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Recent articles related to the financial crisis.

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

 

The Quiet Coup (Simon Johnson)

by Dollars and Sense

This article, which hypothesizes that an "American financial oligarchy" has (re)emerged and is turning the United States into a Banana Republic, is getting a lot of attention. (See our Jan/Feb 2009 cover story for a related argument, though the meat of this one is the financial elite part.) Krugman mentioned it in his March 29th column. And Brad DeLong has a post about it on his blog, with many comments, some of them interesting. The excerpt I'm giving below is not from the beginning of the article, fyi.

The Quiet Coup

By Simon Johnson | The Atlantic | May 2009

...

Becoming a Banana Republic

In its depth and suddenness, the U.S. economic and financial crisis is shockingly reminiscent of moments we have recently seen in emerging markets (and only in emerging markets): South Korea (1997), Malaysia (1998), Russia and Argentina (time and again). In each of those cases, global investors, afraid that the country or its financial sector wouldn't be able to pay off mountainous debt, suddenly stopped lending. And in each case, that fear became self-fulfilling, as banks that couldn't roll over their debt did, in fact, become unable to pay. This is precisely what drove Lehman Brothers into bankruptcy on September 15, causing all sources of funding to the U.S. financial sector to dry up overnight. Just as in emerging-market crises, the weakness in the banking system has quickly rippled out into the rest of the economy, causing a severe economic contraction and hardship for millions of people.

But there's a deeper and more disturbing similarity: elite business interests—financiers, in the case of the U.S.—played a central role in creating the crisis, making ever-larger gambles, with the implicit backing of the government, until the inevitable collapse. More alarming, they are now using their influence to prevent precisely the sorts of reforms that are needed, and fast, to pull the economy out of its nosedive. The government seems helpless, or unwilling, to act against them.

Top investment bankers and government officials like to lay the blame for the current crisis on the lowering of U.S. interest rates after the dotcom bust or, even better—in a "buck stops somewhere else" sort of way—on the flow of savings out of China. Some on the right like to complain about Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, or even about longer-standing efforts to promote broader homeownership. And, of course, it is axiomatic to everyone that the regulators responsible for "safety and soundness" were fast asleep at the wheel.

But these various policies—lightweight regulation, cheap money, the unwritten Chinese-American economic alliance, the promotion of homeownership—had something in common. Even though some are traditionally associated with Democrats and some with Republicans, they all benefited the financial sector. Policy changes that might have forestalled the crisis but would have limited the financial sector's profits—such as Brooksley Born's now-famous attempts to regulate credit-default swaps at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, in 1998—were ignored or swept aside.

The financial industry has not always enjoyed such favored treatment. But for the past 25 years or so, finance has boomed, becoming ever more powerful. The boom began with the Reagan years, and it only gained strength with the deregulatory policies of the Clinton and George W. Bush administrations. Several other factors helped fuel the financial industry's ascent. Paul Volcker's monetary policy in the 1980s, and the increased volatility in interest rates that accompanied it, made bond trading much more lucrative. The invention of securitization, interest-rate swaps, and credit-default swaps greatly increased the volume of transactions that bankers could make money on. And an aging and increasingly wealthy population invested more and more money in securities, helped by the invention of the IRA and the 401(k) plan. Together, these developments vastly increased the profit opportunities in financial services.

Not surprisingly, Wall Street ran with these opportunities. From 1973 to 1985, the financial sector never earned more than 16 percent of domestic corporate profits. In 1986, that figure reached 19 percent. In the 1990s, it oscillated between 21 percent and 30 percent, higher than it had ever been in the postwar period. This decade, it reached 41 percent. Pay rose just as dramatically. From 1948 to 1982, average compensation in the financial sector ranged between 99 percent and 108 percent of the average for all domestic private industries. From 1983, it shot upward, reaching 181 percent in 2007.

The great wealth that the financial sector created and concentrated gave bankers enormous political weight—a weight not seen in the U.S. since the era of J.P. Morgan (the man). In that period, the banking panic of 1907 could be stopped only by coordination among private-sector bankers: no government entity was able to offer an effective response. But that first age of banking oligarchs came to an end with the passage of significant banking regulation in response to the Great Depression; the reemergence of an American financial oligarchy is quite recent.

Read the full article.

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3/31/2009 02:37:00 PM 2 comments links to this post

 

State-Owned Bank in ND Doing Just Fine

by Dollars and Sense

From Mother Jones. The comment section is worth reading; some debate about whether this is the only state-owned bank in the United States. (Doesn't the FDIC own many banks at any given time?) I weighed in, even though I am not so big on commenting on articles, just to contradict some guy who claimed that hedge funds never fail (he was arguing, preposterously, that over-regulation caused the banking crisis).

How the Nation's Only State-Owned Bank Became the Envy of Wall Street

By Josh Harkinson | Fri March 27, 2009 6:33 PM PST

The Bank of North Dakota is the only state-owned bank in America—what Republicans might call an idiosyncratic bastion of socialism. It also earned a record profit last year even as its private-sector corollaries lost billions. To be sure, it owes some of its unusual success to North Dakota's well-insulated economy, which is heavy on agricultural staples and light on housing speculation. But that hasn't stopped out-of-state politicos from beating a path to chilly Bismarck in search of advice. Could opening state-owned banks across America get us out of the financial crisis? It certainly might help, says Ellen Brown, author of the book, Web of Debt, who writes that the Bank of North Dakota, with its $4 billion under management, has avoided the credit freeze by "creating its own credit, leading the nation in establishing state economic sovereignty." Mother Jones spoke with the Bank of North Dakota's president, Eric Hardmeyer.

Mother Jones: How was the bank formed?

Eric Hardmeyer: It was created 90 years ago, in 1919, as a populist movement swept the northern plains. Basically it was a very angry movement by a large group of the agrarian sector that was upset by decisions that were being made in the eastern markets, the money markets maybe in Minneapolis, New York, deciding who got credit and how to market their goods. So it swept the northern plains. In North Dakota the movement was called the Nonpartisan League, and they actually took control of the legislature and created what was called an industrial program, which created both the Bank of North Dakota as a financing arm and a state-owned mill and elevator to market and buy the grain from the farmer. And we're both in existence today doing exactly what we were created for 90 years ago. Only we've morphed a little bit and found other niches and ways to promote the state of North Dakota.

MJ: What makes your bank unique today?

EH: Our funding model, our deposit model is really what is unique as the engine that drives that bank. And that is we are the depository for all state tax collections and fees. And so we have a captive deposit base, we pay a competitive rate to the state treasurer. And I would bet that that would be one of the most difficult things to wrestle away from the private sector—those opportunities to bid on public funds. But that's only one portion of it. We take those funds and then, really what separates us is that we plow those deposits back into the state of North Dakota in the form of loans. We invest back into the state in economic development type of activities. We grow our state through that mechanism.

MJ: Clearly other banks also invest their deposits. Is the difference that you are investing a larger portion of that money into the state's own economy?


EH: Yeah, absolutely. But we have specifically designed programs to spur certain elements of the economy. Whether it's agriculture or economic development programs that are deemed necessary in the state or energy, which now seems to be a huge play in the state. And education—we do a lot of student loan financing. So that's our model. We have a specific mission that was given to us when we were created 90 years ago and it guides us throughout our history.

MJ: Are there areas that you invest in that other banks avoid?

EH: We made the first federally-insured student loan in the country back in 1967. So that's been a big part of what we do. It's become almost a mission-critical thing. I don't know if you have been following the student loan industry lately, but it's been very, very interesting as many have decided to leave. We will not though.

MJ: So you are able to invest in certain areas because they provide a public good.

EH: Yeah, or a direction, whether it's energy or primary sector type of businesses. We have specific loan programs that are designed at very low interest rates to encourage activity along certain lines. Here's another thing: We're gearing up for a significant flood in one of the communities here in North Dakota called Fargo. We've experienced one of those in another community about 12 years ago which prior to Katrina was the largest single evacuation of any community in the United States. And so the Bank of North Dakota, once the flood had receded and there were business needs, we developed a disaster loan program to assist businesses. So we can move quite quickly to aid with different types of scenarios. Whether it's encouraging different economies to grow or dealing with a disaster.

MJ: What do private banks think of you?

EH: The interesting thing about the bank is we understand that we walk a fine line between competing and partnering with the private sector. We were designed and set up to partner with them and not compete with them. So most of the lending that we do is participatory in nature. It's originated by a local bank and we come in and participate in the loan and use some of our programs to share risk, buy down the interest rate. We even provide guarantees similar to SBA to encourage certain activity for entrepreneurial startups. Aside from that, we also act as a bankers' bank or a wholesale bank. So we provide services to banks, whether it's check clearing, liquidity, or bond accounting safekeeping. There's probably 20 other bankers' banks across the country. So we act in that capacity as kind of a little mini-fed actually. And so we service 104 banks and provide liquidity to them and clear their checks and also we buy loans from them when they have a need to overline, whether it's beyond their legal lending limit or they just want to share risk, we'll do that. We're a secondary market for residential loans, so we have a portfolio of $500 to $600 million of residential loans that we buy.
MJ: So what's the advantage of a publicly owned "bankers' bank" instead of a privately owned one?
EH: Our model is we use our deposit base to help [other banks] with funding their loans, even providing fed funds lines with our excess liquidity—we buy and sell fed funds and act as a clearinghouse for check clearing activity. That would be the benefit or different model. We're a depository bank and can bring that to bear.

MJ: If other states had a bank like yours, do you think they would have been more insulated from the credit crisis?

EH: It all gets down the management and management philosophy. We're a fairly conservative lot up here in the upper Midwest and we didn't do any subprime lending and we have the ability to get into the derivatives markets and put on swaps and callers and caps and credit default swaps and just chose not to do it, really chose a Warren Buffett mentality—if we don't understand it, we're not going to jump into it. And so we've avoided all those pitfalls. That's not to say that we're completely immune to everything, certainly we've bought some mortgage-backed securities and we're working through some of those issues, but nothing that would cause us to be concerned.

Read the rest of the interview.

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3/31/2009 02:27:00 PM 1 comments links to this post

 

Companies Suspending 401(k) Contributions

by Dollars and Sense

From the Financial Times, March 11 (hat-tip to The Automatic Earth). The article notes that the median size of a 401(k) account at the end of 2007 was $19,000--probably a lot lower now!

A wave of US companies are suspending payments to their staff 401(k) retirement plans in a bid to cut costs amid the economic downturn.

Saks, General Motors, newspaper group McClatchy, clothing company J.Crew, FedEx, UPS, Coca-Cola Bottling, Reader’s Digest, Motorola, Regions Financial and Sprint Nextel are among the growing list of companies which have suspended contributions.

Even the AARP, the influential advocacy group formerly known as the American Association for Retired Persons, will suspend contributions to its staff 401(k) plan from March 22 for the rest of the year.

The growing number of suspensions appears to strike a blow against the viability of 401(k) plans, which were introduced 30 years ago as the main way that Americans should save for retirement, replacing defined benefit pension plans. Companies typically offered to match employee contributions up to 5 per cent of annual salary.

The average 401(k) plan at the end of 2007 held about $65,000, but half of them held less than $19,000, according to a trade group, the Investment Companies Institute. They would hold much less today because of stockmarket falls. The suspensions mean that individuals can continue to contribute to their plans, but their companies will not.
Read the rest here.

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3/31/2009 10:42:00 AM 0 comments links to this post

 

Foreclosure Crisis Far from Over

by Dollars and Sense

Hat-tip to The Automatic Earth blog for this tidbit, from a recent investment fund memo. Although a majority of subprime mortgages have already seen their rates reset, there are a slew of other adjustable rate mortgages that are not technically subprime but that are likely to produce a huge new wave of foreclosures when their interest rates reset in 2010 and 2011.
A broader profile of mortgage resets is presented below (though even this chart does not include the full range of adjustable mortgage products).


This reset profile is of great concern, because the majority of resets are still ahead. Moreover, the mortgages to which these resets will apply are primarily those originated late in the housing bubble, at the highest prices, and therefore having the largest probable loss.
The whole memo is well worth reading.

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3/31/2009 09:46:00 AM 2 comments links to this post

Monday, March 30, 2009

 

WE20--The People's G20

by Dollars and Sense

A press release; hat-tip to Abby S.

WE20 - THE PEOPLE'S G20

we20, the people's answer to the G20 group of nations, today announces
the launch of its website at we20.org, enabling individual people and
groups anywhere in the world to host their own G20 summits and formulate
plans for economic recovery. In the run-up to the London G20 summit -
and amid fears of street violence as protestors vent their feelings on
the global economy - we20 offers a refreshing alternative: large-scale
community involvement in planning the world's economic revival.

People visiting we20.org can organise their own meetings, in their own
communities, to draw up action plans - local, national or international
- to fix economies. We20 plans are voted on at we20.org and the top
we20 plans have the chance of appearing on the official G20 London
Summit website.

Lord Malloch-Brown, the UK's Foreign Office G20 Minister, has given his
encouragement and advice to we20 meetings through a YouTube video.

we20's twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn Communities are growing fast,
plans have already been submitted to we20.org from the UK and Sweden,
and we20 meetings are pledged in USA, Australia, Sweden, Belgium,
Germany, Sudan, Thailand, Nigeria and the UK, representing communities
in the media industry, local government, students and healthcare
workers. As the we20 movement grows, it's expected that thousands of
we20 meetings will take place around the world through 2009, with a goal
of the first thousand to take place by the end of April 09.

The website at we20.org acts as a facilitator and hub for these
meetings. Visitors to the site can find an existing meeting or set one
up to discuss and agree on a local, national or global challenge, or to
read and vote on plans from other we20 meetings. Each we20 user gets 20
votes to award to the best recovery plans. The organisers of we20 hope
to help favourite we20 plans become future realities as we20 develops.

The we20 concept was hatched on January 6 this year by a group of
volunteers in London who want to help people through the recession. The
site was then developed entirely by voluntary contributions to become
the start of a resource which its organisers hope will grow to be a
public engagement platform alongside the G20.

As a body, we20 is independent and neutral. The plans proposed on the
site belong to the groups which propose them.

Paul Massey, an internet lawyer from London and one of the volunteers
organising we20 in his spare time, says: "The we20 initiative is a neat
idea to help people organise their own G20 meetings of up to 20 people.
There is speculation about what the London G20 Summit will achieve but
we've already seen we20 meetings produce some great action plans to fix
the economy. we20 sees the G20 Summit as a rallying call for everyone to
work together to pull ourselves out of this economic mess."

He continues: "There's no restriction on the challenges addressed and
the plans formulated by people's we20 meetings. They may be directed
towards, local, national or global issues, from the IMF, World Bank or
climate change to local economic issues such as redundancies, plans for
local shops, sports teams or growers' initiatives. we20 is driven by
volunteers and word of mouth, and we are constantly amazed by the
support we are receiving from across the board."

Part of the inspiration for we20 arose from Barack Obama's use of the
internet, demonstrating how ordinary people can make change happen by
connecting on the internet and then meeting face to face.

Massey concludes: "After the G20 Summit, we20 will assess its impact in
consultation with members, continue to encourage the implementation of
we20 plans and work towards future goals including the Copenhagen
Climate Change Summit. we20 hopes to strengthen the policies produced by
the G20, ensure transparency and encourage good governance. Whatever
comes out of the London G20 Summit, we20 looks set to stay as a force of
community empowerment for the longer term."

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3/30/2009 03:41:00 PM 1 comments links to this post

 

Latin America's Reaction to the Crisis

by Dollars and Sense

The Council on Hemispheric Affairs (COHA) has put out a nice summary of the various responses by Latin American governments to the global economic meltdown.

As the G-20 meeting is about to begin in London, the outlook for Latin American growth in 2009 is grim, as the tempo of foreign direct investment (FDI) and loans stand-by credits and development funds plummet, the demand for commodities diminish, and foreign remittances plunge.The World Bank vice president for Latin America and the Caribbean, Pamela Cox, is forecasting 0.3 percent growth for Latin America this year, down from the originally 2.7 percent predicted in January. Cox anticipates that countries most closely linked with the U.S. economy will be hit the hardest. Thus, NAFTA, CAFTA and the U.S.-Caribbean Basin Trade Partnership Act (CBTPA) may prove particularly harmful for Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean in the foreseeable future.

On the other hand, South American nations like Peru and Brazil that have diversified their bilateral trade partners over the last decade, may be less impacted by the global recession. MERCOSUR, UNASUR, ALBA and other South American regional trade agreements could also help to soften the blow on the continent. Nonetheless, much of South America is now experiencing a recession, and the debate on how to most effectively respond to it varies widely among economists.


Click here for COHA's country-by-country analysis.

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3/30/2009 01:12:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

Sunday, March 29, 2009

 

Two Items on Guadeloupe General Strike

by Dollars and Sense

Two items on the recent massive general strike in Guadeloupe. First, from Friday's Democracy Now!:
Labor Victory in Guadeloupe After Six-Week Strike Reverberates Across French Caribbean and France

The financial crisis has had reverberations beyond the United States and Europe, with people taking to the streets in cities across the globe to protest rising wealth inequality and to call for economic and labor rights. Perhaps the most significant action took place in the French Caribbean, on the island of Guadeloupe. Amid rising costs of living, labor leaders in Guadeloupe led a forty-four-day general strike that closed down roads, schools, gas stations and public transportation. The strikers claimed a victory earlier this month with a plan to improve wages and living standards.

Hear it or read it here.

Second, an article on the general strike by Immanuel Wallerstein:
Guadeloupe: Obscure Key to World Crisis

by Immanuel Wallerstein | Released: 1 Mar 2009

Guadeloupe is a tiny island in the Caribbean, the size of greater London. It has a population of about 400,000 persons. The world press hardly ever mentions it. Since January 20, it has been the site of an ongoing general strike, which has managed to get 10% of its population actually marching in the streets, which must be a world record. The strike has been called by Liyannaj Kont Profitasyon (LKP), whose name translates from Creole as "Collective Against 'Profitization' (or outrageous profit)."

The LKP is a collective of 31 trade unions, political parties, and cultural associations, who represent just about the entire civil society. The leadership comes from the UGTG, an independent local trade union that received a majority of the votes in the last trade-union elections (in an official French system called élections prud'hommales).

The LKP issued a list of 126 demands addressed to four groups—three levels of the French state (the national government, the region, and the department) plus the employers. Most of these demands concerned economic matters. But as the French minister in charge of dealing with overseas zones of France, Yves Jego, said, beyond these economic demands there is a "societal" crisis. This is a polite way of saying that the strike is not merely about bread and butter. It is also a profoundly anticolonial movement. And it is this combination that makes what is going on in this small and obscure part of the world a key to the world crisis in which we all find ourselves.

Read the rest of the article.

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3/29/2009 02:59:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

Mike Davis on Socialism on Bill Moyers

by Dollars and Sense

From the folks at SolidarityEconomy.net. Video is probably available somewhere, too.

Bill Moyers Talks with Mike Davis on the Economic Crisis

March 20, 2009

BILL MOYERS: For all the talk on the cable channels and in the blogosphere, you would think Washington has been invaded and conquered. Remember that scary movie from the 1950's, INVASION OF THE BODY SNATCHERS? MALE VOICE: Everyone! They're here already! You're next! You're next!

Many film scholars believe the movie is a paranoid parable, warning of a Communist takeover of America. But today, the body snatchers are you ready for this? Socialists! That's right. Socialists, reportedly swarming over the city and making off with the means of production, namely the Federal budget. I'm not making this up. Newsweek was the first to spot the aliens a month ago and it was us. Here's the headline of a recent article on Salon.com. Newt Gingrich, reincarnated once again as himself, sounds as if Obama ate his Contract with America for lunch and coughed it up as "European Socialism."

NEWT GINGRICH: I think it is the boldest effort to create a European Socialism model that we have seen.

BILL MOYERS: But the ghosts being conjured in the corridors of power aren't those great American radicals Eugene V. Debs or Norman Thomas. No, Stalin, Marx and Lenin have risen from the grave, stalking our highest officials. Just listen to CNBC's Jim Cramer:

JIM CRAMER: We're in real trouble. We're in real trouble between what is happening in the world economy and our president, who seems to be taking his cues from. Guess who he is taking his cues from? No, not Mao! Not Pancho Villa, although I had lunch with him today. No he's taking cues from Lenin! And I don't mean the all we need is love Lenin. I talking about we will take every last dime you have Cramericans Lenin!

BILL MOYERS: And others followed suit:
RUSH LIMBAUGH: Liberal democrats and the drive-by media are speeding down the highway, implementing Socialism as fast as they can.

FOX & FRIENDS: Some economists say the stimulus plan that President Obama just put into law moves us closer to Socialism.

FOX COMMENTATOR: One small step for fixing the economy or one giant leap towards Socialism in the United States?

PAT BUCHANAN: That is Socialism pure and simple.

BILL MOYERS: So what does a real live Socialist think about all this? We consulted the Endangered Species Act and actually found one, way out to the People's Republic of Southern California. That state's economy has tanked with one of the country's highest number foreclosures and unemployment above 10% and climbing. California is a financial earthquake off the Richter scale. All of this is grist for the socialist writer and historian who is sitting with me now. Once a meat cutter and a long haul truck driver, nowadays, Mike Davis teaches creative writing at the University of California, Riverside. This recipient of a MacArthur Foundation "genius grant" has written so many books we can barely get them on the screen for you. Two of his histories of Los Angeles and Southern California, CITY OF QUARTZ and ECOLOGY OF FEAR were best-sellers. His latest: IN PRAISE OF BARBARIANS: ESSAYS AGAINST EMPIRE. Mike Davis, welcome to the JOURNAL.

MIKE DAVIS: My pleasure, Bill.

BILL MOYERS: Did you ever in your life imagine that America's financial system would become insolvent or that our way of life would be in such a sudden freefall?

MIKE DAVIS: No. And I found myself in the position of, say, a Jehovah's Witness, who, of course, believes the end is nigh but then one morning wakes up, looks out the window, and the stars are falling from heaven. It's actually happened. Of course, people a lot like myself are famous for I think the phrase is we predicted eleven out of the last three depressions. So, no.

BILL MOYERS: But I do think this time most everyone would agree with what you how you've described what we're going through as the mother of all fiscal crisis. Do you have a sense of the people you know being frightened right now?

MIKE DAVIS: Oh, people are terrified, particularly where I teach in Riverside County. People have no idea you know, where to turn. UC Riverside is the largest percentage of working-class students in the UC system. And their families have scrimped and saved. And they've worked hard to get into courses that pointed toward stable careers and jobs. And now those futures are incinerated. What kind of choice do you make? You know, what do you study?

BILL MOYERS: You wrote an essay on one of my favorite websites, TomDispatch.com, in which you asked this question. "Can Obama see the Grand Canyon?" Now, help us understand the use of that metaphor.

MIKE DAVIS: Well, the first explorers to visit the Grand Canyon, simply were overwhelmed. They couldn't visualize the Grand Canyon because they had no concept for it. That is, there was no analogue in their cultural experience, no comparable landscape that would allow them to make sense of what they were seeing. It actually took ten years of heroic scientific effort by John Wesley Powell and these great geologists, Clarence Sutton, before he was truly able to see the Grand Canyon in the sense that we see it now as a deep slice in Earth history. Before you just had confused images and, you know, feelings of vertigo. And so the reason I raised this is that do we really have an analogy? Do we have the concepts to understand the nature of the current crisis other than to step back shaking from the brink and say this is profound? Because, you know, we're in this situation where not only do we seem to be having a second depression, but this is occurring in the context of epochal climate change. It's occurring at a time when the two major benchmarks that survived for global social progress, the United Nations millennial goals for relieving poverty and child mortality, on one hand, and the Kyoto goals for reducing greenhouse admissions, both of those sets of goals are clearly not going to be achieved. They slowly failed. This would be a time of fierce urgency in any sense. And now we face a meltdown of a world economy in a way that no one anticipated, truly anticipated the possibility of another recession, even a financial crisis, but no one counted on the ability of this to happen in such a synchronized, almost simultaneous way across the world.

Read the rest of the transcript.

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3/29/2009 01:00:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

The G20 Summit and Unions

by Dollars and Sense

From a blog I think I hadn't seen before (hat-tip to LF), Labor Is Not a Commodity. I will add it to our blogroll.

The G20 Summit and Unions

Tim Newman, Campaigns Assistant, International Labor Rights Forum

Next week, representatives of G-20 governments will be meeting in London to discuss strategies for addressing the global economic crisis. As working people around the world are facing the LondonSummit-resized consequences of this crisis, unions are responding with their own proposals for the G-20.

This Monday, the International Trade Union Confederation (ITUC) released a "London Declaration" that focuses on five key policy recommendations for the G-20:
  • a coordinated international recovery and sustainable growth plan to create jobs and ensure public investment;
  • nationalization of insolvent banks and new financial regulations;
  • action to combat the risk of wage deflation and reverse decades of increasing inequality;
  • far-reaching action on climate change;
  • a new international legal framework to regulate the global economy along with reform of the global financial and economic institutions (IMF, World Bank, OECD, WTO).

You can read the full document online here. The introduction to the declaration states,
Workers around the world, who are losing their jobs and their homes, are the innocent victims of this crisis: a crisis precipitated by greed and incompetence in the financial sector, but which is underpinned by the policies of privatisation, liberalisation and labour market deregulation of recent decades. The effects of these policies—stagnating wages, cuts in social protection, erosion of workers' rights, increased precarious work, and financialisation—have combined to increase inequality and vulnerability...

When our economies begin to recover there can be no return to 'business as usual'. The crisis must mark the end of an ideology of unfettered financial markets, where self-regulation has been exposed as a fraud and greed has overridden rational judgement to the detriment of the real economy. A new national and global regulatory architecture needs to be built, which restores financial markets to their primary function of ensuring stable and cost-effective financing of productive investment in the real economy. Beyond this, there is a need to establish a new model of economic development that is economically efficient, socially just and environmentally sustainable. It must bring to an end the policies that have generated massive inequality over the past two decades.

While all of ITUC's policy recommendations are very important, the third recommendation definitely requires attention. As the full declaration explains, wage deflation and increasing inequality can be reversed in part "by extending the coverage of collective bargaining and strengthening wage setting institutions so as to establish a decent floor in labour markets."

Here in the US, a report released this week by Government Accountability Office [we blogged on this NYT article here; it's the article that quotes Kim Bobo. —D&S] showed that the Department of Labor's Wage and Hour Division is failing in its role of protecting workers from wage theft, child labor and other abuses. With a new Secretary of Labor, it is vital that the government strictly enforce the labor laws we already have on the books. We also need to take additional steps to ensure that workers can use collective bargaining agreements to improve wages and working conditions. That means passing the Employee Free Choice Act (EFCA) as a first step. EFCA is an important part of ensuring that US workers are able to exercise the freedom of association and the right to collective bargaining.

At the G20 summit in London, it is also essential that world leaders support alternative systems and Egg_a_Politician policies that can improve the lives of the workers facing poverty. Divine Chocolate, a pioneering Fair Trade chocolate company co-owned by cocoa farmers in Ghana, has shown that paying a fair price to farmers does more than create a sustainable future for a few farmers -- it is a model that can be replicated on a mass scale. Divine set up a new website where you can "Egg a Politician" -- meaning that you can toss a chocolate egg at one of the G20 leaders and then send them a message telling them to keep fair trade on the agenda.

Unfortunately, I fear that the representatives at the G-20 will not be promoting policies focused on reducing inequality, protecting workers' rights and promoting fair trade. Labor rights advocates globally will have to keep the pressure on governments to support better policies and work together to raise standards for workers everywhere. As one example, workers all across the Americas are participating in an upcoming Continental Day of Action against the Crisis. How do you think unions and worker organizations around the world can work together to address the impact of the global economic crisis on workers?

[This is the full post, though I didn't reproduce all the hyperlinks; to see them click here.]

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3/29/2009 11:55:00 AM 3 comments links to this post

 

Trust Your Guts (Greider)

by Dollars and Sense

Joe Nocera likes Geithner's new plan. William Greider, not so much. Here is an excerpt from his recent article in The Nation. Hat-tip to LF.
Some points I recommend people consider:

1. Euthanasia for insolvent banks. Transferring their losses to the public will not restore the trillions in capital the bankers helped destroy. It would merely relieve the banks, their creditors and shareholders of the pain. Government must take control of the system to supervise a just unwinding of the mess--whether we call it nationalization or something else. Handing out money and leaving bankers in control of how it's spent is nutty and morally wrong. People everywhere understand this. Only Washington seems oblivious to the irrationality of what it is attempting.

2. The Federal Reserve must be democratized and effectively stripped of its peculiar antidemocratic status as an unaccountable island of power within the government. A new federal agency--accountable to Congress and the president--can be refashioned from the working parts of the Fed. Call it a central bank or something else, but its governing power must not rest with heavyweight bankers on the board of directors at the twelve regional banks. (To understand why, consider that the New York Federal Reserve Bank was headed until recently by Geithner.)

3. The reformed Fed would be confined to conducting monetary policy and stripped of its regulatory functions. A different section of the Treasury or a new free-standing regulatory agency can assume responsibility for regulation and be armed with strong antitrust laws and other rules to ensure that "too big to fail" institutions are redefined as "too big to save."

4. The federal law against usury can be restored to halt predatory lending. Persistent violators would not be fined with trivial penalties, as they are now, but stripped of their government protections and subsidies--that is, doomed.

5. A new banking system--smaller and more diverse and responsible to the public interest--can fill the hole left by the demise of major banks like Citigroup. Vast public resources should be devoted to creating this system, not to saving the mastodons. Public banks (like the North Dakota State Bank) and nonprofit savings and lending cooperatives can also serve as an important cross-check on private commercial banking--a competitive model that offers credit on nonusurious terms and keeps the big boys honest.

6. Once the Federal Reserve is domesticated in a democratic fashion, then it can be reformed to assume broad supervision of the nonbank financial firms in the "shadow banking system"--hedge funds, private equity firms, pension funds, mutual funds, insurance companies. (For more on this, see my recent Nation article, "Fixing the Fed.")

7. Our first political challenge is to disturb business as usual in Washington and prevent Congress from taking hasty action to adopt Wall Street's "reform" agenda. Congress is rattled by the exploding popular anger and listening nervously. The people need to speak louder--loud enough for the president to hear.

Read the full article.

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3/29/2009 11:09:00 AM 1 comments links to this post

Friday, March 27, 2009

 

Obama vs. Cuomo on Bank Investigations

by Dollars and Sense

From Bloomberg:

Obama Backs Banks, Seeks to Block Fair-Lending Probe

By Greg Stohr

March 26 (Bloomberg) -- The Obama administration's call for greater financial regulation may have its limits.

The administration late yesterday urged the U.S. Supreme Court to bar New York and other states from enforcing their fair-lending and other consumer-protection laws against federally chartered banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co.

The legal brief, which adopts the Bush administration's position, is a setback for consumer and civil-rights groups that had urged President Barack Obama's team to switch positions. The filing puts the administration at odds with New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo over the respective roles of state and federal regulators. The high court will hear arguments April 28.

"National banks are created by the government to serve federal purposes," argued Solicitor General Elena Kagan, the Obama administration's top courtroom lawyer. "Oversight of the banks is therefore principally entrusted to the United States."

The court filing coincides with this week's proposal by the administration to put large hedge funds, private-equity firms and derivatives under federal supervision for the first time.

Reviving Investigation

Cuomo is seeking to revive an investigation, begun by predecessor Eliot Spitzer, into the real-estate lending practices of units of JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and HSBC Holdings Plc. A lower court barred the probe, saying a regulation issued by the U.S. Comptroller of the Currency blocks state scrutiny of national banks.

The case will determine whether federal regulators have exclusive governmental authority to press fair-lending and other types of complaints against national banks. More broadly, the case will shape how much ability agencies have to shield companies from state-level scrutiny.

Kagan filed the brief on behalf of the OCC, an independent Treasury Department bureau still being run by Republican appointee John Dugan, whose term expires in 2010. Obama has decided to retain Dugan, two people familiar with the decision said last month.

"We're disappointed to see it," said Gail Hillebrand, a San Francisco-based Consumers Union attorney who had sent a letter urging the administration to switch sides in the case. "We hope they just haven't gotten around to getting rid of those regulations. It's certainly a missed opportunity."

Read the rest of the article (it's short).

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3/27/2009 01:17:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

Single-Payer Updates

by Dollars and Sense

First, we noticed this excellent webpage, with links and resources on single-payer, from Physicians for a National Health Care Program.

Second, our friend Dr. Christine Adams, who is statewide secretary of Health Care for All Texas, sent us her response to an article in Wednesday's WSJ by Laura Meckler. It's an excellent summary of reasons in favor of single-payer. Here it is:

Dear Ms. Meckler,

I am a supporter of single payer national health care as proposed by
HR 676 (John Conyers, D-Michigan). All other health care reform
proposals involve some type of subsidy to private for-profit health
plans via low to moderate income households. It makes no sense to
subsidize private, for-profit health plans just for us to have the
privilege of having private companies continue to play a central role
in health care financing. Medicare Advantage is a perfect example of
that model. For the privilege of continuing to include for-profit
private health plans, the U.S. taxpayer gets to pay 14%-20% more per
Medicare recipient than for those in traditional Medicare (a single
payer model, albeit imperfect). For the privilege, we do not get any
value for our extra tax dollars. Medicare Advantage members do not
have better medical outcomes and frequently they have worse medical
outcomes - even though Medicare Advantage programs cherry-pick the
healthiest in the Medicare pool. And where do we find our best
medical outcomes at the best price? Our socialized medicine Veterans
Administration Medical System.

No other nation that is controlling health care costs while
maintaining quality has for-profit health insurance companies playing
a central role in health care financing because it cannot be done.
Other nations that include private health plans have placed heavy
regulations on them so that they cannot make profits, must offer
standard, comprehensive benefits, cannot exclude anyone or restrict
treatment and must go to the government (the citizenry) to get
permission to raise premiums. Nations that still include private
plans, still spend more than nations that have either adopted single
payer or straight-forward socialized medical systems (England, Spain).
Economically, it will cost you more to include private health plans
even if they are regulated. At any rate, I doubt our American
for-profit health plans would ever agree to the level of regulation it
would take to control costs, even without making health care
universal.

Frankly, I don't understand why conservatives in Congress, such as
Sen. Grassley, would even consider subsidizing or protecting
for-profit health plans from a public competitor. If a public health
plan could deliver good care for less money, why wouldn't we want that
system? Why would we want to use tax dollars to subsidize a
for-profit health plan? I already pay for-profit health plans plenty
of money for not much back in the way of health benefits. I don't
want to direct more of my tax dollars to them just to keep them in
business. They are not an industry vital to our national security. In
fact, they suck up so much in the way of resources without adding
value back, they are a drain on our economy and our health. They are
detrimental to our well being in the same way that companies that
pollute are detrimental to our well being.

Two Nobel prize winners in economics, Drs. Joseph Stiglitz and Paul
Krugman, have publicly stated that single payer makes the most sense
for health care reform. They don't strike me as socialists or
anti-business. To support a health reform measure that props up a
private business when a public entity could do as good a job for less
money seems opposite to what a conservative would support. When the
data from so many forms of national health insurance, none of which
include for-profit private health plans, are so clearly providing as
good or better medical outcomes as we have here in the U.S. but with
half the money and for all their people, I can only conclude that this
resistance by a minority to single payer comes from irrational fears
based on myths and outdated ideas in the same way that anti women's
suffrage and anti integration are now seen as wrongheaded.
Unfortunately, this minority position of pro for-profit, subsidized
private health plans appears to have the ear of the Obama
Administration—at least for the time being.

Dr. Christine Adams
Statewide Secretary, Health Care for All Texas
Member, Physicians for a National Health Program

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3/27/2009 11:18:00 AM 2 comments links to this post

Thursday, March 26, 2009

 

New Home Sales Fell In February, Not Rose

by Dollars and Sense

From Barry Ritholtz in the RGE Monitor:

WSJ: Sales of new homes rose in February for the first time in seven months, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday, another sign that the housing market is thawing

Bloomberg: Purchases of new homes in the U.S. unexpectedly rose in February from a record low as plummeting prices and cheaper mortgage rates lured some buyers. Sales increased 4.7 percent to an annual pace of 337,000 . . .

Marketwatch: The U.S. housing sector continues to see signs of improvement. The latest government data showed new home sales climbed in February for the first time in seven months, sending shares of home-building companies soaring.

The parade of the mathematically innumerate business writers continue to misread data. The latest evidence? New Home Sales.

After incorrectly reporting the Existing Home Sales, the mainstream media misread the Census department report of New Homes.

No, New Home Sales data did not improve. In fact, they were not only not positive, they were actually horrific. The year over year number was a terrible down 41%. Sales from this same period a year ago have nearly been halved.

Why did the media report this as positive? If you only read the headline number, you saw a positive datapoint: February was plus 4.7% over January.

To get the the facts, you need to read below the headline. In the present case, it wasn't the seasonality factor that was confusing, it was the "90-percent confidence intervals"—or as it is more commonly known, the margin of error.

From the Census Bureau:

Sales of new one-family houses in February 2009 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 337,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.7 percent (+/-18.3%)* above the revised January rate of 322,000, but is 41.1 percent (+/-7.9%) below the February 2008 estimate of 572,000.

The median sales price of new houses sold in February 2009 was $200,900; the average sales price was $251,000. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of February was 330,000. This represents a supply of 12.2 months at the current sales rate.

Note that the month over month data at 4.7% - plus or minus 18.3% - is statistically insignificant. (i.e., meaningless). The reported data does not inform us if sales improved month-over-month or not. It is a range, from down -13.6% to plus 23%. Since "zero" is part of that range, we can draw no conclusion. As the Census Department itself notes, "the change is not statistically significant; that is, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease."

The data does however, tell us that the year-over-year sales fell 41.1% plus or minus 7.9% gives us a range of -49% to -33.2%. The entire range is negative, therefore we can conclude sales fell year-over-year.

These are facts. This is data. This is how you interpret it. Most of the MSM reports (WSJ, Marketwatch, Bloomberg) were simply wrong.

Not nuanced, not shaded, but 2+2=5 wrong.

Let me remind that many of these folks incorrectly misinformed you that Housing wasn't getting worse in 2006, 2007 and 2008 - just as Home sales and prices went into an historic freefall. Now, these same folks are misinforming you that Housing has turned around and is improving. That is simply unsupported by the data.

(And don't even ask about television - they simply read the wrong news. Here is a life lesson for you: Never believe news people who read teleprompters. They have no idea what they are doing, they are reading what someone else wrote. When it comes to data interpretation, they are quite literally clueless. Rely on news readers to your personal financial detriment).

The bottom line: Learn to interpret data correctly. Avoid using the people who cannot do so as primary news sources.

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3/26/2009 06:56:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

Official Unemployment Numbers Grim

by Dollars and Sense

The latest official unemployment numbers from the Labor Department show continuing deterioration in the job market, setting a record for the ninth straight week.

Seasonally adjusted first time claims for unemployment insurance rose by 8,000 to 652,000, compared to 367,000 a year ago.

The total number of people claiming benefits for more than a week increased by 122,000 to 5.56 million, the highest total since record-keeping began in 1967. This number a year ago was 2.8 million. Adding in the people that are receiving extended unemployment benefits under a special program approved by Congress brings the total to 7.03 million.

The official unemployment rate is now at 8.1%, the highest in 25 years.

Long-term jobless claims have jumped by over 100,000 four times in the past five weeks, indicating that companies continue to shed workers at a rapid rate.

Again, these are the official numbers. As grim as they are, a more accurate assessment would give us an unemployment rate of 14.8% for February. This is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' "U6" category that includes "Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers,* plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers."

*Marginally attached workers are "people who are neither working nor currently looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work at some time in the recent past," according to Steve Haugen, an economist at the Bureau of Labor Statistics.


One out of every eight workers.

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3/26/2009 01:14:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

Wage Theft (NYT, ABC News!)

by Dollars and Sense

Kim Bobo, director of Interfaith Worker Justice and author of Wage Theft in America (which we excerpted here and here), appeared on Good Morning America yesterday:



Plus, Tuesday's New York Times had a great article by Steven Greenhouse on nonenforcement of labor regulations by the Labor Department. The GAO report that is the focus of the article actually uses the term "wage theft":
Labor Agency Is Failing Workers, Report Says

By STEVEN GREENHOUSE | March 24, 2009

The federal agency charged with enforcing minimum wage, overtime and many other labor laws is failing in that role, leaving millions of workers vulnerable, Congressional auditors have found.

In a report scheduled to be released Wednesday, the Government Accountability Office found that the agency, the Labor Department's Wage and Hour Division, had mishandled 9 of the 10 cases brought by a team of undercover agents posing as aggrieved workers.

In one case, the division failed to investigate a complaint that under-age children in Modesto, Calif., were working during school hours at a meatpacking plant with dangerous machinery, the G.A.O., the nonpartisan auditing arm of Congress, found.

When an undercover agent posing as a dishwasher called four times to complain about not being paid overtime for 19 weeks, the division's office in Miami failed to return his calls for four months, and when it did, the report said, an official told him it would take 8 to 10 months to begin investigating his case.

"This investigation clearly shows that Labor has left thousands of actual victims of wage theft who sought federal government assistance with nowhere to turn," the report said. "Unfortunately, far too often the result is unscrupulous employers' taking advantage of our country's low-wage workers."

The report pointed to a cavalier attitude by many Wage and Hour Division investigators, saying they often dropped cases when employers did not return calls and sometimes told complaining workers that they should file lawsuits, an often expensive and arduous process, especially for low-wage workers.

During the nine-month investigation, the report said, 5 of the 10 labor complaints that undercover agents filed were not recorded in the Wage and Hour Division's database, and three were not investigated. In two cases, officials recorded that employers had paid back wages, even though they had not.

The accountability office also investigated hundreds of cases that it said the Wage and Hour Division had mishandled. In one, the division waited 22 months to investigate a complaint from a group of restaurant workers. Ultimately, investigators found that the workers were owed $230,000 because managers had made them work off the clock and had misappropriated tips. When the restaurant agreed to pay back wages but not the tips, investigators simply closed the case.

In another case, the accountability office found that workers at a boarding school in Montana were not paid more than $200,000 in overtime. But when the employer offered to pay only $1,000 in back wages as the two-year statute of limitations approached, the division dropped the case.

"We have a crisis in wage theft, and the Department of Labor has not been aggressive enough in recent years," said Kim Bobo, executive director of Interfaith Worker Justice, a group that advocates for low-wage workers. "The new secretary of labor says she's the new sheriff in town, but I'm concerned she's facing the wild, wild West of wage theft."

Read the rest of the article.

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3/26/2009 12:14:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

 

Why Georgists Correctly Predicted the Crisis

by Polly Cleveland

For more on the Georgists, Henry George, and the idea of a land tax, see this excellent sidebar D&S co-editor Amy Gluckman wrote to Mason Gaffney's excellent article about how a land tax helped rebuild San Francisco in 1906, and could be used to rebuild New Orleans after Katrina.

Why Georgists Correctly Predicted the Crisis, and Why Conventional Economists Couldn't

Land bubbles of varying severity and universality recur roughly every eighteen to twenty years. Like Henry George, modern Georgists attribute recessions and depressions to these bubbles. A huge real estate bubble of the 1920's preceded the Depression of the 1930's. That bubble actually began to burst in 1926, three years before the stock market crash of 1929. So when "house values" exploded around the world during the last decade and then began to decline in 2006, many of us predicted the worst. I even convinced my husband it was time to sell our property--but alas, too late.

A few prominent economists recognized the bubble's threat, notably Karl Case and Robert Shiller of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. But most economists didn't see the crisis coming until it ran them over. Why couldn't they see what Georgists saw? (Non-economists can skip to the last paragraph.)

1. Like Adam Smith and other classical economists, Georgists assume a three-factor world: land, labor and capital, earning economic rent, wages and interest respectively. But starting in the early 20th century, conventional economics merged land into capital. Land disappeared so completely that Robert Solow could joke in 1955 that "...if God had meant there to be more than two factors of production, He would have made it easier for us to draw three dimensional diagrams."

2. Conventional economics airbrushes out economic rent. The National Income and Product Accounts omit or conceal rent. They exclude even realized capital gains, let alone unrealized gains. They lump rent received by business into profits. When I teach micro I have to explain to students that those cute little triangles we label "consumer surplus" and "producer surplus" are really economic rent.

3. Conventional microeconomics is static. Textbooks incorporate discounted present value poorly, or omit it altogether. In teaching micro, I've had to write a special section on discounting--after all, someday, students will buy houses and take out mortgages. Bubbles are just unrealistic projections of rent, capitalized into the present. Without discounting, how can we understand them? (Mind you, many Georgists don't understand discounting either; they explain bubbles as the work of "speculators." But at least they know bubbles are destructive.)

4. Conventional macroeconomics tosses out the good part of micro, namely, marginal analysis. So in conventional macro, all taxes are alike, all consumer spending is alike, all saving and investment is alike. Economists can truly believe that it's good for the economy now to borrow money (from whom?) and spend it on roads and bridges. How can they understand that overspending on infrastructure stimulates bubbles?

5. Conventional economics disregards a central Georgist assumption: distribution of wealth matters. Moreover, the tax and subsidy system is rigged to drive rent to the top of the heap. This very rigging of the system also encourages bubbles. So the Georgist cure is to reverse the rigging, capture the rent and redistribute it to society either in the form of public goods, or directly as tax credits or grants. That's a dangerously radical idea.

One hundred years ago, Georgists allied with Progressives to form a powerful movement for political and fiscal reform. In The Corruption of Economics, Mason Gaffney argues that neoclassical economics assumed its blinkers precisely to thwart that movement--leaving modern economists helpless.

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3/25/2009 04:01:00 PM 4 comments links to this post

 

Common Security Clubs

by Dollars and Sense


An exciting new project spearheaded by Chuck Collins, D&S Associate, and of the Institute for Policy Studies.

'Common Security Club' as an Organizing Form for the Solidarity Economy

By Chuck Collins

The common security club model was born out of work done in the last few years by people struggling with overwhelming indebtedness. Participants spend some time discussing the root causes of the economic crisis, drawing on readings and materials provided by the network. But they mostly focus on what they can do together to increase their economic security and press for policy changes.

"What becomes clear to participants is we are facing some major economic and ecological changes," said Andree Zaleska from the Boston office of Institute for Policy Studies, who is coordinating clubs in the Northeast. "We are not going back to some golden age of economic growth based on empire, unfettered capitalism, and cheap energy—nor do we want to! We have to prepare ourselves and our communities for transformation."

As theologian Walter Brueggemann writes we need to shift from "autonomy to covenantal existence, from anxiety to divine abundance, and from acquisitive greed to neighborly generosity." Common security club participants are experimenting with ways to make the practical, political, and spiritual changes this entails.

The three main functions of the clubs are:

1) Learn and reflect
Through popular education tools, videos, Bible study, and shared readings, participants increase their understanding of the larger economic forces on our lives. Why is the economy in distress? How did these changes happen? What are the historical factors? How does this connect to the global economy? What are the ecological factors contributing to the changes? What is our vision for a healthy, sustainable economy? What are the sources of real security in my life?

2) Mutual aid and local action
Through stories, examples, Web-based resources, a workbook, and mutual support, participants reflect on what makes them secure. What can we do together to increase our economic security at the local level? What would it mean to respond to my economic challenges in community? How can I reduce my economic vulnerability in conjunction with others? How can I get out of debt? How can I help my neighbor facing foreclosure or economic insecurity? Can I downscale and reduce my consumption and ecological footprint and save money?

3) Social action
The economic crisis is in part the result of an unengaged citizenry and government. What can we do together to build an economy based on building healthy communities rather than shoring up the casino economy? What public policies would make our communities more secure? Through discussion and education, participants might find ways to engage in a larger program of change around the financial system, economic development, tax policy, and other elements of our shared economic life.

Clubs can be autonomous or affiliated with an existing institution, secular or religious. The ideal size is 10 to 20 adults who make a commitment to an initial five meetings with a facilitator. Clubs then decide whether to continue meeting and self-manage. Starter sessions have been developed and include "The Roots of the Economic Crisis," "Personal Re sponses to Economic and Ecological Change," "Things We Can Do Together," and "Actions to Transform the Economy."

Among the things "we can do together," the clubs examine stories and examples of various economic and mutual aid activities. These have included teaming up to help each other weatherize their homes, helping each other rework their personal budgets and reduce debt, and forming food-buying clubs. Faith-based groups weave together reflection, prayer, and action.

"We can't be a bank for each other," said club participant Paul Monroe of Boston. "But there are so many things we can do to support one another and increase our economic security."

One group, convened by a group of Haitian women in the Boston neighborhood of Dorchester, decided to push back against their credit card companies. "Everyone was paying really high fees," observed Charlotte Desire, who coordinated the group. "One of our best moments was when everyone in our group called their credit card company and threatened to cut up their cards unless fees were waived and interest rates were cut." Almost everyone in the group was able to save hundreds of dollars in interest payments and fees.

Gerald Taylor, a veteran congregation-based organizer in Charlotte, North Carolina, has led discussions with several groups about what a healthy and democratic debt system would require. "All our religious traditions have prohibitions on usury for a reason," said Taylor. "So what would a fair and transparent credit system look like?"

"We are piloting about a dozen common security clubs in different places and with very different groups," said Zaleska, describing the efforts in her region. "We're testing out several different curricula. Some clubs are pressing members of Congress to reform the casino economy, stop foreclosures, and pass an economic stimulus package."

Whatever shape or focus members choose to take, common security clubs are pushing against the social isolation that may accompany a recession or depression. "I see the hurt and anxiety in my congregation—and how people privatize their pain," says Cecilia Kingman. "This is a chance for us to be real with each other."

These clubs are also one of many building blocks that can move us toward a "solidarity economy" that affirms our true interconnection with one another. Coming together is a way to remind ourselves of the abundance we have, the wealth of our relationships and networks, and the mutuality of our economic security.

Chuck Collins is an On the Commons Fellow and senior scholar at the Institute for Policy Studies, where he directs the Program on Inequality and the Common Good. He is co-author with Mary Wright of The Moral Measure of the Economy (Orbis, 2007).

This is an excerpt of an article that originally appeared in Sojourners magazine, February 2009. For information on how to start or join a common security club, click here.

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3/25/2009 03:22:00 PM 2 comments links to this post

 

Pensions In Peril

by Dollars and Sense

Those with their retirements in 401(k) plans have taken a huge hit. Those with defined pension plans aren't free of the carnage.

From the Boston Globe:

Under a law that took effect last year, underfunded pension plans may be forced to limit lump-sum payments and suspend cost-of-living increases for retirees. In addition, some plans could be frozen, preventing current employees from earning credit for additional years on the job.



"Companies are going to have to make drastic decisions about their pension plans," said Peter Austin, executive director of BNY Mellon Pension Services, which advises businesses on retirement plans.

Pension funds are typically invested in a mix of stocks, bonds, and other securities, most of which have fallen sharply. By some estimates, thousands of pension plans could be affected by the law because their funds have become so depleted. Watson Wyatt Worldwide, a consulting firm, estimated pension assets declined 26 percent in 2008. The firm also reported the 100 largest US pensions were just 79 percent funded in 2008, compared with 109 percent funded at the end of 2007. That means they have 79 cents set aside for every dollar owed to current and future retirees.

About one-third of employees nationwide participate in a traditional or defined benefit pension plan, according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute, a Washington nonprofit.

The law has already started affecting some local employers. For instance, Boston book publisher Houghton-Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Co., notified its 5,000 employees last week that effective April 1 they no longer have the option of receiving a lump-sum payout at retirement. Now, they can only receive half the money, with the rest paid in traditional monthly payments.

"We had no choice," said Houghton-Mifflin spokesman Josef Blumenfeld. "The law doesn't leave us with any latitude."


Full article here

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3/25/2009 02:44:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

Successful bank rescue still far away (Martin Wolf)

by Dollars and Sense

Interesting piece by Martin Wolf of the Financial Times.

By Martin Wolf | March 24 2009 19:24

I am becoming ever more worried. I never expected much from the Europeans or the Japanese. But I did expect the US, under a popular new president, to be more decisive than it has been. Instead, the Congress is indulging in a populist frenzy; and the administration is hoping for the best.

If anybody doubts the dangers, they need only read the latest analysis from the International Monetary Fund. It expects world output to shrink by between 0.5 per cent and 1 per cent this year and the economies of the advanced countries to shrink by between 3 and 3.5 per cent. This is unquestionably the worst global economic crisis since the 1930s.

One must judge plans for stimulating demand and rescuing banking systems against this grim background. Inevitably, the focus is on the US, epicentre of the crisis and the world's largest economy. But here explosive hostility to the financial sector has emerged. Congress is discussing penal retrospective taxation of bonuses not just for the sinking insurance giant, AIG, but for all recipients of government money under the troubled assets relief programme (Tarp) and Andrew Cuomo, New York State attorney-general, seeks to name recipients of bonuses at assisted companies. This, of course, is an invitation to a lynching.

Yet it is clear why this is happening: the crisis has broken the American social contract: people were free to succeed and to fail, unassisted. Now, in the name of systemic risk, bail-outs have poured staggering sums into the failed institutions that brought the economy down. The congressional response is a disaster. If enacted these ideas would lead to an exodus of qualified employees from US banks, undermine willingness to expand credit, destroy confidence in deals struck with the government and threaten the rule of law. I presume legislators expect the president to save them from their folly. That such ideas can even be entertained is a clear sign of the rage that exists.

This is also the background for the "public/private partnership investment programme" announced on Monday by the US Treasury secretary, Tim Geithner. In the Treasury's words, "using $75bn to $100bn in Tarp capital and capital from private investors, the public/private investment programme will generate $500bn in purchasing power to buy legacy assets—with the potential to expand to $1 trillion over time". Under the scheme, the government provides virtually all the finance and bears almost all the risk, but it uses the private sector to price the assets. In return, private investors obtain rewards—perhaps generous rewards—based on their performance, via equity participation, alongside the Treasury.

I think of this as the "vulture fund relief scheme". But will it work? That depends on what one means by "work". This is not a true market mechanism, because the government is subsidising the risk-bearing. Prices may not prove low enough to entice buyers or high enough to satisfy sellers. Yet the scheme may improve the dire state of banks' trading books. This cannot be a bad thing, can it? Well, yes, it can, if it gets in the way of more fundamental solutions, because almost nobody—certainly not the Treasury—thinks this scheme will end the chronic under-capitalisation of US finance. Indeed, it might make clearer how much further the assets held on longer-term banking books need to be written down.

Read the rest of the article.

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3/25/2009 12:47:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

Hey Paul Krugman (A Song, A Plea)

by Dollars and Sense

Catchy tune from YouTube. Hat-tip to Bryan S.

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3/25/2009 09:41:00 AM 1 comments links to this post

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

 

Stiglitz On the Fiscal Crisis Of the State

by Dollars and Sense

From Common Dreams:

Fiscal Plan Fails both Markets and Taxpayers

by Joseph E. Stiglitz

Let's be clear: President Barack Obama inherited an economy in freefall and could not possibly have turned things around in the short time since his election. Unfortunately, what he is doing is not enough.

The real failings in the Obama recovery program lie not in the stimulus package -- though it is too heavily weighted toward tax cuts, and much of it merely offsets cutbacks by states -- but in its efforts to revive financial markets. America's failures provide important lessons to countries around the world that are or will be facing increasing problems with their banks:

* Delaying bank restructuring is costly, in terms of both the eventual bailout costs and the damage to the overall economy in the interim.
* Governments do not like to admit the full costs of the problem, so they give the banking system just enough to survive, but not enough to return it to health.

* Confidence is important, but it must rest on sound fundamentals. Policies must not be based on the fiction that good loans were made, and that the business acumen of financial-market leaders and regulators will be validated once confidence is restored.
* Bankers can be expected to act in their self-interest on the basis of incentives. Perverse incentives fueled excessive risk-taking, and banks that are near collapse but are too big to fail will engage in even more of it. Knowing that the government will pick up the pieces if necessary, they will postpone resolving mortgages and pay out billions in bonuses and dividends.
* Socializing losses while privatizing gains is more worrisome than the consequences of nationalizing banks. American taxpayers are getting an increasingly bad deal. In the first round of cash infusions, they got about 67 cents in assets for every dollar they gave (though the assets were almost surely overvalued, and quickly fell in value). But in the recent cash infusions, it is estimated that Americans are getting 25 cents, or less, for every dollar. Bad terms mean a large national debt in the future.
* Don't confuse saving bankers and shareholders with saving banks. America could have saved its banks, but let the shareholders go, for far less than it has spent.
* Trickle-down economics almost never works. Throwing money at the banks hasn't helped homeowners: foreclosures continue to increase. Letting AIG fail might have hurt some systemically important institutions, but dealing with that would have been better than to gamble upwards of $150 billion and hope that some of it might stick where it is important. One of the reasons we may be getting bad terms is that if we got fair value for our money, we would by now be the dominant shareholder in at least one of the major banks.
* Lack of transparency got America's financial system into this trouble. Lack of transparency will not get it out. The Obama administration is promising to pick up losses to persuade hedge funds and other private investors to buy out banks' bad assets. But this will not establish ''market prices,'' as the administration claims. Banks' losses have already occurred, and their gains must now come at taxpayers' expense. Bringing in hedge funds as third parties will simply increase the cost.
* Better to be forward looking than backward looking, focusing on reducing the risk of new loans and ensuring that funds create new lending capacity.

There is no "mystique" in finance: The era of believing that something can be created out of nothing should be over. Short-sighted responses by politicians -- who hope to get by with a deal that is small enough to please taxpayers and large enough to please the banks -- will merely prolong the problem.

An impasse is looming. More money will be needed, but Americans are in no mood to provide it -- certainly not on the terms that we have seen The well of money may be running dry, and so, too, may be America's legendary optimism and hope.

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3/24/2009 07:21:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

U.S. Seeks Expanded Power to Seize Firms

by Dollars and Sense

From the Washington Post. The plot thickens. Sure sounds to me like they're thinking Geithner's plan won't work and they'll have to nationalize after all. The "we've got to move quickly" line (2nd-to-last paragraph) is getting a little old.

U.S. Seeks Expanded Power to Seize Firms

Goal Is to Limit Risk to Broader Economy

By Binyamin Appelbaum and David Cho
Washington Post Staff Writers
Tuesday, March 24, 2009; A01

The Obama administration is considering asking Congress to give the Treasury secretary unprecedented powers to initiate the seizure of non-bank financial companies, such as large insurers, investment firms and hedge funds, whose collapse would damage the broader economy, according to an administration document.

The government at present has the authority to seize only banks.

Giving the Treasury secretary authority over a broader range of companies would mark a significant shift from the existing model of financial regulation, which relies on independent agencies that are shielded from the political process. The Treasury secretary, a member of the president's Cabinet, would exercise the new powers in consultation with the White House, the Federal Reserve and other regulators, according to the document.

The administration plans to send legislation to Capitol Hill this week. Sources cautioned that the details, including the Treasury's role, are still in flux.

Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner is set to argue for the new powers at a hearing today on Capitol Hill about the furor over bonuses paid to executives at American International Group, which the government has propped up with about $180 billion in federal aid. Administration officials have said that the proposed authority would have allowed them to seize AIG last fall and wind down its operations at less cost to taxpayers.

The administration's proposal contains two pieces. First, it would empower a government agency to take on the new role of systemic risk regulator with broad oversight of any and all financial firms whose failure could disrupt the broader economy. The Federal Reserve is widely considered to be the leading candidate for this assignment. But some critics warn that this could conflict with the Fed's other responsibilities, particularly its control over monetary policy.

The government also would assume the authority to seize such firms if they totter toward failure.

Besides seizing a company outright, the document states, the Treasury Secretary could use a range of tools to prevent its collapse, such as guaranteeing losses, buying assets or taking a partial ownership stake. Such authority also would allow the government to break contracts, such as the agreements to pay $165 million in bonuses to employees of AIG's most troubled unit.

The Treasury secretary could act only after consulting with the president and getting a recommendation from two-thirds of the Federal Reserve Board, according to the plan.

Geithner plans to lay out the administration's broader strategy for overhauling financial regulation at another hearing on Thursday.

The authority to seize non-bank financial firms has emerged as a priority for the administration after the failure of investment house Lehman Brothers, which was not a traditional bank, and the troubled rescue of AIG.

"We're very late in doing this, but we've got to move quickly to try and do this because, again, it's a necessary thing for any government to have a broader range of tools for dealing with these kinds of things, so you can protect the economy from the kind of risks posed by institutions that get to the point where they're systemic," Geithner said last night at a forum held by the Wall Street Journal.

The powers would parallel the government's existing authority over banks, which are exercised by banking regulatory agencies in conjunction with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Geithner has cited that structure as the model for the government's plans.

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3/24/2009 04:34:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

Down the dark path (Delasantellis on Geithner)

by Dollars and Sense

Hat-tip to Larry P. for this; he says "it's by far the best thing I've read on this travesty."

I am in absolutely no possession of any historical evidence that 16th-century English jailers employed modern stand-up comedians to bring a bit of levity to their inheritantly bleak workspaces, but what if they had? What if, as the clock ticked down in the Tower of London before the execution of Sir Thomas More ordered by King Henry VIII in July 1535, a comic, in the style of the late Rodney Dangerfield, was brought in to do stand-up?

"Hey, everybody looks great here. Anybody here Papists? Don't worry, your secret's safe with me—I haven't even paid the withholding tax on my foodtaster yet. I just flew in from the Isle of Man, and boy, are my arms tired—you know what I mean? Hey, prison guards! I never knew why they called you guys Beefeaters until I saw your wives outside the gates!"

Turning to the condemned man. "Hey, Tommy, I got good news for you. You're not going to be drawn and quartered tomorrow."

"Pray tell sir, do not jest!"

"I'm serious. Big H's gonna cut your head off instead!"

That's a little bit like the situation with the newly revealed, final US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner toxic asset recovery bank program. It may work. It may not. Whatever happens with its effectiveness, one thing is certain. US taxpayers are definitely going to be getting the chop, maybe you could even say they're getting it in the chops, as a result of its implementation and administration.

Read the rest of the article.

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3/24/2009 04:28:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

The Economics of War

by Dollars and Sense

We get deluged with press releases, most of which we ignore (since the senders usually assume that we are a mainstream business or personal finance magazine). Recently we received some press releases from the site Antiwar.com, which humbly describes itself as "the oldest and most important antiwar Website." (It turns out that there is also an Antiwar.org, but it redirects to Antiwar.com.) The press releases were about the 6th anniversary of the beginning of the Iraq War (March 19th). I thought about re-posting an op-ed by their executive director, Alexia Gilmore, in the San Jose Mercury News, but I thought it might be better to find out whether they had some economic analysis of the war that we could share with our blog readers. What their communications guy sent me was this article by a David R. Henderson of the Hoover Institution. The gist of the article is that what Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek showed about how command economies are doomed to failure can also be applied to centrally planned foreign policy; the article makes the analogy between "acentrally planning an economy and centrally deciding to intervene in another country's affairs."

Now, Antiwar.com makes a big deal about being a "big tent" organization; one press release says, "The site includes content from well-known authors around the world and across the political spectrum, from Daniel Ellsberg to Pat Buchanan," while Antiwar Radio features "interesting and noted guests such as Rep. Ron Paul, Noam Chomsky, and many more." And that's fine. I don't even mind reading about von Mises and Hayek on occasion. But the several articles by this Hoover Institution guy on Antiwar.com have impressive graphics granting him the title of "THE WARTIME ECONOMIST," and one gets the impression that he is almost the official economist of Antiwar.com. And there is not much sign of any left economic critiques of militarism on the site.

Anyhow, this inspired me to finally do what I've been intending to do for a while, which is to put together a special web page with the articles we've run in Dollars & Sense on war and militarism in recent years. I even made a nifty "guns and butter" graphic to go with it. We have a couple of new articles on militarism in the works—stay tuned.

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3/24/2009 02:08:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

The Wealth Gap Gets Wider

by Dollars and Sense

From Meizhu Lui, former executive director of United for a Fair Economy (our next-door neighbors and partners in various projects, including publishing The Wealth Inequality Reader), in Monday's Washington Post:
The chips are in.

Every three years, the Federal Reserve, in its Survey of Consumer Finances, takes a look at how U.S. households are doing and reports on our assets and liabilities. The euphoria of our gambling spree is over. In the harsh glare of morning, the hangover is tough. And the latest data are from 2007, so they don’t even capture the worst of the decline.

The net worth of the average American family is less than it was in 2001. We borrowed more for that trip to Vegas than we brought home. Everyone knows this now.

But here’s something being talked about much less: The gap between the wealth of white Americans and African Americans has grown. According to the Fed, for every dollar of wealth held by the typical white family, the African American family has only one dime. In 2004, it had 12 cents.

This is not just a gap. It’s a deepening canyon.

The overhyped political term “post-racial society” becomes patently absurd when looking at these economic numbers. ...
Read the rest here.

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3/24/2009 09:54:00 AM 1 comments links to this post

Monday, March 23, 2009

 

Market Up Krugman Down

by Dollars and Sense

The Dow Jones Industrials soared nearly 500 points today (about 6%) on news of the Geithner plan to buy up toxic bank assets. The stocks of troubled banks did particularly well, Citibank up 17%, Bank of America 18%, JPMorgan Chase up 18%, and Wells Fargo up 17%.

As usual, if Wall Street is happy about a bailout plan, taxpayers should be worried.

From Krugman:

Tim Geithner, the Treasury secretary, has persuaded President Obama to recycle Bush administration policy - specifically, the "cash for trash" plan proposed, then abandoned, six months ago by then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.

This is more than disappointing. In fact, it fills me with a sense of despair.

After all, we've just been through the firestorm over the A.I.G. bonuses, during which administration officials claimed that they knew nothing, couldn’t do anything, and anyway it was someone else's fault. Meanwhile, the administration has failed to quell the public's doubts about what banks are doing with taxpayer money.

And now Mr. Obama has apparently settled on a financial plan that, in essence, assumes that banks are fundamentally sound and that bankers know what they’re doing.


Read the rest of the column here.

In short, it won't work, it will enrich private investors at public expense, and it will close the door to other solutions that could work.

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3/23/2009 03:14:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

Foreign Firms Want Piece of Stimulus Pie

by Dollars and Sense

With Congress doling out $787 billion in stimulus money, foreign firms figure that no one will mind if they get some of it. And they'll probably only take 40% or so out of the country. All you need to win is a U.S. subsidiary, some well-placed lobbyists, and a dream.

From the Washington Post:

Spain's Prince Felipe and his wife, Princess Letizia, visited New York and Washington last week on an unusual mission for one of Europe's most glamorous celebrity couples: to drum up business for Spanish companies from the U.S. economic stimulus package.

"Only by working together with U.S. businesses and government, as well as coordinating our needs and priorities, can we get our countries, and world, back on track," Felipe said at a Manhattan business luncheon, which also featured former vice president Al Gore.

U.S. firms are not the only ones hoping to cash in on the $787 billion stimulus program. Foreign nations and companies are stepping up their lobbying efforts in Washington and in state capitals, hoping to gain vital business in hard times. Hundreds of foreign-owned companies, many of them with significant operations in the United States, are selling their expertise in clean energy, high-speed transit and other technologies that undergird key aspects of President Obama's stimulus efforts.
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Meanwhile, foreign companies, trade ministries and business groups are proceeding cautiously for fear of stoking nationalistic objections from U.S. lawmakers and their constituents. Lobbyists and consultants hired by the companies are warning them to proceed carefully and to emphasize that any contracts would lead to jobs in the United States rather than overseas.

...

But such firms are admittedly nervous about the idea of publicly angling for U.S. stimulus money, fearing the kind of political uproar that erupted in 2006 over plans by a United Arab Emirates-owned company to take over management of six U.S. seaports. In recent weeks, some lawmakers have objected to the revelation that billions of dollars in bailout money for American International Group ended up in the vaults of foreign-owned banks to which the company owed money.

...

If a foreign firm received a stimulus-related contract, most of the wages and product purchases would stay within the United States. But some portion, perhaps up to 40 percent, could leave the country, trade experts said.

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3/23/2009 01:34:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

US Still #1 In Military Spending

by Dollars and Sense




According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute as reported in the Economist, the U.S. spent more in 2007 on its military than the 14 largest countries combined. The U.S.'s $1.2 trillion in 2007 (hey, that could buy a bank bailout or two!) accounted for 45% of all global military spending. And this doesn't even account for the future expenses that will be incurred as a result of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

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3/23/2009 01:11:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

Sunday, March 22, 2009

 

Regulators Despair Of 'Ponzimonium'

by Dollars and Sense

Is it Ponzimonium or Ponzapalooza?

From Reuters:

Hundreds of people in the United States are under investigation for financial scams, many involving Ponzi schemes, a U.S. regulator said on Friday, calling the phenomenon "rampant Ponzimonium."

While none are as mammoth as disgraced financier Bernard Madoff's $65 billion fraud, multimillion-dollar "mini Madoffs" are proliferating from New York to Hawaii, the head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said.

So far this year, the agency has uncovered 19 Ponzi schemes, which depend on an influx of new capital instead of investment profits to pay existing investors.

That compares with just 13 for all of 2008.

"Because of the economy, people are seeking redemptions more than they ever have and that's making a lot of these scams go belly up," Bart Chilton, commissioner of the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission, said in a telephone interview.

In the last month alone, his agency has pursued investment fraud in Pennsylvania, New York, North Carolina, Iowa, Idaho, Texas and Hawaii.

Chilton called the problem "rampant Ponzimonium" and "Ponzipalooza" -- a play on the word "Lollapalooza," an American music festival featuring a long list of acts.

Many of the financial scams are small but grew fast to support lavish lifestyles, like the suspected $40 million, five-year Ponzi scheme that came to light last month when a North Carolina man, Bruce Kramer, committed suicide.

Claiming he was an expert mathematician, Kramer is accused of persuading 79 people to invest in what he said was a foreign currency trading operation, Barki LLC. He promised monthly returns of at least 3 percent to 4 percent, the CFTC said.

Instead, he funneled money into a Maserati sports car, a $1 million horse farm and artwork while holding "extravagant" parties, according to a CFTC complaint released on Wednesday.

As the economy soured, Kramer struggled to find new clients to keep the scheme going. In the days before his suicide, his investors demanded their money back and grew suspicious when they couldn't access their own funds, said Chilton.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission shares oversight of financial markets with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which also faces a swelling casebook of Ponzi schemes, including charges against Texas billionaire Allen Stanford, who is accused of bilking investors of $8.8 billion.

The SEC has taken emergency action in 24 cases this year "to halt ongoing fraud," said SEC spokesman John Heine.

The FBI is also ramping up probes of financial wrongdoing. The agency has 43 corporate fraud cases under way directly related to the financial crisis, FBI Deputy Director John Pistole told a Congressional panel on Friday.

The CFTC, which set up a task force last year to pursue foreign currency Ponzi schemes and fraud, discovered about $80 million invested in four Ponzi schemes this month. That followed 10 such schemes in February totaling about $1.46 billion, and about $450 million in such scams in January.


More here.

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3/22/2009 08:19:00 PM 1 comments links to this post

 

Obama Plans To Avoid Repeat of Crisis

by Dollars and Sense

From Bloomberg:

Obama to Outline Regulation Changes to Avoid Repeat of Crisis


By Hans Nichols

March 22 (Bloomberg) The Obama administration will this week outline regulatory changes aimed at avoiding a repeat of the financial crisis that's crippled the banking system and pushed the U.S. into the deepest recession since 1982.

The proposals will address the risks that remain in financial regulation, an administration official said, including the need for an agency to have the power to resolve a breakdown at a major financial institution. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke two weeks ago called for regulators to be given the authority to seize such firms, in the way the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. already has for deposit-taking institutions.

Officials favor giving the Fed greater responsibility for managing risk across the financial system as was proposed almost a year ago by former Treasury secretary Henry Paulson, support for which is waning in Congress. President Barack Obama may also subject executive pay to greater scrutiny, the New York Times reported. An administration official denied that curbing compensation will be a major focus of the regulatory plan.

"There’s still a need for a systemic-risk regulator," Representative Barney Frank, the Massachusetts Democrat who chairs the House Financial Services Committee, said on March 20. "The argument for the Fed alone has lost a lot of political support. I think that’s now got to be re-looked at."

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will testify before Frank's committee on March 26 as Obama prepares to travel to London for a summit of the Group of 20 industrial and developing nations.

G-20 Summit

Obama has said that the meeting must deal with how to prevent further crises like the current financial meltdown that began almost two years ago with the collapse of the market for subprime mortgages.

American banks have suffered more than $800 billion in writedowns and credit losses since then. The credit contraction that followed dragged first the U.S., and then Europe and Japan, into recession. A surge in unemployment and collapse in house prices has added to bad loans and further discouraged banks from lending.

The crisis also pushed the U.S. government into pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into financial institutions, including Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and American International Group Inc.

Like the White House, Congress is trying to overhaul U.S. financial regulations and agencies that lawmakers have faulted for lax oversight. Frank, who is playing a lead role in the redesign, has been pushing to expand the Fed's authority.

Read the rest of the article

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3/22/2009 12:02:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

Proposed Plan To Deal With Toxic Assets

by Dollars and Sense

From The Wall Street Journal:

MARCH 21, 2009

U.S. Sets Plan for Toxic Assets
Wall Street Journal
By DEBORAH SOLOMON

WASHINGTON -- The federal government will announce as soon as Monday a three-pronged plan to rid the financial system of toxic assets, betting that investors will be attracted to the combination of discount prices and government assistance.

But the framework, designed to expand existing programs and create new ones, relies heavily on participation from private-sector investors. They've been the target of a virulent anti-Wall Street backlash from Washington in the wake of the American International Group Inc. bonus furor. As a result, many investors have expressed concern about doing business with the government in this climate--potentially casting a cloud over the program's prospects.

The administration plans to contribute between $75 billion and $100 billion in new capital to the effort, although that amount could expand down the road.

The plan, which has been eagerly awaited by jittery investors, includes creating an entity, backed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., to purchase and hold loans. In addition, the Treasury Department intends to expand a Federal Reserve facility to include older, so-called "legacy" assets. Currently, the program, known as the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, or TALF, was set up to buy newly issued securities backing all manner of consumer and small-business loans. But some of the most toxic assets are securities created in 2005 and 2006, which the TALF will now be able to absorb.

Finally, the government is moving ahead with plans, sketched out by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner last month, to establish public-private investment funds to purchase mortgage-backed and other securities. These funds would be run by private investment managers but be financed with a combination of private money and capital from the government, which would share in any profit or loss.

All told, the three efforts are designed to unglue markets that have seized up as investors have stood on the sidelines. One big problem is that many of these assets no longer trade, which means it's very hard to put a price on them. Banks are unwilling to sell at too low a price, and investors are unwilling to take the risk.

Read the rest of the article

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3/22/2009 10:17:00 AM 0 comments links to this post

 

RBoS To Become UK's Enron?

by Dollars and Sense

From The Observer:


RBS faces probe over 'threats' to directors

Peer's criminal inquiry warning on bank

Toby Helm and Jamie Doward
The Observer, Sunday 22 March 2009


The scandal engulfing the Royal Bank of Scotland reaches new heights today with serious allegations from a senior Labour politician that at least three of its former non-executive directors may have been intimidated and threatened with the sack for asking searching questions about its financial affairs.

The Observer can reveal that a former government minister, Lord Foulkes of Cumnock, who has been extensively briefed by former bank insiders, has written to the Financial Services Authority, the City watchdog, asking it to pursue the claims which, if true, could trigger a criminal investigation.

The intervention by Foulkes, who is also a member of the Scottish parliament and sits on the Commons security and intelligence committee, comes amid fears that the bank will be exposed as the UK's equivalent of Enron--the US trader that collapsed amid systemic fraud.

Last night Foulkes said there was "widespread public anger among the public and Parliament that bankers in the midst of this financial crisis appear to be profiting and no action is being taken in relation to action which could constitute criminal offences".

In relation to claims of intimidation, Foulkes said: "If it were to transpire that executives were pressured in such a way, then that is a most serious matter indeed that needs urgent action."

Read the rest of the article

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3/22/2009 10:09:00 AM 0 comments links to this post

 

The People's Agenda (NYC event)

by Dollars and Sense

Linda Pinkow and I (Chris Sturr) have been out in Amherst, Mass. for the Forum on the Solidarity Economy, which has been great, and inspiring. It has been great to see lots of comrades and meet new ones. We will aim to blog about it more extensively early this week.

Below is an announcement for an event to be held next week. One or the other of the hosts of this event, Mimi Rosenberg and Ken Nash (hosts of Building Bridges on WBAI) will be part of the panel we have put together for this year's Left Forum, along with one or the other of the D&S co-editors (me or Amy Gluckman), Jerry Friedman (UMass-Amherst economist and D&S author, with whom we had a great chat over coffee yesterday), and Cecilia Rio, of Towson University and the Center for Popular Economics.

But here's that annoucement—looks like a great event:

WBAI Radio and the New York Society for Ethical Culture

present


The People’s Agenda:

Working For An Economy By The People, For The People!


Produced by WBAI’s Building Bridges: Your Community and Labor Report

Hosted by Mimi Rosenberg and Ken Nash

Wednesday, April 1, 2009, 7:00 – 9:30 PM (doors open at 6:30pm)

NY Society for Ethical Culture, 2 W. 64th St (at Central Park West)

An examination of the present crisis of capitalism and peoples’ demands that the road to economic recovery lies in directly increasing their living standard and abandoning trickle down economics. In the words of Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. who gave his life fighting for the rights of the Memphis sanitation workers and for a poor people’s movement for economic rights, "A true revolution of values will soon look uneasily on the glaring contrast of poverty and wealth…and say: 'This is not just.'"

The program (partial list):

. Ajamu Sankofa, Private Health Insurance Must Go Coalition

. Lillian Roberts, Ex. Dir. DC 37, American Federation of State County &

Municipal Employees (AFSCME)

. video message from U.S. Representative Dennis Kucinich

. Dean Baker, Co-Director, Center for Economic and Policy Research; author of Plunder and Blunder: The Rise and Fall of the Bubble Economy

. Stanley Aronowitz, Prof. of Sociology, & Urban Education, CUNY Graduate Center; author of Left Turn: Forging a New Political Future ; University Wide Officer, Professional Staff Congress, AFT

. Representatives of the April 3 and 4 marches on Wall Street Coalitions

. presenters from housing and community service coalitions



Suggested donation $10, (no one will be turned away)

To Benefit for WBAI and the NY Society for Ethical Culture

Further information: buildingbridgesradio--at--gmail.com

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3/22/2009 08:46:00 AM 0 comments links to this post

 

The Virtues of Public Anger, and Need for More

by Dollars and Sense


Great piece by Glenn Greenwald at Salon.com; hat-tip to Ben C. Ben wrote me: "This article is pretty damn good. I predict that your proposed new title for D&S, 'Jump You Fuckers,' will be conventional wisdom by Sept/Oct."

The virtues of public anger and the need for more

Glenn Greenwald | Salon | Saturday March 21, 2009 09:08 EDT

With lightning speed and lockstep unanimity, opinion-making elites jointly embraced and are now delivering the same message about the public rage triggered this week by the AIG bonus scandal:   This scandal is insignificant.  It's just a distraction.  And, most important of all, public anger is unhelpful and must be contained or, failing that, ignored.

This anti-anger consensus among our political elites is exactly wrong.  The public rage we're finally seeing is long, long overdue, and appears to be the only force with both the ability and will to impose meaningful checks on continued kleptocratic pillaging and deep-seated corruption in virtually every branch of our establishment institutions.  The worst possible thing that could happen now is for this collective rage to subside and for the public to return to its long-standing state of blissful ignorance over what the establishment is actually doing.

It makes perfect sense that those who are satisfied with the prevailing order -- because it rewards them in numerous ways -- are desperate to pacify public fury.  Thus we find unanimous decrees that public calm (i.e., quiet) be restored.  It's a universal dynamic that elites want to keep the masses in a state of silent, disengaged submission, all the better if the masses stay convinced that the elites have their best interests at heart and their welfare is therefore advanced by allowing elites -- the Experts -- to work in peace on our pressing problems, undisrupted and "undistracted" by the need to placate primitive public sentiments.

While that framework is arguably reasonable where the establishment class is competent, honest, and restrained, what we have had -- and have -- is exactly the opposite:  a political class and financial elite that is rotted to the core and running amok.  We've had far too little public rage given the magnitude of this rot, not an excess of rage.  What has been missing more than anything else is this:  fear on the part of the political and financial class of the public which they have been systematically defrauding and destroying.

* * * * *

These endless lectures from sober, rational pundits about the relative quantitative insignificance of the AIG bonuses are condescending straw men.  Nobody thinks that $165 million in bonuses for the people who destroyed AIG is what has caused the financial crisis.  Nobody thinks that recouping those bonuses or having prevented them in the first place would solve or even mitigate systemic collapse.  The amounts are miniscule in the context of the broader economic issues.  Everyone is aware of that; nobody needs to have that pointed out.  As Armando astutely observed, the attempt now to dismiss the anger over the AIG bonuses as the by-product of simple-minded ignorance and/or ideological rigidity (class warfare!  crass populism!) is quite similar to how anti-war arguments were stigmatized before the attack on Iraq :   ignore the screeching pacifists and let the sober Experts make the decisions, for they know best.

The AIG scandal is significant and has resonated so powerfully because it is a microscope that enables the public to see what and who has wreaked the destruction that threatens their security and future and, most important of all, to realize that these practices haven't ended and the perpetrators haven't been punished.  The opposite is true:  those who caused the crisis continue to exert control over what happens and continue to have huge amounts of public money transferred in order to enrich them.

Eliot Spitzer is absolutely right that, even at AIG, there are far larger scandals than the bonuses, such as the undiscounted compensation of AIG's counter-parties such as Goldman Sachs (and just by the way:  it is indescribably symbolic that Spitzer has been punished and disgraced for his acts of consensual adult sex while the targets of his prescient Wall St. investigations, who basically destroyed the world economy, remain protected and empowered). But the bonus scandal is illustrative of why the crisis happened, who caused it to happen, and the ongoing political dominance of the perpetrators.  It is, as Robert Reich put it, "a nightmarish metaphor for the Obama Administration's problems administering the bailout of Wall Street."

The financial crisis has merely unmasked the corruption and rot in our establishment institutions that are staggering in magnitude and reach.  Just as the Iraq War was not the by-product of wrongdoing by a few stray bad political and media actors but instead was reflective of our broken institutions generally, the financial crisis is a fundamental indictment on the way the country functions and of its ruling class.  What would be unhealthy is if there weren't substantial amounts of public rage in the face of these revelations. 


Read the rest of the article.

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3/22/2009 08:27:00 AM 0 comments links to this post

Saturday, March 21, 2009

 

Krugman: The Zombies Have Won

by Dollars and Sense

Geithner's plan has been announced. Late on a Friday when nobody will notice, right? Never a good sign.

Basically, it's heads the banks win, tails we lose. Actually, heads we lose too.

From Paul Krugman's blog:

The Geithner plan has now been leaked in detail. It’s exactly the plan that was widely analyzed — and found wanting - a couple of weeks ago. The zombie ideas have won.

The Obama administration is now completely wedded to the idea that there’s nothing fundamentally wrong with the financial system — that what we’re facing is the equivalent of a run on an essentially sound bank. As Tim Duy put it, there are no bad assets, only misunderstood assets. And if we get investors to understand that toxic waste is really, truly worth much more than anyone is willing to pay for it, all our problems will be solved.

To this end the plan proposes to create funds in which private investors put in a small amount of their own money, and in return get large, non-recourse loans from the taxpayer, with which to buy bad - I mean misunderstood - assets. This is supposed to lead to fair prices because the funds will engage in competitive bidding.

But it's immediately obvious, if you think about it, that these funds will have skewed incentives. In effect, Treasury will be creating - deliberately! - the functional equivalent of Texas S&Ls in the 1980s: financial operations with very little capital but lots of government-guaranteed liabilities. For the private investors, this is an open invitation to play heads I win, tails the taxpayers lose. So sure, these investors will be ready to pay high prices for toxic waste. After all, the stuff might be worth something; and if it isn’t, that’s someone else's problem.

Or to put it another way, Treasury has decided that what we have is nothing but a confidence problem, which it proposes to cure by creating massive moral hazard.

This plan will produce big gains for banks that didn't actually need any help; it will, however, do little to reassure the public about banks that are seriously undercapitalized. And I fear that when the plan fails, as it almost surely will, the administration will have shot its bolt: it won’t be able to come back to Congress for a plan that might actually work.

What an awful mess.


And from Yves Smith:

If the money committed to this program is less than the book value of the assets the banks want to unload (or the banks are worried about that possibility), the banks have an incentive to try to ditch their worst dreck first.

In addition, it has been said in comments more than once that the banks own some paper that is truly worthless. This program won't solve that problem.


Rest of Smith's analysis here.

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3/21/2009 05:45:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

Friday, March 20, 2009

 

AIG Sues To Get $306 Million In Taxes BACK!

by Dollars and Sense

AIG gets $170 billion from taxpayers. Taxpayers now own 80% of the company. Company hands out hundreds of millions in bonuses. Congress and Treasury claim they had no idea and can't stop the payments. Congress announces new taxes to recover most egregious bonuses (e.g. million dollar "retention" payouts to people that have left). And now this. The company is suing the federal government to get $306 million it paid after being busted for illegal use of offshore tax shenanigans. A government-owned company is suing the government to get back tax money it paid for not paying its taxes, and is using taxpayer money to pay the lawyers.

My head hurts.

From the NYT:

While the American International Group comes under fire from Congress over executive bonuses, it is quietly fighting the federal government for the return of $306 million in tax payments, some related to deals that were conducted through offshore tax havens.

A.I.G. sued the government last month in a bid to force it to return the payments, which stemmed in large part from its use of aggressive tax deals, some involving entities controlled by the company's financial products unit in the Cayman Islands, Ireland, the Dutch Antilles and other offshore havens.

A.I.G. is effectively suing its majority owner, the government, which has an 80 percent stake and has poured nearly $200 billion into the insurer in a bid to avert its collapse and avoid troubling the global financial markets. The company is in effect asking for even more money, in the form of tax refunds. The suit also suggests that A.I.G. is spending taxpayer money to pursue its case, something it is legally entitled to do. Its initial claim was denied by the Internal Revenue Service last year.

The lawsuit, filed on Feb. 27 in Federal District Court in Manhattan, details, among other things, certain tax-related dealings of the financial products unit, the once high-flying division that has been singled out for its role in A.I.G.'s financial crisis last fall. Other deals involved A.I.G. offshore entities whose function centers on executive compensation and include C. V. Starr & Company, a closely held concern controlled by Maurice R. Greenberg, A.I.G.'s former chairman, and the Starr International Company, a privately held enterprise incorporated in Panama, and commonly known as SICO.

The lawsuit contends in part that the federal government owes A.I.G. nearly $62 million in foreign tax credits related to eight foreign entities, with names like Lumagrove, Laperouse and Foppingadreef, that were set up or controlled by financial products, often through a unit known as Pinestead Holdings.

United States tax law allows American companies to claim a credit for any taxes paid to a foreign government. But the I.R.S. denied A.I.G.'s refund claims in 2008, saying that it had improperly calculated the credits. The I.R.S. has identified so-called foreign tax-credit generators as an area of abuse that it is increasingly monitoring.

The remainder of A.I.G.'s claim, for $244 million, concerns net operating loss carry-backs, capital loss carry-backs, a general refund claim and claims for refunds of other tax-related payments that A.I.G. says it made to the I.R.S. but are now owed back. The claim also covers $119 million in penalties and interest that A.I.G. says it is due back from the government.

In part, A.I.G. says it overpaid its federal income taxes after a 2004 accounting scandal that caused it to restate its financial records. A.I.G. says in part that it is entitled to a refund of $33 million that SICO paid in 1997 as compensation to employees, which it now says should be characterized as a deductible expense.

A.I.G.'s lawyers in the case, at Sutherland Asbill & Brennan, referred calls to the company. Asked about the lawsuit, Mark Herr, an A.I.G. spokesman, said Thursday that "A.I.G. is taking this action to ensure that it is not required to pay more than its fair share of taxes."


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3/20/2009 01:10:00 PM 1 comments links to this post

Thursday, March 19, 2009

 

Jamie Galbraith: No Return to Normal

by Dollars and Sense

Excellent insight from James K. Galbraith in The Washington Monthly:

Barack Obama's presidency began in hope and goodwill, but its test will be its success or failure on the economics. Did the president and his team correctly diagnose the problem? Did they act with sufficient imagination and force? And did they prevail against the political obstacles—and not only that, but also against the procedures and the habits of thought to which official Washington is addicted?

The president has an economic program. But there is, so far, no clear statement of the thinking behind that program, and there may not be one, until the first report of the new Council of Economic Advisers appears next year. We therefore resort to what we know about the economists: the chair of the National Economic Council, Lawrence Summers; the CEA chair, Christina Romer; the budget director, Peter Orszag; and their titular head, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner. This is plainly a capable, close-knit group, acting with energy and commitment. Deficiencies of their program cannot, therefore, be blamed on incompetence. Rather, if deficiencies exist, they probably result from their shared background and creed-in short, from the limitations of their ideas.

The deepest belief of the modern economist is that the economy is a self-stabilizing system. This means that, even if nothing is done, normal rates of employment and production will someday return. Practically all modern economists believe this, often without thinking much about it. (Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said it reflexively in a major speech in London in January: "The global economy will recover." He did not say how he knew.) The difference between conservatives and liberals is over whether policy can usefully speed things up. Conservatives say no, liberals say yes, and on this point Obama's economists lean left. Hence the priority they gave, in their first days, to the stimulus package.

But did they get the scale right? Was the plan big enough? Policies are based on models; in a slump, plans for spending depend on a forecast of how deep and long the slump would otherwise be. The program will only be correctly sized if the forecast is accurate. And the forecast depends on the underlying belief. If recovery is not built into the genes of the system, then the forecast will be too optimistic, and the stimulus based on it will be too small.



Full article here.


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3/19/2009 01:42:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

Auto Parts Suppliers Get $5 Billion Loan

by Dollars and Sense

Beleaguered auto parts suppliers will receive up to $5 in loan government loan guarantees. Parts suppliers usually get paid by car manufacturers 45 days after delivery. The program will guarantee those payments.

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3/19/2009 01:12:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

Time For A 'Managed Bankruptcy' For Banks

by Dollars and Sense

From CEPR:

Getting Lehman Wrong a Second Time
By Dean Baker

There are few economists who would defend the decision to allow Lehman Brothers to go bankrupt last September. Its collapse induced a worldwide panic that sent stock markets plummeting and caused credit to freeze-up. In the subsequent months, the downturn went into over-drive, with the United States losing almost 3 million jobs from October through February.

This set of events has led almost everyone to conclude that the trio who let Lehman go under, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Federal Reserve Board Chairmen Ben Bernanke, and then head of the New York Fed, Timothy Geithner, erred badly in this decision. That seems a reasonable judgment.

However, the conventional wisdom includes a corollary that is much less obvious: because the Lehman bankruptcy was a disaster, U.S. taxpayers must honor in full all the debts of all the banks. This corollary could put U.S. taxpayers on the line for trillions of dollars in commitments that the Wall Street boys apparently made on our behalf. Before we cough up the dough, we might want to consider whether Paulson, Bernanke, and Geithner were not quite as stupid as the current conventional wisdom would imply.

The problems that followed from Lehman did not just stem from the fact the government was not honoring Lehman's debts. This was an uncontrolled bankruptcy of a huge investment bank in a world where the official line was still that everything was under control. The Washington Post had even run a column the day before Lehman's collapse ridiculing those who were making negative comments about the state of the economy.

In this context, an uncontrolled bankruptcy of a major investment bank was sort of like a sledge hammer in the face: a rather rude and unexpected blow. The most immediate consequence was that Reserve Primary, one of the largest money market mutual funds in the world, suddenly could not pay its shareholders in full, because it had tens of billions invested in Lehman. In the wake of Lehman's bankruptcy, Reserve Primary did not know how much, if any, of this investment it could recover. In the post-Lehman world, banks could suddenly no longer trust each other, and the interbank lending rate went through the roof.

But we now have had six months to adjust. The Fed and Treasury are now guaranteeing deposits in money market mutual funds. The FDIC doubled the size of the bank accounts it guarantees and non-interest bearing accounts of any size are guaranteed. In addition, the Fed is now lending hundreds of billions of dollars directly to non-financial corporations, establishing a channel of funding that goes outside the banking system.

These and other measures have restored some measure of stability to the financial system. Now that we have these measures in place, is it still true that we can't subject Citigroup, Bank of America, or Goldman Sachs to a managed bankruptcy (a.k.a. "nationalization") without the world coming to an end?

With a managed bankruptcy, all the insured deposits would be fully covered. However, the government would only repay bondholders a portion of their investment, depending on how severe the banks' losses are. By not compensating bondholders in full for their losses, the government could save taxpayers hundreds of billions, perhaps even trillions, of dollars.

In addition, a managed bankruptcy would also help to address the problem of moral hazard created by the bailouts thus far. Investors did not pay adequate attention to the health of banks and other large financial institutions like AIG because they assumed that the government would bail them out if things went badly. If the government makes these investors eat some of their losses, maybe they will put more thought into their investment strategies in the future. This could also let some big investors make some of the "sacrifices" for which fiscal conservatives, which include some big investors, are so eager.

The silence of the fiscal conservatives on the vast sums going to the banks is hard to understand. After all, how can someone get so upset about the prospect of $200 million being spent re-sodding the mall, but be unconcerned when $160 billion, almost 1000 times as much money, goes out the door to AIG?

The sums of money going to bail out the financial industry dwarfs the waste and pork that get John McCain and other budget hawks excited, yet they are strangely calm about the bailout money. In fact, the amount we spent patching the financial system could well be large enough to make the Social Security system fully solvent over its 75-year planning horizon, yet we barely hear a peep from the Peter G. Peterson Foundation and its merry band of anti-Social Security crusaders.

The only answer we ever get in response is that we have no choice. But just six months ago, Henry Paulson, Ben Bernanke, and Timothy Geithner thought we could make a much more extreme choice. They were wrong then, but they are not stupid. We should go back to the bankrupt Lehmans and see if we can do it right this time.

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3/19/2009 01:01:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

Bailout Firms Owe $220 Million In Unpaid Taxes

by Dollars and Sense

From the Washington Post:

A House panel looking into a federal bailout program has found that 13 recipients of government funds owe more than $220 million in unpaid federal taxes, a lawmaker said today.

Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.), chairman of the oversight subcommittee of the House Ways and Means Committee, told a hearing on the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) that the panel looked at the top 23 private recipients of taxpayer-funded bailouts under the $700 billion program enacted last year.

"We found that 13 of them owed more than $220 million in unpaid federal taxes," Lewis said in an opening statement. "Two companies owe over $100 million each. How can this be? If we looked at all 470 recipients, how much would they owe?"

Under the program, which was signed into law by President George W. Bush in October 2008, the U.S. Treasury has doled out more than $300 billion to banks and private companies so far. Shortly after enactment, Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. revised the program, which was originally intended to allow the government to buy up toxic assets from insolvent banks and auction the assets off to investors. Instead, Paulson and the Bush administration opted to pour capital into the banks and companies in hopes of cleaning up their balance sheets, thawing frozen credit markets and spurring renewed lending.
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To get the money, the recipients were required to sign contracts stating that they had no material unpaid federal taxes, Lewis said. But he said Treasury did not ask the banks and companies to turn over their tax records, relying instead on their signed statements.

"Are they signing contracts knowing that they owe taxes but thinking they will not get caught?" Lewis demanded at the hearing. "Did then-secretary Paulson turn a blind eye? Either way, this is shameful. It is a disgrace."

Lewis declared, "The American people are fed up, they are fired up, and they're not going to take it anymore. As members of Congress, we shouldn't take it anymore either."


Full article here.

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3/19/2009 12:54:00 PM 1 comments links to this post

 

Why Are AIG INVESTORS Getting Billions?

by Dollars and Sense

Before he went down for, ahem, going down, Eliot Spitzer was the guy Wall Street feared most. He's worth listening to.

From Salon.com

The Real AIG Scandal
It's not the bonuses. It's that AIG's counterparties are getting paid back in full.
By Eliot Spitzer

Everybody is rushing to condemn AIG's bonuses, but this simple scandal is obscuring the real disgrace at the insurance giant: Why are AIG's counterparties getting paid back in full, to the tune of tens of billions of taxpayer dollars?

For the answer to this question, we need to go back to the very first decision to bail out AIG, made, we are told, by then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, then-New York Fed official Timothy Geithner, Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein, and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke last fall. Post-Lehman's collapse, they feared a systemic failure could be triggered by AIG's inability to pay the counterparties to all the sophisticated instruments AIG had sold. And who were AIG's trading partners? No shock here: Goldman, Bank of America, Merrill Lynch, UBS, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, Barclays, and on it goes. So now we know for sure what we already surmised: The AIG bailout has been a way to hide an enormous second round of cash to the same group that had received TARP money already.

It all appears, once again, to be the same insiders protecting themselves against sharing the pain and risk of their own bad adventure. The payments to AIG's counterparties are justified with an appeal to the sanctity of contract. If AIG's contracts turned out to be shaky, the theory goes, then the whole edifice of the financial system would collapse.

But wait a moment, aren't we in the midst of reopening contracts all over the place to share the burden of this crisis? From raising taxes—income taxes to sales taxes—to properly reopening labor contracts, we are all being asked to pitch in and carry our share of the burden. Workers around the country are being asked to take pay cuts and accept shorter work weeks so that colleagues won't be laid off. Why can't Wall Street royalty shoulder some of the burden? Why did Goldman have to get back 100 cents on the dollar? Didn't we already give Goldman a $25 billion capital infusion, and aren't they sitting on more than $100 billion in cash? Haven't we been told recently that they are beginning to come back to fiscal stability? If that is so, couldn't they have accepted a discount, and couldn't they have agreed to certain conditions before the AIG dollars—that is, our dollars—flowed?

The appearance that this was all an inside job is overwhelming. AIG was nothing more than a conduit for huge capital flows to the same old suspects, with no reason or explanation.

Rest of article here.

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3/19/2009 12:36:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

Unemployment Rate On Par With 1982 Recession

by Dollars and Sense

A new report from CEPR. Download the pdf of the full report here.


WASHINGTON D.C.- As the nation struggles to get a sense of the depth of the current recession, a new report from the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) demonstrates that the current unemployment rate is higher than conventionally measured and is already at roughly the same level as the high reached in 1982, the year with the highest unemployment rate since World War II.

"February's unemployment rate of 8.1 percent is bad news, but the unemployment picture is even worse than it looks," said report author and CEPR Senior Economist, John Schmitt.

The report, "Is the U.S. Unemployment Rate Today Already as High as It was in 1982?," adjusts the current unemployment rate to account for demographic and statistical differences that lower the unemployment rate today by 1.4 percentage points, relative to the official unemployment rate in 1982. After these adjustments, the current unemployment level rises to 9.5 percent, a level that is close to the 1982 average of 9.7 percent.

"After accounting for these demographic and statistical differences, today's unemployment rate rises to 9.5 percent, already on a par with the worst recession since the Great Depression," said Schmitt.

The report notes that the population today is substantially older than it was in the early 1980s, which has the effect of lowering the unemployment rate today relative to the past. Young people have a higher unemployment rate than older workers because the young change jobs more frequently and are more likely to move in and out of the labor force. In 1982, about 22 percent of the labor force was between the age of 16 and 24- in 2008, 16-to-24 year olds were only about 14 percent of the labor force. As a result, the age of the typical US worker has risen from 35 in 1982 to about 42 today. Adjusting for this aging of the population raises the unemployment rate in 2009 by 1.2 percentage points.

The report also analyzes the effects of the falling coverage rate in the Current Population Survey (CPS), the monthly survey that the government uses to measure the national unemployment rate. Due to a decline in cooperation with both public and private surveys, the CPS today misses a larger share of the population today than it did in the early 1980s. The CPS has techniques that correct for the impact of this decline in coverage for most purposes, but the current correction procedures do not work well for employment-related measures such as the unemployment rate. Adjusting for the rise in coverage since 1982 would add at least an additional 0.2 percentage points to the 2009 unemployment rate.

The full analysis of the impact of these effects on the current unemployment rate can be found here.

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3/19/2009 12:25:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

 

Fed Spends Another $1.2 Trillion On Bailout

by Dollars and Sense

Another trillion plus to lower mortgage rates? Is this really supposed to help anything?

From the Washington Post:

The Federal Reserve said today that it will deploy an additional $1.2 trillion to try to lower interest rates and stimulate the economy, an aggressive move aimed at containing the recession.

The central bank will increase its purchases of mortgage-backed securities by $750 billion, on top of a previously announced $500 billion. It also will double its purchases of debt in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to $200 billion. Those steps are intended to lower mortgage rates. The announcement of the previous purchases pushed mortgage rates down a full percentage point.

The Fed also said it will buy $300 billion in long-term Treasury bonds, a step it had previously considered but had been reluctant to act on. That move will lower long-term interest rates for the U.S. government directly and, Fed officials hope, will indirectly lower borrowing costs for businesses and individuals.


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3/18/2009 02:51:00 PM 2 comments links to this post

 

Europe Defended Against Krugman

by Dollars and Sense

In a New York Times op-ed Monday, Paul Krugman criticized European governments for under-reacting to the financial crisis:
The clear and present danger to Europe right now comes from a different direction—the continent’s failure to respond effectively to the financial crisis.

Europe has fallen short in terms of both fiscal and monetary policy: it’s facing at least as severe a slump as the United States, yet it’s doing far less to combat the downturn.

On the fiscal side, the comparison with the United States is striking. Many economists, myself included, have argued that the Obama administration’s stimulus plan is too small, given the depth of the crisis. But America’s actions dwarf anything the Europeans are doing.

The difference in monetary policy is equally striking. The European Central Bank has been far less proactive than the Federal Reserve; it has been slow to cut interest rates (it actually raised rates last July), and it has shied away from any strong measures to unfreeze credit markets.
A strong rebuttal appears on the Models & Agents blog (also posted on RGE Monitor). Here's an excerpt:
Krugman’s latest “prey” are European policymakers, in an op-ed piece that is so shallow and uncorroborated in its assertions, and so one-size-fits-all in its prescriptions, that it might have well been written by an American freshman student of European studies in a rush to finish his midterm exam.

Complacent? The ECB was the first to act back in August 2007 upon the first signs of funding pressures and liquidity hoarding by banks. It did so by providing banks with ample amounts of liquidity at longer maturities. A year later, when the (real) fireworks began, the ECB expanded its support measures by providing unlimited liquidity with maturities of up to six months, and by expanding considerably the list of eligible assets that banks could pledge as collateral.

As a result of these measures, the ECB’s balance sheet increased by 600 billion euros compared to its pre-crisis level. This is about 6% of eurozone GDP, which, actually, is almost the same as the Fed’s own balance-sheet expansion in GDP terms! Critically, Trichet has by no means signaled the end here. Au contraire!

“Shied away from any strong measures to unfreeze credit markets”? Given the above, I take it that by “strong measures” Krugman refers to the likes of the TALF or the MBS purchase program—i.e. measures taken by the Fed to bypass the banking system and support targeted dysfunctional credit markets directly (e.g. housing or credit card loans, auto loans, etc).

The ECB has yet to go that far and for a good reason. Bank-based lending is far more predominant in Europe than in the US, where capital markets play a substantial role in allocating credit. Addressing any dysfunctions in the banking sector in order to jumpstart bank lending is therefore of utmost importance in Europe, with TALF-like measures only secondary.

In fact, I would go as far as to suggest that restoring bank health is as important in the US (see here why) and any thought that the TALF could help revive credit by bypassing the US banking system is wishful thinking.
Read the whole piece here.

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3/18/2009 11:13:00 AM 0 comments links to this post

 

Amazon Kindle Equals the Death of Personhood, Ownership, and Free Speech?

by Dollars and Sense

An interesting if broad-brush attack on e-book readers in today’s Christian Science Monitor:

All you really need to know about the dangers of digital commodification you learned in kindergarten.

Think back. Remember swapping your baloney sandwich for Jell-o pudding? Now, imagine handing over your sandwich and getting just a spoon.

That’s one trade you'd never make again.

Yet that’s just what millions of Americans are doing every day when they read “books” on Kindle, Amazon’s e-reading device. In our rush to adopt new technologies, we have too readily surrendered ownership in favor of its twisted sister, access.

Web 2.0 and its culture of collaboration supposedly unleashed a sharing society. But we can share only what we own. And as more and more content gets digitized, commercialized, and monopolized, our cultural integrity is threatened. The free and balanced flow of information that gives shape to democratic society is jeopardized.
...
But it comes with restrictions: You can’t resell or share your books—because you don’t own them. You can download only from Amazon’s store, making it difficult to read anything that is not routed through Amazon first. You’re not buying a book; you’re buying access to a book. No, it’s not like borrowing a book from a library, because there is no public investment. It’s like taking an interest-only mortgage out on intellectual property.

Read it here.

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3/18/2009 10:24:00 AM 0 comments links to this post

 

Capital Flowing Out of Developing Countries

by Dollars and Sense

From Nouriel Roubini’s RGE Monitor:

The reversal of capital inflows due to deleveraging or losses in financial markets has been one of the most significant effects of the financial crisis on emerging and frontier economies. After a period in 2007 and 2008 when many emerging markets faced the problem of dealing with extensive capital inflows, now capital flows have reversed. Private capital flows in 2009 are expected to be less than half of their 2007 levels, posing pressure on emerging market currencies, asset markets and economies. Countries that relied on readily available capital to finance their current account deficits are particularly vulnerable. Furthermore, capital outflows pose the risk that governments may react with some type of capital controls or barriers to the exit of foreign investments.
Note that the piece later adopts a different tone on capital controls, accepting their use on a temporary basis and noting that Iceland, Ukraine, Argentina, Indonesia and Russia, among others, have already adopted them.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) is considered by many to be a major and more stable source of financing for many developing countries. FDIs slowed down sharply in recent quarters ...

The outlook for the flow of portfolio investments is even less encouraging. ... About half of the EM [emerging market] fund purchases that have occurred since 2003 have now been withdrawn. According to the Institute for International Finance (IIF), net private capital flows to emerging markets are estimated to have declined to US$467 billion in 2008, half of their 2007 level. A further sharp decline to US$165 billion is forecast for 2009 ...

The World Bank estimates that in 2009, 104 of 129 developing countries will have current account surpluses inadequate to cover private debt coming due. ...

With rising unemployment and falling real wages, remittances will also subside with pressure on the standard of living, growth and external balances of labor-sending countries. In addition to these private capital flows the reduction of official flows, including development assistance is also set to slow as donors scale back their funding in the face of greater domestic needs. However funds available from multilateral institutions like the IMF and regional development banks may partly offset the decline in other funds and withdrawal of private capital. The G20 seems to have neared an agreement on doubling or tripling the IMF’s lending capacity and regional development banks like the EBRD, ADB and others are boosting their capital base and scaling up their lending to support regional banks. ...
Read the whole analysis here.

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3/18/2009 09:57:00 AM 0 comments links to this post

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

 

A Bit More on Madoff and Wiesel

by Dollars and Sense

In my earlier post expanding on Joe Nocera's column on Madoff's victims, I'd meant to include an excerpt from this article from a while back in the New Yorker. The article was compelling for going at least some of the way toward answering a question that many of us have asked ourselves, but maybe never expected to get an answer: Who falls for those Nigerian scam emails? I mean, if they keep sending them, the scammers must be finding victims. But who? The article profiles an ordained minister and Christian psychotherapist from the suburbs of Boston who got drawn in, and was victimized, by some Nigerian email scammers in a check fraud scheme—and was prosecuted for his role in the scheme. Part of the burden of the article—besides answering that question we thought no one ever would—is to assess the victim's culpability. He was victimized, but he did also participate in fraud. There's a paragraph early in the article that struck me, and that I've been thinking about in recent weeks as the Madoff victims have their say (including especially Elie Wiesel's public expressions of scorn and retributive sentiment for Madoff):
Robert B. Reich, the former Labor Secretary, who has studied the psychology of market behavior, says, "American culture is uniquely prone to the 'too good to miss' fallacy. 'Opportunity' is our favorite word. What may seem reckless and feckless and hapless to people in many parts of the world seems a justifiable risk to Americans." But appetite for risk is only part of it. A mark must be willing to pursue a fortune of questionable origin. The mind-set was best explained by the linguist David W. Maurer in his classic 1940 book, "The Big Con": "As the lust for large and easy profits is fanned into a hot flame, the mark puts all his scruples behind him. He closes out his bank account, liquidates his property, borrows from his friends, embezzles from his employer or his clients. In the mad frenzy of cheating someone else, he is unaware of the fact that he is the real victim, carefully selected and fatted for the kill. Thus arises the trite but none the less sage maxim: 'You can't cheat an honest man.'"

The whole article is definitely worth a read.

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3/17/2009 04:07:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

D&S in Polish

by Dollars and Sense

We just received a pdf copy of the March issue of the Polish edition of Le Monde diplomatique, which includes our May/June 2008 cover story, Ryan Dodd's article on WPA-style Employer of Last Resort programs. The article is still timely. There is a lengthy sidebar by our Polish contact at Le Diplo, Grzegorz Konat. I will have to get him to send an English translation of his sidebar.

I couldn't even begin to figure out how to code all the Polish diacritical marks in xhtml, so I've posted a pdf of the article here. If your Polish is as rusty as mine, you can find the original English version here. (The last time I tried to say anything in Polish was when, at age eight or so, I called my grandmother "babka" (coffee cake) instead of "babcha" (grandma), to the amusement of my extended family in Utica, NY.)

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3/17/2009 01:29:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

Madoff's Accomplices: His Victims (Nocera)

by Dollars and Sense

Finally, somebody in a mainstream publication says something close to what I have been thinking about the Madoff victims. In a column last Friday entitled Madoff Had Accomplices: His Victims, Joe Nocera argues that the investors whom Madoff cheated were irresponsible. As I will argue below, I think they were showed not just personal irresponsibility, but possibly also ethical and political irresponsibility. But here's Nocera:
[J]ust about anybody who actually took the time to kick the tires of Mr. Madoff's operation tended to run in the other direction. James R. Hedges IV, who runs an advisory firm called LJH Global Investments, says that in 1997 he spent two hours asking Mr. Madoff basic questions about his operation. "The explanation of his strategy, the consistency of his returns, the way he withheld information—it was a very clear set of warning signs," said Mr. Hedges. When you look at the list of Madoff victims, it contains a lot of high-profile names—but almost no serious institutional investors or endowments. They insist on knowing the kind of information Mr. Madoff refused to supply.

I suppose you could argue that most of Mr. Madoff's direct investors lacked the ability or the financial sophistication of someone like Mr. Hedges. But it shouldn't have mattered. Isn't the first lesson of personal finance that you should never put all your money with one person or one fund? Even if you think your money manager is "God"? Diversification has many virtues; one of them is that you won't lose everything if one of your money managers turns out to be a crook.

"These were people with a fair amount of money, and most of them sought no professional advice," said Bruce C. Greenwald, who teaches value investing at the Graduate School of Business at Columbia University. "It's like trying to do your own dentistry." Mr. Hedges said, "It is a real lesson that people cannot abdicate personal responsibility when it comes to their personal finances."

And that's the point. People did abdicate responsibility—and now, rather than face that fact, many of them are blaming the government for not, in effect, saving them from themselves. Indeed, what you discover when you talk to victims is that they harbor an anger toward the S.E.C. that is as deep or deeper than the anger they feel toward Mr. Madoff. There is a powerful sense that because the agency was asleep at the switch, they have been doubly victimized. And they want the government to do something about it.

I spoke, for instance, to Phyllis Molchatsky, who lost $1.7 million with Mr. Madoff—and is now suing the S.E.C. to recoup her losses, on the grounds the agency was so negligent it should be forced to pony up. Her story is sure to rouse sympathy—Mr. Madoff was recommended to her by her broker as a safe place to put her money, and she felt virtuous making 9 or 10 percent a year when others were reaching for the stars. The failure of the S.E.C., she told me, "is a double slap in the face." And she felt the government owed her. Her lawyer, who represents several dozen Madoff victims, told me he "wouldn't be averse" to a victims' fund.

Even Mr. Wiesel thought the government should help the victims—or at least the charitable institutions among them. "The government should come and say, ‘We bailed out so many others, we can bail you out, and when you will do better, you can give us back the money,' " he said at the Portfolio event.

But why? What happened to the victims of Bernard Madoff is terrible. But every day in this country, people lose money due to financial fraud or negligence. Innocent investors who bought stock in Enron lost millions when that company turned out to be a fraud; nobody made them whole. Half a dozen Ponzi schemes have been discovered since Mr. Madoff was arrested in December. People lose it all because they start a company that turns out to be misguided, or because they do something that is risky, hoping to hit the jackpot. Taxpayers don't bail them out, and they shouldn't start now. Did the S.E.C. foul up? You bet. But that doesn't mean the investors themselves are off the hook. Investors blaming the S.E.C. for their decision to give every last penny to Bernie Madoff is like a child blaming his mother for letting him start a fight while she wasn't looking.

I like Nocero's line of thinking, but I wish he'd gone beyond personal investment advice. There is an argument to be made that Madoff's victims—or some of them, at least—and (it should be added) plenty of other big-money investors, are guilty not only of failing in their duties to themselves to invest their money wisely, but also failing ethically to invest their money in ways that don't harm other people. And if this is true of the Madoff investors, then it's true of a lot of other investors in Wall Street's latest high-flying phase.

Take Elie Wiesel, for example. Here are some excerpts from the NY Times article about Wiesel's comments at the Portfolio forum Nocera mentions:
Elie Wiesel Levels Scorn at Madoff

By STEPHANIE STROM
Published: February 26, 2009

What does Elie Wiesel, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate and Holocaust survivor who has dedicated his life to fighting hatred and intolerance, think about Bernard L. Madoff?

"'Psychopath'—it's too nice a word for him," Mr. Wiesel said in his first public comments on Mr. Madoff and the Ponzi scheme he is accused of perpetrating on thousands of individuals and charities, including the Elie Wiesel Foundation for Humanity.

"'Sociopath,' 'psychopath,' it means there is a sickness, a pathology. This man knew what he was doing. I would simply call him thief, scoundrel, criminal."

And this:

Asked what punishment he would like to see for Mr. Madoff, Mr. Wiesel said: "I would like him to be in a solitary cell with only a screen, and on that screen for at least five years of his life, every day and every night, there should be pictures of his victims, one after the other after the other, all the time a voice saying, 'Look what you have done to this old lady, look what you have done to that child, look what you have done,' nothing else."

Now, the punishment Wiesel describes sounds a lot like torture to me—solidary confinement alone is torture—so I was a little taken aback that Wiesel called for it. But what about a humanitarian and professor of ethics like Wiesel failing to look into the source of his and his foundation's investment profits? In the case of Madoff, the source was theft—Madoff and his accomplices used new investors' money to pay interest to older investors (this is what a Ponzi scheme is). But what if Madoff had just been a "good" (i.e., effective) money-manager (albeit with less consistently, and suspiciously, reliable returns), and had been paying Wiesel and his foundation interest that came from, say, companies that outsourced jobs to sweatshops; leveraged buyouts of companies that were then gutted and resold; companies that pollute; companies engaged in predatory lending; etc. etc.—that is to say, the usual sources of Wall Street megaprofits? Madoff was stealing from people, but many a money-manager who hasn't been branded "the most hated man in New York" (as one of the tabloids, I believe, put it), or called a "monster" on the cover of New York magazine has been complicit in plenty of human misery. Would Wiesel have known?

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3/17/2009 01:02:00 PM 4 comments links to this post

 

AIG, Labor, and the Sanctity of Contracts

by Dollars and Sense

Today's main columnist in the New York Times business section, Andrew Ross Sorkin, echoes the comments Larry Summers made on TV this weekend with regard to the AIG bonuses and the sanctity of contracts. Sorkin quotes Obama: "[The issue of AIG bonuses] isn't just a matter of dollars and cents. It's about our fundamental values." Sorkin goes on:
On that last issue, lawyers, Wall Street types and compensation consultants agree with the president. But from their point of view, the "fundamental value" in question here is the sanctity of contracts.

That may strike many people as a bit of convenient legalese, but maybe there is something to it. If you think this economy is a mess now, imagine what it would look like if the business community started to worry that the government would start abrogating contracts left and right.

As much as we might want to void those A.I.G. pay contracts, Pearl Meyer, a compensation consultant at Steven Hall & Partners, says it would put American business on a worse slippery slope than it already is. Business agreements of other companies that have taken taxpayer money might fall into question. Even companies that have not turned to Washington might seize the opportunity to break inconvenient contracts.

Sorkin frets about whether government "abrogating contracts left and right" would lead companies to break contracts willy nilly. But it's more about the government, and companies, breaking contracts left, but not right. As Ali Frick points out at Think Progress, companies already seize opportunities to break inconvenient contracts—with unions. And the government, egged on by the right-wing, encouraged them to do so:
Yesterday on ABC's This Week, Larry Summers, head of President Obama's National Economic Council, called insurance giant AIG's plan to pay out $165 million in bonuses "outrageous" but insisted there was little the government could do about it. This despite the $170 billion in taxpayer funds that have been given to AIG. Summers cited the sanctity of contracts:
SUMMERS: We are a country of law. There are contracts. The government cannot just abrogate contracts. Every legal step possible to limit those bonuses is being taken by Secretary Geithner and by the Federal Reserve system.

Summers said that efforts by Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner had successfully "scaled back" the bonuses, but AIG chief Edward Liddy, defending the bonuses, told Geithner, "quite frankly, AIG's hands are tied."

Of course, not all contracts are sacrosanct. When Detroit's Big Three arrived in Washington last year to plead for federal bailout funds, the right wing demanded that the United Auto Workers ignore their contracts and accept "steep cuts in pay and benefits"—on top of the cuts they already shouldered in 2007. The UAW agreed to "make major concessions in its contracts," acceding to most of the right's demands:
UAW President Ron Gettelfinger emerged from the meeting to say the union would rework a retiree health care trust fund, eliminate the union's maligned jobs bank program…and cut additional measures that would loosen the union's trademark job-security protections.

Along with other commenters, the American Prospect's Robert Kuttner pointed out the government's double standard on contracts, telling George Stephanopoulos yesterday, "You don't think when the auto workers come in as part of the auto rescue deal, they're not being asked to abrogate contracts? Of course they are."

The Obama administration also supports rewriting mortgage contracts. It "has moved aggressively to pressure lenders to renegotiate the terms of mortgages," and Obama supports an idea to allow bankruptcy judges to change the terms of a mortgage to help homeowners stay afloat.

To his credit, Obama today ordered Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner "to use that leverage and pursue every single legal avenue to block these bonuses." But it's still clear that while workers' contractual benefits can be eviscerated in the name of bailout eligibility, millionaire bankers' bonuses are a more sacrosanct part of "a country of law" where "there are contracts."

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3/17/2009 09:58:00 AM 0 comments links to this post

 

Single-Payer Rally in Burlington TODAY

by Dollars and Sense

This is happening in about 45 minutes, but in case any of our readers happen to be in Burlington...

Hundreds of Activists to Rally in Burlington, Vermont Outside

White House Regional Forum on Healthcare—TUESDAY


Nurses, Doctors, Patients Call for Guaranteed Healthcare on the Single-Payer Model…And an End to Insurance Industry Denial of Care

WHAT: Hundreds of healthcare activists from throughout New England and across the country will rally outside the White House’s latest regional summit on healthcare, and demand that Congress include single-payer reforms in its debate and discussion, including U.S. Rep. John Conyers' HR 676

WHO: A broad coalition of healthcare reformers brought together by the Leadership Conference on Guaranteed Healthcare, which includes the National Nurses Organizing Committee/California Nurses Association (NNOC/CNA), Physicians for a National Health Program (PNHP), Healthcare Now, and Progressive Democrats of America (PDA)

WHEN: Tuesday March 17th; rally @ 11:30 a.m. featuring Dr. Deb Richter from PNHP

WHERE: Davis Center, University of Vermont-Burlington

WHY: "We can look around the world’s other industrialized democracies and see very clearly that a guaranteed healthcare system, such as an expanded and improved 'Medicare for All,' is the only way to provide patients with the care they need. We will come to Vermont to make sure that Congress hears from the nation's healthcare reformers as they are drafting this life-and-death legislation," said Geri Jenkins, RN, co-President of NNOC/CNA.

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3/17/2009 09:49:00 AM 0 comments links to this post

Monday, March 16, 2009

 

Jobless Hit with Bank Fees on Benefits

by Dollars and Sense

Here's another one that I have been meaning to post for a while. I haven't seen this anywhere else, so maybe you haven't either.

Bank of America is particularly egregious, imho. A few examples: although I am not among the "unbanked," I can identify with them, since sometimes I am close enough to living paycheck-to-paycheck that I need money fast and can't wait for a check to clear at my bank. The bank I use is a locally-owned one (Cambridge Trust), but my (other) employer, Harvard University, pays me in two lump sums twice a year drawing on Bank of America.

The BoA branch in Harvard Square has appalled me for many years. Over the past few years (ten or so) Harvard Square, formerly chocked full of locally-owned businesses, independent bookstores, coffee shops, etc. (does anyone else remember The Tasty?) has been repopulated by high-end chains, cellular phone stores, and ATMs. Sometime in this period, the Harvard Square BoA branch remodeled itself so that the street-level part of the branch, gleaming with marble and flat-screen TVs with stock-tickers, is reserved for—I'm not sure for whom, but I'm assuming big-account investors (with huge banks of ATMs, too, of course). Anyone who wants to go to a teller has to go downstairs into a dingy and low-ceilinged space reminiscent of a welfare office.

Last fall when I went to cash my twice-yearly paycheck from Harvard, not only did I have to go to the dingy downstairs, but the teller informed me that I would have to pay a $6 fee. For BoA to cash a check drawing on a BoA account. A check made payable to me, not to BoA. Since I really needed the money, I reluctantly agreed. Then the kicker: the teller pointed to a small black ink pad. They needed my fingerprint before they would cash my check. "It's for security," I was told. Apparently all this is legal. When I went to deposit my cash at my own bank, I told the teller about my experience. She was appalled. "That check was payable to you," she said.

(More recently, I've noticed that at least some BoA ATMs charge an outrageous $3 for out-of-network users.)

BoA (and the other big banks) are still following a profit model that involves leeching huge amounts of money, bit by bit, from the "unbanked" and the semi-banked. The big banks want a piece of the huge payday loan and check-cashing industry (which they themselves fund), and they are able to get it because so many people are locked out of mainstream banking, or are otherwise living on a financial edge. (For background on the big "respectable" banks' role in the "fringe economy," see this article from D&S a couple of years ago.)

Anyhow, this article from the Associated Press shows how such practices might fit into BoA's model for returning to profitability:
Jobless hit with bank fees on benefits

By CHRISTOPHER LEONARD | AP Business Writer | Fri Feb 20

For hundreds of thousands of workers losing their jobs during the recession, there's a new twist to their financial pain: Even as they're collecting unemployment benefits, they're paying bank fees just to get access to their money.

Thirty states have struck such deals with banks that include Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp., JPMorgan Chase and US Bancorp, an Associated Press review of the agreements found. All the programs carry fees, and in several states the unemployed have no choice but to use the debit cards. Some banks even charge overdraft fees of up to $20 — even though they could decline charges for more than what's on the card.

"It's a racket. It's a scam," said Rachel Davis, a 38-year-old dental technician from St. Louis who was laid off in October. Davis was given a MasterCard issued through Central Bank of Jefferson City and recently paid $6 to make two $40 withdrawals.

The banks say their programs offer convenience. They also provide at least one way to tap the money at no charge, such as using a single free withdrawal to get all the cash at once from a bank teller. But the banks benefit from human nature, as people end up treating the cards like all the other plastic in their wallets.

The fees are raising questions from lawmakers who just recently voted to infuse banks with taxpayer money to keep them afloat.

Rep. Carolyn Maloney, D-N.Y., a member of the House Financial Services Committee, said the situation points to "yet another example of how we need to regulate the ways in which banks charge overdraft and other fees."

Read the rest of the article.

(By the way, does anyone else wish that Carolyn Maloney had been NY Gov. Patterson's pick to replace Hillary Clinton? I don't know much about her, but I like what I've heard.)

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3/16/2009 10:10:00 AM 4 comments links to this post

 

New Report on Global Gender Pay Gap

by Dollars and Sense

Catching up on a backlog of stuff to post. Here is something that I should have posted for International Women's Day, March 8th. There's information about the pay-gap between men and women globally, and also information about the impact of the global financial crisis on women. Related D&S article here. Hat-tip to Bob F.

Brussels, 5 March 2009: A new report released by the ITUC for March 8, International Women's Day, has revealed that the pay gap between men and women worldwide may be much higher than official government figures. The report, "Gender (in)Equality in the Labour Market", is based on survey results of some 300,000 women and men in 20 countries. It puts the global pay gap at up to 22%, rather than the 16.5% figure taken from official government figures and released by the ITUC on March 8 last year.

The report also confirms previous findings that union membership, and particularly the inclusion of women in collective bargaining agreements, leads to much better incomes for both women and men, as well as better pay for women relative to their male co-workers. The study, which follows the March 8 ITUC Global Gender Pay Gap report, was written by London-based pay specialists Incomes Data Services and is based on internet surveys conducted in industrialised and developing countries in 2008 by the WageIndicator Foundation.

"This report clearly confirms the advantage which men and women workers gain from union membership, which is all the more important in the current global economic crisis when jobs and living standards for millions of workers are under severe threat," said Guy Ryder, ITUC general secretary.

Other key findings in the report include confirmation that women with higher educational qualifications actually experience a larger income gap compared to males with similar qualifications and that the pay gap increases with age.

"There are a number of reasons why women still earn so much less than men, including overt as well as subtle discrimination against women in the labour market and in the workplace, the way that employers, especially in the private sector, handle promotions to better-paid jobs, and lack of maternity protection for women and parenting leave that both men and women can access," said Sharan Burrow, president of the ITUC and of the Australian Trade Union Centre ACTU.

Read the rest of the press release.

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3/16/2009 10:04:00 AM 0 comments links to this post

 

Our RSS Feed Is Working Again

by Dollars and Sense

To blog subscribers: You may have noticed that our feed was down this weekend (starting at around 2pm on Friday). It's back up. It was a problem with Google/Blogger; apparently lots of other blogs had the same problem.

Here's what you missed (unless you visited the site directly):

Not a ton of posts. To be honest, I took the downed RSS feed as an excuse to relax a little over the weekend. There will be more today, though.

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3/16/2009 09:33:00 AM 2 comments links to this post

Saturday, March 14, 2009

 

AIG Head Insists On Giving Millions In Bonuses

by Dollars and Sense

AIG, the company that has received more bailout billions than any other institution ($140 billion and the meter is still running), is forging ahead with its plan to dole out over $700 million in bonuses and "retention pay" to the "indispensable" people in charge of its financial products operation.

Despite a reported angry phone call from Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, AIG CEO Edward Liddy claims that his hands are tied lest his top talent leave the firm in search of better offers.

"I do not like these arrangements and find it distasteful and difficult to recommend to you that we must proceed with them," Liddy wrote in a letter to Geithner, as reported in the Washington Post. "Our competitors understand how valuable our top executives are, and we are acutely aware that they would like to siphon off our most talented leaders," he continued.

Apparently the prospect of AIG geniuses finding work at other financial institutions deemed "too big to fail" (read "will demand taxpayer bailout after looting ceases") convinced Geithner to forget the whole thing.

Incidentally, the Post notes that if the Treasury had decided to properly nationalize the company instead of just taking on an 80% stake as a silent partner, the government could have canceled all such payments and unilaterally rewritten the the company's employment contracts.

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3/14/2009 11:47:00 PM 2 comments links to this post

Friday, March 13, 2009

 

Pity the Overtaxed Rich

by Dollars and Sense

A letter to the editor in the Boston Globe today, not the first of its kind in recent days, asserts that high-income households already pay an unfair share of taxes.

Dr. Dollar debunked this idea back in 2002. The federal income tax may be mildly progressive, but add in payroll taxes (Social Security and Medicare) and state and local taxes, mostly regressive, and tax collections overall leave the highly-skewed distribution of income relatively untouched. 

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3/13/2009 09:37:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

Can Marijuana Rescue the Cali Economy?

by Dollars and Sense

From Time.com (the website of Time magazine). There is a "related" link to an article entitled: "The Doctor's View: Why I'm Not Against, Like, Oh Wow Man, Pot." Should we be offended by the stereotype of people who enjoy MJ? Or maybe that's just how doctors talk in Cali.

By Alison Stateman | Los Angeles | Friday, Mar. 13, 2009

Could marijuana be the answer to the economic misery facing California? Democratic state assemblyman Tom Ammiano thinks so. Ammiano introduced legislation last month that would legalize pot and allow the state to regulate and tax its sale — a move that could mean billions of dollars for the cash-strapped state. Pot is, after all, California's biggest cash crop, responsible for $14 billion a year in sales, dwarfing the state's second largest agricultural commodity — milk and cream — which brings in $7.3 billion a year, according to the most recent USDA statistics. The state's tax collectors estimate the bill would bring in about $1.3 billion a year in much needed revenue, offsetting some of the billions of dollars in service cuts and spending reductions outlined in the recently approved state budget.

"The state of California is in a very, very precipitous economic plight. It's in the toilet," says Ammiano. "It looks very, very bleak, with layoffs and foreclosures, and schools closing or trying to operate four days a week. We have one of the highest rates of unemployment we've ever had. With any revenue ideas, people say you have to think outside the box, you have to be creative, and I feel that the issue of the decriminalization, regulation and taxation of marijuana fits that bill. It's not new, the idea has been around, and the political will may in fact be there to make something happen."

Ammiano may be right. A few days after he introduced the bill, U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder announced that states should be able to make their own rules for medical marijuana and that federal raids on pot dispensaries in California would cease. The move signaled a softening of the hard-line approach to medicinal pot use previous Administrations have taken. The nomination of Gil Kerlikowske as the head of the Office of National Drug Control Policy may also signal a softer federal line on marijuana. If he is confirmed as the so-called drug czar, Kerlikowske will take with him experience as police chief of Seattle, where he made it clear that going after people for possessing marijuana was not a priority for his force.

Read the rest of the article.

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3/13/2009 03:55:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

Auto Supplier and Six Flags Going Down

by Dollars and Sense

The car won't run and the park is closed.

GM and Chrysler parts supplier American Axle appears headed for bankruptcy. The company's stock traded at $30 a share in 2007, but is now worth only pennies and will soon be delisted by the NYSE.

Although the auto companies have received billions in federal bailout funds, parts suppliers have not, although proposals are floating around to include them in future plans. American Axle slashed 3,000 workers last year while losing $118 million.

Theme park operator Six Flags Inc seems next in line for bankruptcy protection. The company appears unable to meet future payments to investors and creditors after a report that the company lost over $200 million in the final quarter of 2008.

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3/13/2009 12:47:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

Insider Report on the Health Care Summit

by Dollars and Sense

Thanks to activist pressure, single-payer advocate Oliver Fein, MD, was allowed to participate in the White House health care summit. In his extensive post, Dr. Fein gives an inside account of the summit and lays out some reasons for cautious optimism for those pushing for a single-payer universal health care system.

The major single-payer bill in the House is HR 676. Dr. Fein reports that Senator Bernie Sanders is planning on proposing a counterpart bill in the Senate shortly.

From the Beaver County Blue website:

Thanks to many grassroots activists and physicians who called the White House and threatened to demonstrate outside its gates, I was at the Health Care Summit at the White House on March 5 along with Rep. John Conyers Jr. (D-Mich.). And it was good thing. It meant that the single-payer position was recognized as one pathway to health care reform. It also meant that one of our concerns was present: namely, that any health care reform that includes the for-profit, private health insurance companies will fail to provide universal coverage, will not be able to reduce heath care costs, and will increase the number of underinsured.

It’s important to note that there were others at the summit who are known to be sympathetic to single payer, including some past and present co-sponsors of H.R. 676 and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. (More on Sanders below.)

That said, it is true that the summit was carefully choreographed. The opening plenary featured Travis Ulerick, a 24-year-old firefighter from Dublin, Ind., who had sponsored a "health care community discussion" (house party) in his fire station in December. He read off the names of six other people who had hosted similar house parties who had been invited to participate in the summit.

Ulerick called attention to a booklet, "Report on Health Care Community Discussions," which was distributed to all summit participants. It focuses on cost, access, quality and system performance as the major problems facing the American health care system. As solutions, it offers creation of a health insurance exchange, reducing prescription drug costs, research and standards to improve quality and efficiency, simplification and information technology, education for wellness and the promotion of healthy lifestyles.

Interestingly, in the middle of the report, there is a box labeled Single-Payer System, which states: "Over one-quarter (27 percent) of the groups discussed the merits of a single-payer system, and the majority of those groups supported this idea. These groups argue that this radical change was a necessary step for reform."


Read the full post here.

Read Joel A. Harrison's article on how U.S. taxpayers aren't getting what they're paying despite massive health care spending (from our May/June 2008 issue), and go here for more D&S coverage of health care issues.

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3/13/2009 11:16:00 AM 1 comments links to this post

 

Berkeshire Hathaway Loses AAA Rating

by Dollars and Sense

Hat-tip to the guy I overheard at the next table at the internet cafe I'm hanging out in.

Buffett's Berkshire Has AAA Debt Rating Cut by Fitch

By Erik Holm | March 12 (Bloomberg)

Billionaire Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. had its top-level AAA credit rating cut by Fitch Ratings, which cited concern about the potential for losses on the insurer’s equity and derivatives holdings.

Buffett's role as chief investment officer also puts the company at risk if he becomes unable to do the job, Fitch said in a statement. Fitch cut the so-called issuer default rating on Berkshire to AA+, and senior unsecured debt to AA. The insurance and reinsurance units kept their AAA status, with a negative outlook for all entities, Fitch said.

"Fitch views this risk as unrelated to Mr. Buffett's age, but rather Fitch's belief that Berkshire's record of outstanding long-term investment results and the company's ability to identify and purchase attractive operating companies is intimately tied to Mr. Buffett," Fitch said. Buffett is 78.

Berkshire joins General Electric Co., which was downgraded by Standard & Poor's today and lost its status as one of the remaining AAA companies in the U.S. Berkshire stock fell 35 percent in 12 months on concern that Buffett's bets on derivatives—instruments he has called "financial weapons of mass destruction"—will crush profit at the firm.

Read the rest of the article.

If I'd been keeping up with Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism, I'd have found out sooner. Here's what she had to say:

Ah, the mighty are fallen, or more accurately, falling.

Fitch is generally the first to whack ratings (unless you count the feisty but not given sufficient credit newcomer, Egan Jones).

Note this does not (yet) appear to affect Berkshire's new muni bond guarantee business, since the insurance and reinsurance units kept their top ratings, albeit with a negative outlook.

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3/13/2009 10:45:00 AM 0 comments links to this post

 

FDIC Collected No Premiums From 1996 to 2006

by Dollars and Sense

The Boston Globe reports that Congress prevented the FDIC from collecting premiums from banks for 10 years because it was considered "well capitalized" and because bank failures were so rare.

The agency, which insures bank deposits up to $250,000, is currently seeking emergency powers to borrow up to $500 billion from the U.S. Treasury as strained banks are unable to pay the increased fees necessary to fully restore the fund.

At the end of 2007 the FDIC had $52.4 billion in its insurance fund. A year later this was reduced to $18.9 billion, in addition to the $22 billion set aside for pending bank failures. The agency estimates that it will need $65 to cover bank failures through 2013, however it will likely need far more if it is forced to take over megabanks like Citibank or Bank of America.

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3/13/2009 12:12:00 AM 0 comments links to this post

Thursday, March 12, 2009

 

Net Worth Plummets

by Dollars and Sense

The Fed reported today that household net worth has fallen for a sixth straight quarter. The latest quarterly drop was a staggering 9%, the largest quarterly drop since record-keeping began in 1951.

Household net worth has fallen 20% from its high of $64.36 trillion in the second quarter of 2007 to $51.48 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2008.

Over 4 million jobs have been lost since the recession formally began at the end of 2007.

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3/12/2009 02:08:00 PM 1 comments links to this post

 

Singing the Same Old Song: An EFCA Game

by Dollars and Sense

This is from vivaelbund at the Labor Nerd blog, via Talking Labor, a project of the DSA Labor Network. Hat-tip to Ben C.

Let's play a game! Below are six quotes from various conservative politicians, business representatives and other organizations. Three of them are from the 1930s and were aimed at the Wagner Act. The other three are about the Employee Free Choice Act. Can you guess which are which? Answers at the bottom.

1. "Specifically, the provisions of the bill will operate to provoke and encourage labor disputes, rather than diminish them . . . Its real effect will be to serve as a vehicle for the advancement of the selfish interests of minority labor organizations."

2. "Unions want it because it would make it easier to recruit dues-paying members, not because it would somehow defend workers' right to choose freely to unionize."

3. "To support labor in this objective by enacting this bill would permanently close the door to recovery."

4. "The act is a poison pill for our ailing economy, which is why every major business organization from every industry sector has come out in strong opposition to it."

5. "My general criticism of the . . . bill is not so much that it supports unionization as that it will in operation result in enforced unionization."

6. "Labor unions are supposed to protect workers' rights, yet union bosses want Congress to pass a law that actually robs workers of their democratic right . . . through a forced unionization process."

1. Walter Harnischfeger, National Association of Manufacturers, March 21, 1935

2. Heritage Foundation, April 23, 2007

3. Guy Harrington, National Publishers Association, March 29, 1935

4. Brian Worth, Coalition for a Democratic Workplace, February 25, 2009

5. J.M. Larkin, Bethlehem Steel, April 5, 1935

6. Senator Orrin Hatch, June 26, 2007

vivaelbund is nomme de blog of a member of the Labor Nerd blog, an exciting new blog by young union staffers, academics, and activists, where it originally appeared.

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3/12/2009 01:11:00 PM 1 comments links to this post

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

 

Christina Romer Defends Fiscal Stimulus

by Dollars and Sense

Romer is chair of the president’s Council of Economic Advisers (and an economic historian at Berkeley). In a talk at the Brookings Institution on Monday, she took on the crowd claiming that Keynesian fiscal stimulus policies failed in the 1930s:
I wrote a paper in 1992 that said that fiscal policy was not the key engine of recovery in the Depression. From this, some have concluded that I do not believe fiscal policy can work today or could have worked in the 1930s. Nothing could be farther from the truth. My argument paralleled E. Cary Brown’s famous conclusion that in the Great Depression, fiscal policy failed to generate recovery “not because it does not work, but because it was not tried.” The key fact is that while Roosevelt’s fiscal actions were a bold break from the past, they were nevertheless small relative to the size of the problem.
A good omen for fiscal policy.

Alas, her remarks were disappointing on the deeper question of the causes of the crisis:
Most obviously, like the Great Depression, today’s downturn had its fundamental cause in the decline in asset prices and the failure or near-failure of financial institutions.
Too bad she didn't talk about the steep rise in inequality; stagnant real wages; households’ expanding use of credit to fill the gap between those stagnant wages and rising living costs; excess capacity and overproduction...

Read the whole talk here.

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3/11/2009 11:49:00 AM 0 comments links to this post

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

 

Treasury Lacks Oversight Of Bailout Billions

by Dollars and Sense

Congressional investigators have discovered that some of the largest banks receiving U.S. taxpayer bailout funds have been lending billions of dollars overseas.

Among the findings, Citigroup (recipient of $45 billion in bailout funds) lent $8 billion to investors in Dubai, and Bank of America (which got another $45 billion) lent $7 billion for a project in China.

The investigators found that the Treasury had few controls for tracking the bailout money for the 20 largest banks, and no controls at all for the other 297 smaller banks.

According to the Washington Post:

The report also raises questions about Goldman Sachs's $2 billion repurchase of its own stock in December, which caused the share value to increase almost 20 percent. That would have been a significant financial benefit for senior executives, who usually own large amounts of company stock. Congressional investigators are looking at whether the deal was an inappropriate way to enrich those top employees despite a public clamor for strict limits on executive compensation.

Spokesmen for the banks either declined to comment or did not respond to e-mail and telephone messages yesterday.

"Treasury has not safeguarded taxpayers' money, yet Treasury is prepared to keep investing in a failed economic strategy when they don't even know what happened to the money they gave in the first place," Kucinich said. "This is a textbook definition of a taxpayer's nightmare."


Full story here.

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3/10/2009 06:14:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

Renters Hit Hard In Foreclosure Crisis

by Dollars and Sense

Renters make up 40% of the people facing eviction because of foreclosure. Banks don't care if the tenants have a lease or have been paying on time, they just want the buildings to be emptied out.

While this might have made some sense during boom years, it is a terrible deal for everyone in a bust. Vacant buildings are targets of vandals, so the buildings can lose almost all their value. Vacant properties are a blight on surrounding properties, sinking the property values and social wealth of entire neighborhoods.

Worst off are the tenants. They often receive threatening letters from banks and lenders with only days or a few weeks notice. The paltry sums offered by the banks rarely covers lost security deposits, moving expenses, or the substantial costs of moving into a new place.

The Obama housing plan skipped over the issue. Activist groups like Boston's City Life/Vida Urbana and legal aid organizations are organizing tenants and fighting back, but it will take government action and new laws and tough enforcement to change the equation.

Check out the article Renters in the Crosshairs in the latest Dollars & Sense.

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3/10/2009 05:58:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

A Couple of Items on the Bank Bailout

by Dollars and Sense

Here are a couple of items on the bank bailout that I've been meaning to post. First is a post from back in late February (seems like years!) on Megan McArdle's blog at the Atlantic (whose spiffy redesign I admire, if not the politics of its columnists). It is a response to this post on Paul Krugman's blog at the New York Times, but it relates to Fred Moseley's cover article in the March/April issue of D&S. Here's McAdle's post in full:
Lost

Paul Krugman channels Adam Posen on Japan's lost decade, and what it means for us:
The guarantees that the US government has already extended to the banks in the last year, and the insufficient (though large) capital injections without government control or adequate conditionality also already given under TARP, closely mimic those given by the Japanese government in the mid-1990s to keep their major banks open without having to recognize specific failures and losses. The result then, and the emerging result now, is that the banks' top management simply burns through that cash, socializing the losses for the taxpayer, grabbing any rare gains for management payouts or shareholder dividends, and ending up still undercapitalized. Pretending that distressed assets are worth more than they actually are today for regulatory purposes persuades no one besides the regulators, and just gives the banks more taxpayer money to spend down, and more time to impose a credit crunch.

These kind of half-measures to keep banks open rather than disciplined are precisely what the Japanese Ministry of Finance engaged in from their bubble's burst in 1992 through to 1998 ...

Why is the government so reluctant to hand losses to the bondholders? The standard explanation on both far left and far right is that Treasury and the Fed are in the pocket of the banking industry, and Geithner et. al. are simply bailing out their corporate masters. I don't entirely discount this theory, though I would (and did) put it more nicely: all the information the regulators has comes from the people they are trying to regulate. This naturally biases them towards the regulated. Every time I am tempted to get outraged about this, I think through the alternative: regulators who don't have much interaction with those they oversee. I'll take Tim Geithner over Maxine Waters any day of the week, and twice on Sunday.

And in this case, I don't think that's the whole, or even the greatest part, of the explanation. Rather, I think their problem is largely political: avoiding the "n" word, yes, but more importantly, avoiding any more crisis injections of capital into the system.

It's easy to blithely say "Why don't they just make the bondholders take a haircut?" Harder when you think about who those bondholders are: insurers. pension funds. the bond component of your 401(k). Financial debt makes up something like a third of the bond market, and the largest holders are pensions and insurers.

The insurers are the biggest problem, because they're just so heavily regulated. They're not allowed to hold risky assets. Convert their bonds to equity and they will be forced to dump that equity at prices that will trend towards zero. Many insurers will see their capital impaired below the regulatory limits, requiring a government bailout.

Pension funds are the next biggest problem. They're already in big trouble because of stock market declines. The bonds are the "safe" portion of their portfolio, the stuff that's supposed ot be akin to ready cash. Convert their bonds to equity--or worse, default--and suddenly they're illiquid and even further underwater.

Nor is the 401(k) problem small. Bond funds are typically held most heavily by the people closest to retirement; they're for income, not capital gains. What is your mother going to do when a third of her mutual fund income gets converted to equity that produces no cash and can't be sold because the insurers have all had to dump their shares on the market at once? Or simply disappears into the land of bankruptcy lawsuits?

There's also the problem of what it does to the ability of banks to raise capital. Bank bonds are sold on the implicit assumption that the taxpayer, not the lender, will eat capital deficiencies. Changing that understanding risks runs on the bank a la Lehman whenever a financial institution looks the least bit shaky. Banks are inherently highly leveraged institutions even in a good regulatory environment; this might make our banking system much more volatile in the future. It's somewhat akin to what would happen if we simply announced that the FDIC would stop tomorrow.

I think what Geithner et. al. fear is that nationalizing or reorganization will put the government on the hook for massive and immediate losses in both the banking system, and the "safe" entities that lent it money. I fear they may be right. But I think the lesson of Japan is that we have to do it anyway. I don't know what form the fix should take. I don't know how painful the fix will be. But I'm pretty sure any fix that makes us recognize the losses, recapitalize the banks, and move on, will be better than two decades of zombie banks and glacial growth.

I asked Fred Moseley (who, again, wrote our current cover article on bank nationalization) how he would respond to McArdle. Here's what he wrote back to me:
My main response to McArdle is this: if it is true that the only way to avoid an economic catastrophe is to bail out the banks and their bondholders with taxpayer money, then I would say that this strengthens the case for the nationalization of systematically significant banks. If taxpayers have to pay for their losses this time, then surely we want to make sure that we never have to pay again, that we are never put in this situation again. And the best way to ensure that it never happens again is to nationalize the systemically significant banks. Then we would never again be forced to decide between bailing out the bondholders or economic armageddon.

I was shocked to read: "Bank bonds are sold on the IMPLICIT ASSUMPTION that the taxpayer, not the lender, will eat capital deficiencies." Really? The bondholders make money on the assumption that taxpayers will eat the losses? What a racket!

In addition, as I argue in my article, there is a third alternative, nationalization with debt-equity swaps (for unsecured senior creditors). And this nationalization should be permanent, pace above, so we never have to face a similar crisis again.

On the difficulties of debt-equity swaps for insurance companies (the "biggest problem"): just declare that insurance companies will be allowed to own THESE equities, and ONLY these equities. The non-equity rule is intended to prohibit insurance companies from making risky investments. Well, it is too late for that; the cows are already out of the barn. The insurance companies have already made these risky investments. The only alternative to allowing the insurance companies to own these equities is for taxpayers to pay for their losses. Allowing the insurance companies to own these equities is clearly the only equitable option.

On pension funds: bank debt is less than 2% of the total assets of pension funds. So a modest loss on bank debt would not be that significant, especially since the values of all the other assets of pension funds are falling too. Plus, the managers of these pension funds made investment decisions for which they, not the taxpayers, should not bear the consequences. Maybe the management of these pension funds should be changed.

So in the end McArdle seems to want pseudo-nationalization, without bondholder haircuts and with large taxpayer losses. She wants to make explicit the "implicit assumption" that taxpayers eat the losses. The only way to avoid this is real nationalization, with haircuts for the bondholders.

When Fred says "the only way to avoid this is real nationalization," he's including under the rubric of "nationalization" the possibility that the gubm't could set up "good banks," and I'm assuming that in that scenario the "too big to fail" banks could be allowed to whither and die (i.e. enter into bankruptcy, and let the good assets be sorted from the bad in court). This is what Joseph Stiglitz seemed to be saying in his presidential address to the Eastern Economics Association meetings a few weeks ago (about which I blogged here; his article in the current issue of The Nation seems to be more of a proposal for pseudo-(i.e., temporary) nationalization, however). Something like a "whither and die" proposal also seems to be Dave Lindorff's position in a recent piece over at Counterpunch:
The futility and stupidity of the Fed's and the Obama administration's policy of pumping ever more money into failing banks and insurance companies in a vain effort to get them lending again was demonstrated—if anyone was paying attention—by the collapse in auto sales this past month, with all the leading companies, Ford, GM and Toyota, reporting sales down by about 40%.

This fall off in car buying was despite record discounting by the auto industry, and offers of 0% financing.

Clearly, obtaining financing is not the reason people are not buying cars.

People are not buying cars because they are worried about having a job to enable them to pay back the loan.

It's the same reason people aren't buying houses. It's not that you cannot get a mortgage. There are plenty of smaller banks that would be happy to lend money to buy a house these days. But who's going to go out and buy a house in this economy? First of all, to buy a house, unless you are a first-time buyer, you have to sell your current house, but that would mean taking a huge loss. Indeed, one in five homes in America today is technically "underwater"—that is, it is worth less than the outstanding mortgage on the property. Probably another one in five are worth little more than the outstanding mortgage. No one would sell a house under either such circumstance.

The point here is that if people aren't willing to spend money, then what good is it to give more money to banks and their shareholders, in hopes that they will start lending it? The lending business has two sides—those offering to make a loan, and those wanting to borrow. If there's no borrower, no amount of money available for lending is going to change the fact that there will be no loans written.

Read the rest of the article.

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3/10/2009 01:29:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

Ha-Joon Chang on Democracy Now

by Dollars and Sense

Cambridge University economist Ha-Joon Chang was on Democracy Now! today. (Hat-tip to Taki M.) We ran an online review of his book Bad Samaritans: The Myth of Free Trade and the Secret History of Capitalism by Mark Engler a couple of months ago. Here are some excerpts from the DN! interview:

AMY GOODMAN: The US government has poured hundreds of billions of dollars into the US economy in the wake of the financial crisis. But what steps are being taken to address the crisis on a global scale? On Sunday, the World Bank warned of the first global recession since World War II, with the world economy set to shrink for the first time since the 1940s. The bank also cautioned that the cost of helping poorer nations in crisis would exceed the current financial resources of multilateral lenders. The economic crisis is projected to push around 46 million people into poverty this year.

The financial crisis is forcing some to rethink the neoliberal policies widely blamed for the financial collapse. On Monday, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown called for a new international fund to support poorer countries during the global recession. He also acknowledged richer Western nations have often imposed economic policies on poorer countries that they haven't followed themselves.
PRIME MINISTER GORDON BROWN: We will work with the World Bank and our G20 partners to build support for a new fund specifically to help the world's poorest through the downturn. Too often, our responses to past crises have been inadequate or misdirected, promoting economic orthodoxies that we ourselves have not followed and that have condemned the world's poorest to a deepening crisis of poverty.

AMY GOODMAN: Brown says he'll raise the issue of a global fund at the next G20 meeting in July.

Well, my first guest has been among the leading economists to criticize the neoliberal policies imposed on poor nations but not followed by the West. Ha-Joon Chang is an economist at the University of Cambridge specializing in developmental economics. In 2005, he was awarded the Leontief Prize for Advancing the Frontiers of Economic Thought. He is author of the books Kicking Away the Ladder: Development Strategy in Historical Perspective, and his latest is called Bad Samaritans: The Myth of Free Trade and the Secret History of Capitalism.

Welcome to Democracy Now!, as you come from, well, Gordon Brown's country to this one. First, what is your assessment of the situation right now? Warren Buffett has just said that the economy has gone off a cliff.

HA-JOON CHANG: Well, I think we are facing the biggest economic crisis since the Great Depression. Now, it probably wouldn't get as bad as the Great Depression, because, unlike in the Great Depression, governments are more willing to intervene with deficit spending and nationalizing financial institutions and giving subsidies to industry and so on, whereas in the 1930s they more kind of adamantly held onto free market doctrines, which they subsequently abandoned, but, I mean, there was a period of time when they just held onto it and lost the opportunity. So I don't think the impact would not be as severe as what it was in the 1930s, but yes, I mean, there's no question that this is as big or possibly even bigger a crisis than what we saw in 1929.

Read the rest of the transcript, or watch the video.

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3/10/2009 01:08:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

Monday, March 09, 2009

 

Hey Econ Profs - Get Your Textbooks Here

by Dollars and Sense

An economist is walking down the street with a friend.

The friend stops and says "Hey look, a $20 bill on the ground!"

The economist coolly replies "Can't be. If there was a $20 bill on the ground someone would have picked it up by now."

That old joke pretty much describes the current mindset of orthodox economics in U.S. academia despite the current global financial meltdown, as nicely described in the NYT article below.

For those teaching economics who don't have time for new generation of textbooks to be written, check out Dollars & Sense classroom readers and books.

Ivory Tower Unswayed by Crashing Economy
By PATRICIA COHEN

For years economists who have challenged free market theory have been the Rodney Dangerfields of the profession. Often ignored or belittled because they questioned the orthodoxy, they say, they have been shut out of many economics departments and the most prestigious economics journals. They got no respect.

That was before last fall's crash took the economics establishment by surprise. Since then the former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan has admitted that he was shocked to discover a flaw in the free market model and has even begun talking about temporarily nationalizing some banks. A Newsweek cover last month declared, "We Are All Socialists Now." And at the latest annual meeting of the American Economic Association, Janet Yellen, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said, "The new enthusiasm for fiscal stimulus, and particularly government spending, represents a huge evolution in mainstream thinking."

Yet prominent economics professors say their academic discipline isn't shifting nearly as much as some people might think. Free market theory, mathematical models and hostility to government regulation still reign in most economics departments at colleges and universities around the country. True, some new approaches have been explored in recent years, particularly by behavioral economists who argue that human psychology is a crucial element in economic decision making. But the belief that people make rational economic decisions and the market automatically adjusts to respond to them still prevails.


Read the full article here.

Get D&S exam copies here.

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3/09/2009 04:18:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

Several Links on Capitalism/Socialism

by Dollars and Sense

Here are some links that have crossed our virtual desks on the topic(s) (roughly) of capitalism's implosion, allegations that the bailout constitutes "socialism," and what the crisis means for the prospects of establishing actual socialism. (These are from a variety of viewpoints.)
  • The Nation is running a series entitled "Reimagining Socialism," which the editors introduced thus: "Socialism's all the rage. 'We Are All Socialists Now,' Newsweek declares. As the right wing tells it, we're already living in the U.S.S.A. But what do self-identified socialists (and their progressive friends) have to say about the global economic crisis? We hope that Barbara Ehrenreich and Bill Fletcher Jr.'s 'Reimagining Socialism: Rising to the Occasion' will kick off a spirited dialogue."

    Here's the link to the introductory piece by Ehrenreich and Fletcher.

    Here's a tidbit from Immanuel Wallerstein's piece from that series:
    The immediate short run is what concerns most people who are facing joblessness, seriously lowered income and in many cases homelessness. If left movements have no plan for this short run, they cannot connect in any meaningful way with most people.

    The second occasion is the structural crisis of capitalism as a world system, which is facing, in my opinion, its certain demise in the next twenty to forty years. This is the middle run. And if the left has no plan for this middle run, what replaces capitalism as a world system will be something worse, probably far worse, than the terrible system in which we have been living for the past five centuries.

    The two occasions require different, but combined, tactics.

    Here's the rest.

    And here are some tidbits from Tariq Ali's contribution:
    Before addressing the question, a few points of disagreement. Despite mocking those on the left who, in the past, saw every downturn as an opportunity to proclaim that the end of capitalism was nigh, the authors fall into the same trap. This time, we are told, the "patient may not get up from the table." I don't agree. Capitalism is always faced with crises, which are part of the deadly logic of an economy based on a state-buttressed market system. It has failed many times before but has recovered, including during periods when it confronted real political challenges. Its ability to adapt and survive should not be underestimated, even though it will do so, as before, at the expense of the majority it exploits.

    Until the emergence of a viable sociopolitical and economic alternative, perceived by a majority as such, there will be no final crisis of capitalism. In order to save themselves, today's elites will consider approaches to the crisis that preserve the status quo. The choice they are faced with domestically is between establishing a public utility credit and banking operation geared to reviving a productive sector, or shoring up a discredited, deregulated Wall Street/City of London operation based on fictive capital. The bailouts in New York and London are designed to do the latter. Globally, it's more difficult to accept a loss of Atlanticist control, but if pressure continues to mount, the Far Eastern bloc might suggest a new set of institutions based on multilateral rather than imperial control, leading to dismantling but also renewal.
    Here's the rest.

  • Moving along, Carl Bloice at BlackCommentator.com has a piece entitled Obama and Rescuing Capitalism:
    Back in December, when it was obvious that the economy was in bad shape and before we knew how precarious it could get, Fareed Zakaria, editor of Newsweek International and columnist for Newsweek and the Washington Post, wrote, "For Obama to be remembered as a great president, he has to do nothing less than rescue capitalism." When I first read those words my first thought was: that's a lot of weight to put on a brother. I suppose Zakaria has had second thoughts about this as it is becoming increasingly obvious that in either the medium or the long term, it will take a lot more than the President to rescue the system. Set aside for the moment the question of the possibility or even desirability of saving capitalism; right now, most people are entrusting the President to do something about the present catastrophe.

    The fact is, capitalism is bankrupt. It's run out of capital. "I think we just have to admit we're broke," says House Minority Leader John A. Boehner. A system that is supposed to be self-perpetuating—albeit with ups and downs—has come up short. It's not that the banks are just stubborn about lending out money. It will soon become clear that many of their vaults are stuffed with near worthless paper. And so to keep going, the system must turn to the public. Funds collected through taxation to "protect the general welfare" of the country are being siphoned off into the tanks of banks, financial speculation operations and insurance companies. The government is propping them up by buying up their assets. Regrettably, the Feds are not acquiring much control over how the injected funds are used.

    Read the rest of the article.

  • And this from Martin Wolf chez the Financial Times:
    Another ideological god has failed. The assumptions that ruled policy and politics over three decades suddenly look as outdated as revolutionary socialism.

    "The nine most terrifying words in the English language are: 'I'm from the government and I'm here to help.'" Thus quipped Ronald Reagan, hero of US conservatism. The remark seems ancient history now that governments are pouring trillions of dollars, euros and pounds into financial systems.

    "Governments bad; deregulated markets good": how can this faith escape unscathed after Alan Greenspan, pupil of Ayn Rand and predominant central banker of the era, described himself, in congressional testimony last October, as being "in a state of shocked disbelief" over the failure of the "self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholders' equity"?

    Read the rest of the article.

  • Last but not least (and certainly not least left!), Michael Parenti weighs in in this piece from countercurrents.org:
    After the overthrow of communist governments in Eastern Europe, capitalism was paraded as the indomitable system that brings prosperity and democracy, the system that would prevail unto the end of history.

    The present economic crisis, however, has convinced even some prominent free-marketeers that something is gravely amiss. Truth be told, capitalism has yet to come to terms with several historical forces that cause it endless trouble: democracy, prosperity, and capitalism itself, the very entities that capitalist rulers claim to be fostering.

    Read the rest of the article.

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3/09/2009 11:19:00 AM 0 comments links to this post

 

Financial Times on 'The Future of Capitalism'

by Dollars and Sense

FT launches this new series today. The first day’s pieces dutifully concede that neoliberal policies with respect to the financial sector have failed—but the questioning doesn't go too much deeper so far...

Check it out here.

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3/09/2009 10:12:00 AM 0 comments links to this post

 

Sen. Labor Committee Hearing on Abuse--TODAY

by Dollars and Sense

A press release from our friends at Interfaith Worker Justice, about a hearing this afternoon. Kim Bobo, author of Wage Theft in America (and this excerpt we posted here) will testify. Sorry for the delay posting.

Senate Labor Committee to Hold Hearing on Extreme Abuses

Wage Theft Expert Kim Bobo to Deliver Testimony


Kim Bobo, Founder and Executive Director of Interfaith Worker Justice and the author of the recently-published Wage Theft in America: Why Millions of Working Americans Are Not Getting Paid—And What We Can Do About It, will present testimony on Monday (March 9) at 2:30 p.m. in Room 430 of the Dirksen Senate Office Building, at Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions hearings on "Preventing Worker Exploitation: Protecting Individuals With Disabilities and Other Vulnerable Populations".

Bobo will be available for media interviews immediately following the hearings.

The hearings were prompted by recent shocking reports of the squalid housing conditions and illegal deductions from the paychecks of disabled workers at a turkey processing plant in eastern Iowa. Last month federal police, state health inspectors and county prosecutors ordered an emergency evacuation of the living quarters and launched a major investigation into Texas-based Henry's Turkey Service, a company that for more than three decades has employed mentally retarded men with Iowa's West Liberty Foods meat-processing plant.

As alarming as this report is, it is not nearly as uncommon as one might imagine. In her testimony Monday, Bobo will underscore the pervasiveness of the practice of illegal paycheck deduction—one of the many faces of wage theft.

Bobo's is the first book-length study of the national epidemic of wage theft, which has been called "the crime wave no one talks about." Wage Theft in America not only anatomizes the crisis but offers a bold new vision for how the Department of Labor can fix the problem. In a jacket blurb for the book, Senator Edward M. Kennedy (D-MA), who chairs the Senate committee, praised Bobo for writing "an excellent and informative book on one of the most pressing issues facing millions of hardworking Americans." The book, he said, "offers bold, practical, and progressive solutions for how policymakers and advocates can end the growing crisis of wage theft in America."

WHAT: Senate Committee Hearing: "Preventing Worker Exploitation: Protecting Individuals With Disabilities and Other Vulnerable Populations"

WHO: Kim Bobo, Founder and Executive Director of Interfaith Worker Justice (and others)

WHEN: Monday, March 9, 2:30 p.m.

WHERE: Room 430 of the Dirksen Senate Office Building

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3/09/2009 09:01:00 AM 0 comments links to this post

 

More Craziness: Japan Runs Record CA Deficit

by Dollars and Sense

From The Financial Times:

Japan in record current account deficit
By Michiyo Nakamoto in Tokyo
Financial Times
Published: March 9 2009 02:07 | Last updated: March 9 2009 05:39

Japan suffered its largest current account deficit ever in January, reflecting the impact of plunging global demand on its export-dependent economy and raising concerns that it was now in a depression.

Japan's current account fell into deficit for the first time since 1996 and at Y172.8bn ($1.75bn, €1.39bn) was much larger than the Y15.3bn shortfall forecast by economists.

The sharp deterioration in the current account balance highlights the impact that falling demand, a higher yen and lower interest payments have had on Japan's revenues from overseas.

That in turn has led to a rash of job cuts and factory closures that have added to the economic gloom.

Corporate bankruptcies in Japan rose 10.4 per cent year-on-year in February, in the ninth straight month of increases, according to Tokyo Shoko Research.

Japanese policymakers have scrambled to counter the damage wrought by the global financial crisis, but have had limited success so far.

The government last week won passage of a Y5,000bn stimulus package, which it rammed through the Diet following months of wrangling with the opposition.

The Bank of Japan has been buying commercial paper and corporate bonds but growth in bank lending slowed in February, for the second month.

January's deficit was the biggest since the government started compiling comparable data in 1985.


Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009

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3/09/2009 08:02:00 AM 0 comments links to this post

 

ADB: Asset Prices May Have Fallen $50 Trn

by Dollars and Sense

From The Financial Times:

Plunging assets cost $50,000bn
By Raphael Minder in Hong Kong and Alan Beattie in Washington
Financial Times
Published: March 8 2009 18:43 | Last updated: March 8 2009 23:31

Falls in the value of financial assets worldwide might have reached more than $50,000bn, equivalent to a year’s global economic output, the Asian Development Bank will warn on Monday.

Asia has been hit disproportionately hard, the bank will say, in a report that warns of many Asian stimulus plans lagging behind those of the leading global economies.

Separately, the World Bank said on Sunday that developing countries faced a financing gap of between $270bn and $700bn a year as capital flows dried up, with only a quarter of vulnerable countries able to cushion the blow of the economic downturn.

The ADB report estimates capital losses last year in Asia, excluding Japan, at $9,625bn, or 109 per cent of gross domestic product, compared with a global average of 80-85 per cent of GDP. For Latin America, the study estimates 2008 losses at $2,119bn, or 57 per cent of GDP.

"Even as Asia and Latin America have diversified their investment and trading partners, the effect of the slowdown on exports, finance and investment is earthshaking," the report warns.

The ADB’s estimates take into account falling stock market valuations and losses in the value of bonds supported by mortgages and other assets, though not financial derivatives. About a fifth of the losses in dollar terms arise from the depreciation of many currencies against the US dollar.

The World Bank report said $2,500bn-$3,000bn in public and private debt in emerging markets needed to be rolled over in 2009, most of it denominated in foreign currencies. This would put pressure on developing country governments, many of which had inadequate reserves to help their banks and companies refinance, the bank said.

Although the bank itself and other official institutions such as the International Monetary Fund have been increasing their lending, even at the lower end of the $270bn--$700bn range "existing resources of international financial institutions would appear inadequate to meet financing needs this year", it said.

The ADB study, to be presented on Monday by Haruhiko Kuroda, president, was commissioned from Centennial Group, a consultancy company.

Mr Kuroda says: "I am afraid things may get worse before they get better. However, I remain confident that Asia will be one of the first regions to emerge from it, and it will emerge stronger than ever before."
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009

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3/09/2009 07:56:00 AM 1 comments links to this post

Sunday, March 08, 2009

 

TDCotE (viii): The Use and Abuse of Trust

by Dollars and Sense

The Dull Compulsion of the Economic (viii)

A series of blog postings by D&S collective member Larry Peterson

Links:


(1) Scientists think sea level rise from global warming may be far greater than previously thought.

(2) On the economics profession's adamant refusal to seriously engage with the crisis.

(3) Yves Smith eviscerates former Fed governor Alan Blinder's arguments against nationalization of the banks.

(4) How could the brutal job losses shape the future economy? Perhaps should be read in conjunction with this 2005 piece where manufacturing is concerned.

(5) Nice piece on CDSs and AIG's collapse. Reminds one of the staggering sums involved.

(6) Private Equity meltdown to turn into "the greatest transfer of ownership from equity owners to creditors in history?"

(7) Will stimulus packages reverse green gains?

(8) Another relatively recent (December) thought-provoking piece on the crisis, by David McNally

(9) Michael Mandel on something of relevance to the last link, the striking developments in the relation of financial to nonfinancial profits in the economy over the last few years.

(10) A bank run on a country: the UK.

(11) Odds are very much against self employment as a means to escape the crisis.

Commentary
The Use and Abuse of Trust

Last week I wrote a piece about the tendency of economists to speak of the crisis in overly psychological terms, or in a manner that suggests that the crisis is (still) primarily about the confidence of consumers, investors and employers. Accordingly, the implication seems to be that the economy is basically sound at best, once we--somehow--strip even historically high levels of abuse out of it, or that it needs perhaps a serious overhaul at worst, but that in all cases we cannot even think about the establishment of a fundamentally alternative economic system.

This week I saw yet another Nobel-laureate economist weigh in along these lines. But Amartya Sen, in a piece in the New York Review of Books, seems to attempt to finesse this problematic out of existence altogether.

Sen distinguishes himself by stating that looking at the present crisis as one peculiar to capitalism is misleading: capitalism and markets have always relied on independent legal, cultural and ideological supports, and, in this sense, to try to isolate "capitalism" out of the mix, especially in the context of today's hyper-complex societies, is bound to lead to confusion, particularly of an historical sort:

Underlying this issue is a more basic question: whether capitalism is a term that is of particular use today. The idea of capitalism did in fact have an important role historically, but by now that usefulness may well be fairly exhausted.


Sen then goes on to show how Adam Smith had a far more nuanced view of the role of the market mechanism even in the society of his time, in which markets played a far lesser role than they do today, and suggests that, precisely because of Smith's extraordinary institutional sensitivity, it behooves us to look to Smith in an attempt to rehabilitate our appreciation for the proper role of markets in society. But then he begins, to me, anyway, a very strange meditation.

First he notes, once again, that capitalism did not emerge until new systems of law and so on, which solidified notions of private property, allowed for economic growth and capital accumulation. And he says, "Profit-oriented capitalism has always drawn upon support from other institutional values." But then he shifts gears:

The moral and legal obligations and responsibilities associated with transactions have in recent years become much harder to trace, thanks to the rapid development of secondary markets involving derivatives and other financial instruments. A subprime lender who misleads a borrower into taking unwise risks can now pass off the financial assets to third parties—-who are remote from the original transaction. Accountability has been badly undermined, and the need for supervision and regulation has become much stronger.


Moreover,

The insufficient regulation of financial activities has implications not only for illegitimate practices, but also for a tendency toward overspeculation that, as Adam Smith argued, tends to grip many human beings in their breathless search for profits. Smith called the promoters of excessive risk in search of profits "prodigals and projectors"--which is quite a good description of issuers of subprime mortgages over the past few years.


So, even if you accept that the fundamental problematic surrounding the present crisis has more to do with some sort of unchanging psychology of investors (the tendency to get carried away with temptation of excess profits) than the real economic conditions under which investments are made (and which invariably appear in and influence relations between classes), there is a question here. Why was it that the institutional supports that allowed for the spectacular growth of postwar capitalism became so quickly and thoroughly undone from the 'seventies on? He says, as we have seen, that capitalism has always relied on institutional support from non-market entities and structures, but he fails to explain the extraordinary turn away from such entities and structures during the deregulatory period that followed and went more-or-less unchallenged until last year. So rather than explaining this development, he simply describes it:

And yet the supervisory role of government in the United States in particular has been, over the same period, sharply curtailed, fed by an increasing belief in the self-regulatory nature of the market economy. Precisely as the need for state surveillance grew, the needed supervision shrank. There was, as a result, a disaster waiting to happen, which did eventually happen last year, and this has certainly contributed a great deal to the financial crisis that is plaguing the world today.


But then he makes yet another transition:

The present economic crisis is partly generated by a huge overestimation of the wisdom of market processes, and the crisis is now being exacerbated by anxiety and lack of trust in the financial market and in businesses in general--responses that have been evident in the market reactions to the sequence of stimulus plans, including the $787 billion plan signed into law in February by the new Obama administration.


Here Sen touches upon something that has really been making the rounds in the financial press these days, namely, the role of trust in market interactions and in capitalist societies. Most commentators I have seen tend to focus, again, on the role of investors in this vein, in speaking of the present crisis. So, to explain things like the pronounced lack of willingness of banks to lend, or of investors to buy into government-sponsored bailout programs, writers focus on the idea that, having been burned so badly already, such people are naturally extremely reluctant to put more money down. But such a situation then leads, inexorably, to further contractions of economic activity. Investors know this. And governments are going to great lengths to make money available to combat this. But takers have been few. So the reason must be an essentially irrational lack of trust. Sen doesn't actually say this, but I sense in the progression of his argument that this is a key assumption. Sen, like Alan Blinder (see link 3 above), seems to believe that once we sober up, we can, with the aid of governments, sort the mess out and live happily ever after. And despite the huge damage done to the economy, we need more confidence in our leaders, and, presumably, in ourselves, to emerge from the mess.

But the problem here is that Sen looks at trust in exactly the same way he does all the other psychological propensities that influence market behavior: as relatively unchanging constants in stable equations. But the type of trust engendered in the lead up to the crisis was a wholly peculiar one, which was influenced by all sorts of specific factors, many--perhaps to a peculiar degree--of which reflected intensified class dynamics. So, in the period before the crisis in the US, virtually no-one was prepared to imagine that the entire system could melt down with the speed it did. But many noted that the underlying dynamic, of hyper-consumption (as Stephen Roach has noted, US consumption still amounts to some 70% of the economy, down only a percentage point or two from the height of the bubble) aided by copious amounts of credit, but unaccompanied by rises in savings, or wages that came even close to tracking key outlays like those involving education, healthcare and pensions (not to mention lodging or home-finance, which is another story) that were rising out of sight, was dangerously unsustainable. But everyone trusted that, at the end of the day, someone else would take the fall if things fell apart. And this kind of thinking was encouraged by the incentive structures that proliferated from a governmental/business complex that was noteworthy for its venality and conspicuous corruption. And this, almost certainly, had much to do with the kind of degradation of social feeling that was a factor behind, and consequence of wider deregulatory dynamic. "Trust", under such conditions, far from being the strangely lacking factor behind a partially inexplicable collapse of the financial system, should perhaps be viewed, in the highly skewed from it took on as a result of the severely distorted economic conditions that came to become prevalent in the final years of neoliberalism and deregulation, the Bush years, as a key occasioning cause of it.

After such a denouement, it's hardly surprising that "trust" is noticibly lacking; but it's even more unsettling to think that the authorities (many of whom, as we all know too well, like Summers, Geithner et al, were instrumental in conditioning us in the new variant of "trust") want to revive it.

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3/08/2009 12:26:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

Saturday, March 07, 2009

 

London G20 Protest: Biggest Since Iraq War?

by Dollars and Sense

From Sunday's (it's still Saturday EST) Observer:

The voices in G20's chorus of protest

A mass demonstration ahead of the London G20 summit is set to attract a huge mix of different interest groups as a new coalition, Put People First, takes shape. Ed Vulliamy and Richard Rogers report

Ed Vulliamy and Richard Rogers
The Observer, Sunday 8 March 2009


The G20 summit of industrialised nations in London next month will be marked by one of the biggest demonstrations since a million people marched against war in Iraq in 2003.

On that Saturday, the issue was simple. This time the protest--although it draws on equally diverse social and political quarters--is a complex weave of movements and priorities united by one emotion: a disgust at the latest incarnation of capitalism that demands a different way of organising the economy of the planet.

To say that the protests will invoke the causes of social justice, the environment and fair trade would be to put it too simply, so we have published brief statements by some of the prime movers about why they will be taking to the streets.

Some preach the message of Jesus, while others urge outright revolution and much in between, forming perhaps the widest coalition of pressure groups ever assembled in Britain. And there will be the thousands of normal people angry at the way politicians and their friends in the banks, thinktanks and corridors of power are mismanaging our lives.

Apart from the main demonstration on Saturday 28 March, a flurry of further protests is envisaged, including Financial Fools Day, a blockade of financial institutions to prevent people from getting to work on 1 April. While trade unions will be aware that the protest comes close to the 25th anniversary of the Eighties miners' strike, a group called G20 Meltdown will stage carnivalesque parades, one of which will "honour the 360th full circle anniversary of the Diggers" - Civil War revolutionaries.

Read the rest of the article

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3/07/2009 08:26:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

FDIC Bill Attempt To Bypass TARP battle

by Dollars and Sense

From The Wall Street Journal:

MARCH 7, 2009

FDIC Bill Dodges a New TARP Fight

Wall Street Journal
By DAMIAN PALETTA


WASHINGTON A three-page bill designed to bolster the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. could let the Obama administration sidestep a huge political problem: securing more financial firepower without opening a debate over the Troubled Asset Relief Program.

The legislation, introduced late Thursday by Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd, would temporarily allow the FDIC to borrow $500 billion to replenish the fund it uses to guarantee bank deposits, if the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department concur. Those funds would be distinct from the contentious $700 billion financial-sector bailout, which lawmakers are loathe to expand.

The FDIC can presently only borrow $30 billion from Treasury. The bill would permanently raise that level to $100 billion, which the FDIC could tap without prior approval from the Fed and Treasury.

Mr. Dodd, a Connecticut Democrat, already has four Republican co-sponsors for the bill and it could quickly gain momentum, in part because of strong backing by community bankers.

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3/07/2009 02:55:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

January Consumer Borrowing Rises

by Dollars and Sense

From The International Herald Tribune:

Borrowing in U.S. rises unexpectedly

The Associated Press
Friday, March 6, 2009

WASHINGTON: U.S. consumer borrowing rose unexpectedly in January after three months of declines, but the small increase did not shake economists' views that borrowing will remain weak this year as mass layoffs persist amid the recession.

The Federal Reserve said Friday that borrowing increased at an annual rate of $1.76 billion in the first month of the year. Economists expected borrowing to decline at a rate of $5 billion.

The small gain came mainly from the category that includes credit cards, which rose at a 1.2 percent rate in January after dropping 9.5 percent in December. The category that covers auto loans rose 0.6 percent after a smaller 0.1 percent rise in December.

The increases were attributed to the stronger performance of retail sales which posted a 1 percent rise in January, the best showing in 14 months. While that increase was unexpected, analysts noted that it was still modest and followed a six-month decline.

Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity, and borrowing fell at an annual rate of $7.48 billion in December after a $9.13 billion drop in November. The December figure was slightly larger than previously reported while the November number was smaller.

But the economy, especially the labor market, appeared to darken last month. The government reported Friday that the unemployment rate surged to a 25-year high of 8.1 percent in February as employers slashed another 651,000 jobs. Since the recession began in December 2007, the economy has lost a net total of 4.4 million jobs, with more than half coming in the past four months.

Americans, worried about the possibility that they could be laid off, have cut back on their spending and reduced borrowing. Many are trying to rebuild their savings to help cope with a recession that is already the longest in more than a quarter-century.

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3/07/2009 02:49:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

Scargill: We Had Deal with Thatcher

by Dollars and Sense

From The Guardian:

We could surrender - or stand and fight'

It has been 25 years since the miners' strike began - now, for the first time, the then president of the NUM writes his account of the most divisive and bitter industrial dispute in living memory

Arthur Scargill
The Guardian, Saturday 7 March 2009


Twenty-five years ago, the Tory government led by Margaret Thatcher declared war on the National Union of Mineworkers. The Tories had been preparing for a showdown with the NUM since before the 1979 general election. They could not forget the victorious miners' strikes of 1972 and 1974, the second of which had brought down the Tory government in a general election.

But the NUM's historic battle did not begin in March 1984, as so many pundits claim. The seeds of the dispute had been sown long before. A pit closure plan in 1981 resulted in miners, including miners in Nottinghamshire, taking unofficial strike action (without a ballot) and forcing Thatcher into a U-turn, or in reality a body swerve.

At that time, Britain's coal industry was the most efficient and technologically advanced in the world, a result of a tripartite agreement, the Plan For Coal, signed by a Labour government, the National Coal Board (NCB) and the mining trade unions in 1974, and endorsed by Thatcher in 1981. And yet, shortly after I became national president of the NUM in 1982 I was sent anonymously a copy of a secret plan prepared by NCB chiefs earmarking 95 pits for closure, with the loss of 100,000 miners' jobs. This plan had been prepared on government instructions following the miners' successful unofficial strike in 1981.

I took this document to the union's National Executive Committee (NEC)--its contents were not only denied by government and NCB chiefs, but were disbelieved by militant NUM leaders who had been assured that their pits had long-term futures. However, the exposed revelations struck a chord among our members throughout Britain's coalfields where colliery managers - clearly acting on instructions from above--had already begun unilaterally changing agreed working practices, affecting shift patterns and supplementary payments.

It became clear that the union would have to take action, but of a type that would win maximum support and have a unifying effect. The NEC accepted a report from me recommending that we call a special national delegate conference, and link our opposition to the pit closure plan with a demand that the coal board negotiate the union's wage claim. The NEC agreed, and the special conference was held on 21 October 1983. Delegates from all NUM areas were given a detailed report so that they could vote on what action--if any--should be taken. Following a full debate, they agreed to call a national overtime ban from 1 November--until such time as the NCB withdrew its closure plan and agreed to negotiate an increase in miners' wages with the NUM.

Over the next four months, the overtime ban had an extraordinary impact. It succeeded in reducing coal output by 30%, or 12m tonnes, thus cutting national coal stocks to about the same level as they had been during the miners' unofficial strike in 1981.

Then, on 1 March 1984, acting I believe on national instruction, NCB directors in four areas announced the immediate closure of five pits: Cortonwood and Bullcliffe Wood in Yorkshire, Herrington in Durham, Snowdown in Kent and Polmaise in Scotland.

Coalfield reaction was electrifying. On Saturday 3 March, accompanied by the NUM Yorkshire president, Jack Taylor, I spoke at a packed meeting in South Yorkshire initially organised to discuss various issues that had already brought seven Yorkshire pits out on strike. I knew we had to do everything possible to persuade our members to direct their rage in a united way at the pit closure plan and its threat to butcher our industry.

On Sunday evening Taylor and I attended a Yorkshire Brass Band Festival in Sheffield city hall. By then I had consulted my fellow national officials, the vice-president, Michael McGahey, and the national secretary, Peter Heathfield.

It was essential to present a united response to the NCB and we agreed that, if the coal board planned to force pit closures on an area by area basis, then we must respond at least initially on that same basis. The NUM's rules permitted areas to take official strike action if authorised by our national executive committee in accordance with Rule 41. If the NEC gave Scotland and Yorkshire authorisation under this rule, it could galvanise other areas to seek similar support for action against closures.

During an interval in the concert, I used the back of a programme to draft a strike resolution which I asked Taylor to present the following morning to the Yorkshire area council meeting. I told him that McGahey would be doing the same thing at the same time in Scotland.

On 6 March, at a consultative meeting at NCB London headquarters, the coal board chairman, Ian MacGregor, not only confirmed what we had been expecting, but announced that in addition to the five pits already earmarked for immediate closure, a further 20 would be closed during the coming year, with the loss of more than 20,000 jobs. This, he said, was being done to take four million tonnes of "unwanted" capacity out of the industry, and bring supply into line with demand.

Read the rest of the piece

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3/07/2009 02:37:00 PM 1 comments links to this post

 

UK Government Takes over Lloyd's

by Dollars and Sense

From The Guardian:


Government takes over Lloyds

Taxpayer will own up to 77% of banking group after disastrous merger with HBOS as pressure grows on board to resign

guardian.co.uk, Saturday 7 March 2009 10.33 GM
Jill Treanor , Nick Mathiason and agencies


The government today confirmed it will take majority control of Lloyds Banking Group, with the taxpayer owning 65% of the voting shares in return for insuring 260bn pounds the group's toxic assets.

After days of detailed negotiations the terms of the takeover were announced by the Treasury, with Lloyds making a commitment to lend at least 28bn pounds over the next few years.

The government is to insure the bank's riskiest loans and in return the taxpayer will up its ownership of the bank from 43% to 65%--rising to 77% when non-voting shares are included.

Alongside taking extra shares and obtaining the commitment to lend to businesses and individuals, the Treasury will upgrade £4bn of the non-voting shares it already holds.

The government's fee for limiting Lloyds' losses from 260bn pounds of potentially bad assets totals £15.6bn. Under the insurance scheme, Lloyds will take the first hit of up to 25bn pounds on toxic assets before the taxpayer steps in.

The new ordinary shares in the bank will be offered to existing private shareholders first, with the government committing to buy whatever is left.

Stephen Timms, the chief secretary to the Treasury, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "I think in due course this new Lloyds...is going to be a strong and successful bank, and the arrangements that we have been able to facilitate I think will ensure that this is going to be the case."

Asked about speculation that the taxpayer could lose up to £100bn on the deal, Timms replied: "Precedents would suggest that the loss would be a great deal less than that, but as I said we just don't know."

Timms rejected suggestions that the prime minister had "destroyed a great bank" by pushing Lloyds to take over HBOS as it neared collapse.

Eric Daniels, the group chief executive for Lloyds Banking Group, said: "Participating in the government's asset protection scheme substantially reduces the risk profile of the group's balance sheet.

Read the rest of the article

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3/07/2009 02:24:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

Friday, March 06, 2009

 

IMF Blames Crisis On Lack of Regulation

by Dollars and Sense

From the International Monetary Fund, you know, the people who shoved unfettered global profit-seeking down the throats of impoverished countries for decades, comes this fabulous insight: inadequate regulation was the major cause of the current financial crisis.

You can read about it in the Economist, or you can read Dollars & Sense's own Dr. Dollar (Arthur MacEwan) in a recent column.

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3/06/2009 03:09:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

Nation Institute Panel on Crisis Tonight in NYC

by Dollars and Sense

Meltdown: The Economic Collapse and a People's Plan for Recovery
A Free Panel Discussion

Join Joseph Stiglitz, Barbara Ehrenreich, Bill Fletcher, Jr., Christopher Hayes and Jeff Madrick as they discuss the financial collapse. If you can't make the event, watch the live videostream or chime in on Twitter, where you can leave questions or comments.

March 6 at 8 p.m. at the New York Society for Ethical Culture. Doors open at 7.15 p.m. FREE OF CHARGE.

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3/06/2009 03:08:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

Job Bytes, March 6 (Dean Baker)

by Dollars and Sense

Hat-tip to reader Panayiotis M. for reminding us about Dean Baker's weekly employment notes, available here (and you can subscribe). Here is this week's, in full:

Unemployment Jumps to 8.1 Percent as Job Loss Accelerates

By Dean Baker | March 6, 2009

This report shows that recent economic projections were overly optimistic.

The February employment report showed the labor market deteriorating at an even faster rate, with the unemployment rate rising from 7.6 percent to 8.1 in February. The economy lost 651,000 jobs in the month, but job loss for the prior two months was revised up as well. Job loss for the last three months is now reported at 2,013,000, an average of 671,000 per month.

Job loss continues to be disproportionately in construction and manufacturing. Construction lost 104,000 jobs in February; it has lost 512,000 jobs since September, 7.2 percent of employment in the sector. Employment in the non-residential sector is falling almost as rapidly as in the residential sector.

Manufacturing lost 168,000 jobs in February, bringing job loss in the sector to 845,000 since September, a decline of 6.3 percent. Hours per worker have also been reduced; the index of aggregate hours is down 9.6 percent since September. All sectors of manufacturing have been hit hard, but the auto sector has seen the sharpest decline, with employment down by 128,600, or 15.3 percent, since September. The hours index is down by 21.9 percent over this period.

Retail lost 39,500 jobs, bringing its loss since September to 318,300. Employment in auto dealers has been holding up in spite of the plunge in sales. Employment is down by only 167,000, or 13.4 percent, since the pre-recession peak, even though sales are down more than 30 percent. In the same vein, employment in real estate is down by just 70,000, or 4.7 percent, even though sales are down by 40 percent. In both cases, workers are paid largely on commission and therefore have likely seen their wages slashed even though they still have their jobs.

Employment in trucking fell by 33,400 in February. It is down by 88,000 since October, a drop of 6.5 percent. This reflects the huge decline in goods being shipped. The employment services sector lost 87,500 in February. As a result of a sharp downward revision to prior data, this sector reportedly lost 402,000 jobs, 13.2 percent of employment, since September.

The rise in the unemployment rate was accompanied by a 0.2 percent drop in the employment rate. The 3.1 percentage point drop in the employment rate already exceeds the decline in any downturn since 1948. Men have been disproportionately hit by the downturn, with their unemployment rate rising by 3.8 percentage points over the last year to 8.1 percent. The unemployment rate for women rose by 2.4 percentage points to 6.7 percent. This gap is not surprising with construction and manufacturing as the big job losers.

Black men saw a 6.9 percentage point jump in their unemployment rate over the last year to 14.9 percent. The employment rate for black teens dropped to 17.0 percent, the lowest level on record. The unemployment rate for Hispanics hit 10.9 percent, up 1.2 percentage points from January and 4.6 percentage points from last February.

Unemployment has risen sharply for workers at all education levels. The 12.6 percent rate for workers without a high school degree is 5.2 percentage points above the year ago level. The 4.1 unemployment rate for college grads is nearly double the 2.1 percent rate of last February, and 0.7 percentage points higher than the previous high in 1992 when this series was first published.

The number of people involuntarily employed part-time rose by 838,000 in February and is now 3,753,000 above its year ago level. This is consistent with the sharp decline in hours in the establishment survey.

The one piece of somewhat good news in this report is that wages are continuing to rise, with nominal wages rising at 3.5 percent annual rate over the quarter. However, everything else in this report is extremely bad. The economy is in a free fall with no obvious brakes in place. The recent forecasts, used in analyzing the stimulus and the budget, which projected 8.5 percent unemployment for the 4th quarter, now look impossibly optimistic. The unemployment rate is likely to hit 8.5 percent by March and will almost certainly cross 9.0 percent by the early summer. Without substantial additional stimulus, it could cross 10.0 percent by year-end.
Dean Baker is the Co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research. CEPR's Jobs Byte is published each month upon release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment report. For more information or to subscribe by fax or email contact CEPR at 202-293-5380 ext. 102, or chinku [at] cepr [dot] net.

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3/06/2009 02:46:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

Confusion, Tunneling, and Looting

by Dollars and Sense

Interesting post from the blog Baseline Scenario.

Emerging market crises are marked by an increase in tunneling—i.e., borderline legal/illegal smuggling of value out of businesses. As time horizons become shorter, employees have less incentive to protect shareholder value and are more inclined to help out friends or prepare a soft exit for themselves.

Boris Fyodorov, the late Russian Minister of Finance who struggled for many years against corruption and the abuse of authority, could be blunt. Confusion helps the powerful, he argued. When there are complicated government bailout schemes, multiple exchange rates, or high inflation, it is very hard to keep track of market prices and to protect the value of firms. The result, if taken to an extreme, is looting: the collapse of banks, industrial firms, and other entities because the insiders take the money (or other valuables) and run.

This is the prospect now faced by the United States.

Treasury has made it clear that they will proceed with a "mix-and-match" strategy, as advertized. And people close to the Administration tell me things along the lines of "it will be messy" and "there is no alternative." The people involved are convinced—and hold this almost as an unshakeable ideology—that this is the only way to bring private capital into banks.

Read the rest of the post.

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3/06/2009 02:33:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

Blue-Green Insurgency

by Dollars and Sense

This is by Carl Davidson, at the excellent website SolidarityEconomy.net.

Blue-Green Insurgency Gets Fired Up at the DC Green Jobs Conference

By Carl Davidson
Beaver County Blue

When you walk into a large Washington, DC hotel lobby and find it teeming with thousands of smiling, buzzing people—half in labor union jackets and ball caps, the other half dressed in 30-something hip-hop causal—you know some special is happening.

This was the lively, energized scene for three cold wintry days this Feb 4-6 at the Marriott Wardman Park Hotel, as nearly 3000 activists and organizers gathers for the "Good Jobs, Green Jobs" National Conference. The gathering was convened by more than 100 organizations, representing every major trade union and every major environmental group in the country, among others.

It's called the "blue-green alliance," the core of which is the United Steel Workers and the Sierra Club, which jointly launched the "Green Jobs" movement nationally at a conference in Pittsburgh, PA a year ago. The turnout this year is triple in size and highly energized by both the victory of President Barack Obama and the looming onset of an economic crisis unmatched in scope since the Great Depression of the 1930s. In addition to the steelworkers, the building trades were well represented, and the green groups spanned a wide range of concerns, for toxics to energy to climate change. Also notable was the participation of a contingent of "high road" corporations rooted in the growing "green economy." Gamesa, a major Spanish firm specializing in wind turbines, and Piper Jaffray, a large paper company focused on recycled paper products, are two examples.

But a critical new dimension was added by Green For All, an organization rooted among inner city youth, and headed up by Van Jones. Jones is the author of "The Green Collar Economy" and an inspirational voice for a rising generation of multinational, multicultural insurgent youth.

Read the rest of the article.

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3/06/2009 02:17:00 PM 2 comments links to this post

 

Black Male Jobless Rate: 16.1% in February

by Dollars and Sense

From Bob Feldman; includes key excerpts from today's BLS report.

Black Male Worker Jobless Rate: 16.1 Percent In February

The official "not-seasonally adjusted" unemployment rate for Black male workers over 20 years of age in the United States increased from 15.8 percent to 16.1 percent between January 2009 and February 2009, while the "seasonally adjusted" unemployment rate for Black male workers increased from 14.1 percent to 14.9 percent, according to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t02.htm ) . The "not-seasonally adjusted" jobless rate for all Black workers over 20 years of age increased from 13.4 percent to 13.8 percent during this same period, while the "seasonally adjusted" jobless rate for all Black workers increased to 13.4 percent.

For all U.S. workers, the "not-seasonally adjusted" jobless rate jumped from 8.5 percent to 8.9 percent between January 2009 and February 2009, while the "seasonally adjusted" jobless rate for all U.S. workers increased to 8.1 percent. The "not-seasonally adjusted" unemployment rate for white male workers also increased from 8.3 percent to 9 percent between January 2009 and February 2009. The "not-seasonally adjusted" jobless rate for Hispanic or Latino male workers increased from 11 percent to 12.1 percent between January 2009 and February 2009.

Between January 2009 and February 2009, the "seasonally adjusted" jobless rate for Black youth between 16 and 19 years-of-age increased from 36.5 percent to 38.8 percent, while the "seasonally adjusted" jobless rate for white youth between 16 and 19 years-of-age was 19.1 percent.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' March 6, 2009 press release:

"The number of unemployed persons increased by 851,000 to 12.5 million in February...

"Among the unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs increased by 716,000 to 7.7 million in February...

"The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by 270,000 to 2.9 million in February...

"In February, the number of persons who worked part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) rose by 787,000, reaching 8.6 million...This category includes persons who would like to work full time but were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find full-time jobs...

"There were 731,000 discouraged workers in February, up by 335,000 from a year earlier. Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them...

"Total nonfarm payroll employment dropped by 651,000 in February...

"Employment in professional and business services fell by 180,000 in

February. The temporary help industry lost 78,000 jobs over the month....In February, job declines also occurred in services to buildings and dwellings (-17,000), architectural and engineering services (-16,000), and business support services (-12,000).

"Widespread job losses continued in manufacturing in February (-168,000).

The majority of the decline occurred in durable goods industries (-132,000), with the largest decreases in fabricated metal products (-28,000) and machinery (-25,000). Employment in nondurable goods manufacturing declined by 36,000 over the month.

"The construction industry lost 104,000 jobs in February...

"Employment in truck transportation declined by 33,000 in February...The information industry continued to lose jobs (-15,000)...


"Employment in financial activities continued to decline in February
(-44,000).... In February, job losses occurred in real estate (-11,000); credit intermediation (-11,000); and securities, commodity contracts, and investments (-8,000).

"Retail trade employment fell by 40,000 over the month...In February, employment decreased in automobile dealerships (-9,000), sporting goods (-9,000), furniture and homefurnishing stores (-8,000), and building material and garden supply stores (-7,000). Employment in wholesale trade fell by 37,000 over the month, with nearly all of the decline occurring in durable goods.

"Employment in leisure and hospitality continued to trend down over the month (-33,000), with about half of the decrease in the accommodation industry (-18,000)..."

--b.f.

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3/06/2009 01:19:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

Feb. Unemployment tops 8%...

by Dollars and Sense

...and December's figure revised, making it the worst reading since 1949. From Reuters:

U.S. February payrolls fall 651,000; jobless rate 8.1 percentFri Mar 6, 2009 8:48am EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) U.S. employers axed 651,000 jobs in February, pushing the unemployment rate to its highest in 25 years, as companies buckled under the strain of a recession that is showing no signs of ending, according to a government report.

While that figure was near economists' expectations for a 648,000 drop in non-farm payrolls, January and December job losses were revised sharply higher.

The Labor Department on Friday said the unemployment rate surged to 8.1 percent in February, the highest level since December 1983. That was above market forecasts for a rise to 7.9 from January's 7.6 percent.

January's job cuts were revised to show a steep decline of 655,000, while December's payrolls losses were adjusted to 681,000, the deepest since October 1949. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the economy has purged 4.4 million jobs, with more than half occurring in the last 4 months.

Job losses in February were broad based, with only government, education and health services adding jobs.

"Since the recession began, the rise in unemployment has been concentrated among people who lost jobs, as opposed to job leavers or people joining the labor force," said Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Keith Hall

The manufacturing sector shed 168,000 jobs in February, after eliminating 257,000 positions the prior month. Construction industries bled 104,000 jobs in February after losing 118,000 in January. The service-providing industry slashed 375,000 positions after shedding 276,000 in January.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Neil Stempleman)

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3/06/2009 08:54:00 AM 1 comments links to this post

Thursday, March 05, 2009

 

Can My Boss Do That?

by Dollars and Sense

We received a press release from the good folks at Interfaith Worker Justice in Chicago. They had a conference call on this today that we weren't able to listen in on, but it sounds like a really great project. For more info contact: Cynthia Brooke (773) 728-8400, ext. 40; cbrooke--at--iwj .org. Or just visit the site.

Can My Boss Do That?
New website with vital information on rights and protections during a job loss
www.CanMyBossDoThat.com responds to overwhelming need.

The numbers are staggering: 3.6 million jobs lost between December 2007 and January 2009. The February unemployment figures, due out this week, will continue to be grim. When workers face job loss, they often don't know where to turn for answers. They may be improperly denied their last paycheck, money due when their plant closes, or told by their employer that they cannot collect unemployment benefits.

Interfaith Worker Justice (IWJ) has created a website, Can My Boss Do That? (www.CanMyBossDoThat.com), which enables workers to understand their rights and protections and advocate for themselves. It offers state-specific information geared to help real life situations:

  • A teacher is trying to find out if her student can collect unemployment after quitting because she was groped by her boss.

  • An upscale grocery store closes, with no notice. Workers are told to take their final pay in food and wine.

  • A worker doesn't file for unemployment after his boss tells him that he isn't eligible because he's a part-time worker. He regularly worked 35 hours a week and was eligible.

"The need for clear, usable information for people who are facing unemployment is overwhelming," said Anne Janks, worker advocate and website creator. "We're seeing more bosses cutting corners and breaking employment laws. This website is one way workers can make sure they understand how best to protect themselves."

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3/05/2009 05:12:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

Unemployment (Including Closures and Layoffs)

by Dollars and Sense

Two more unemployment items:

  • The unemployment rate in our fair commonwealth, Massachusetts, went over 7% for the first time in over 15 years. The Boston Globe reported that the rate is now 7.4%. From the article:
    The Massachusetts unemployment rate in January jumped above 7 percent for the first time in nearly 16 years as the state's employers slashed nearly 5,000 jobs, the state Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development reported today.

    The state's jobless rate hit 7.4 percent in January, up from a revised 6.4 percent in December. It's the highest rate since June 1993, when Massachusetts was recovering from the deep recession of the late 1980s and early 1990s. There are now more than 250,000 unemployed in Massachusetts, up by nearly 100,000, or about 60 percent, from a year ago.

    The national unemployment rate was 7.6 percent in January. The US Labor Department reports February employment statistics tomorrow. Economists forecast that the national jobless rate rose to about 8 percent last month as employers cut hundreds of thousand more jobs.

    In Massachusetts, employers cut jobs for the eighth consecutive month. The state has lost about 73,000 jobs over the past year, or about 2 percent of total employment.

    Read the full article.


  • We've been posting the weekly unemployment report from Mark Heschmeyer of the CoStar Group. This is from his report for March 1-7:

    Biggest Job Cuts May Have Peaked

    Companies are now settling in to what many believe will be a long recession. More than 60% of companies say that they believe their business results will not hit bottom until the end of 2009 or into 2010, according to Watson Wyatt's most recent human resource survey.

    In response, many employers made significant changes to their HR programs between October and February, including layoffs, salary and hiring freezes and resetting merit increase budgets for the upcoming year.

    However, our results show that many companies are putting the drastic cuts behind them and are now looking to make smaller cost-cutting changes moving forward.

    Read the rest of the report.


  • If weekly news of unemployment isn't frequent enough for you, check out Layoff Daily. Hat-tip to Bob F. for letting us know about this cheery site. Note that you can get the Layoff Daily iPhone App at the iTunes Store for just $1.99 (though I really wonder who would do so, and why).

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3/05/2009 04:53:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

Citi and GM Deathwatch

by Dollars and Sense

Citibank has now joined the ranks of the penny stocks. In 2006 the stock was trading at $55.70 and the company had a market capitalization of $277.2 billion. Today, the stock is trading at under $1 per share and the market cap is $5 billion. However, the US government has already lent the company $45 billion, so the actual value of the company is probably far less (i.e. negative).

Bank of America isn't doing much better.

On the auto front, auditors for GM are debating whether to continue to portray the carmaker as a "going concern." This determination will factor heavily in the company's ability to access more loans from the government or whether it will be headed straight for bankruptcy. GM stock is trading just below a lofty $2 mark.

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3/05/2009 03:36:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

Wednesday, March 04, 2009

 

Two Items on the Employee Free Choice Act

by Dollars and Sense

Economist Dani Rodrik had this nice post on his blog last week:
What do Philippe Aghion and Dean Baker have in common?

Jeff Sachs and Bob Pollin? Peter Temin and Mark Thoma? Brad De Long and James Galbraith? Ken Arrow and Bob Solow (besides the fact that they have both won the you-know-what)? Or for that matter, Jagdish Bhagwati and I?

We all support this.
You will notice that the link leads to a petition sponsored by the Economic Policy Institute of prominent economists in support of the Employee Free Choice Act, the legislation before Congress that promises to level the playing field somewhat for workers trying to organize unions. (Thanks to Dani for reminding us about Arrow and Solow winning on American Idol.)

And there's this new video from SEIU:



I love the bit about how EFCA will (horrors!) turn us into France or Germany. It reminds me of Mitt Romney's speech to the conservatives when he quit the presidential race and fretted that the liberals were going to turn the United States into "the France of the 21st century" (to which John Stewart responded: "Isn't France the France of the 21st century?").

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3/04/2009 02:42:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

WSJ and Hightower on Wall Street Compensation

by Dollars and Sense

The bonuses and compensation at Merrill Lynch are front-page news in today's Wall Street Journal; here's the teaser from their site:

Merrill's $10 Million Men

Top 10 Earners Made $209 Million in 2008 as Firm Foundered

As bad as 2008 was for Merrill Lynch & Co., it was very good for Andrea Orcel, the firm's top investment banker. Although Merrill's net loss ballooned to $27.6 billion last year, Mr. Orcel, 45 years old, was paid $33.8 million in cash and stock, just shy of his pay in 2007.

While Merrill staggered, 11 top executives were paid more than $10 million in cash and stock last year, say people familiar with the situation. An additional 149 received $3 million or more.

Here's the link, but it's a subscriber-only article.

Meanwhile, here's a piece by Jim Hightower on Wall Street compensation from his website:

EX-WALL STREET CEO'S STILL GETTING PERKS

By Jim Hightower | Tuesday, March 3, 2009

Once upon a time, not so long ago, Citigroup was a fairytale financial conglomerate that was the richest corporation in all the land.

But it turns out that Citigroup's magic kingdom was, like most Wall Street firms, built on fairy dust, and—poof!—the kingdom has vanished. Last year, the once mighty bank lost $18.7 billion dollars, fired 39,000 employees, and was reduced from a golden chariot to a pumpkin. It only survives today because of a $52 billion bailout from taxpayers.

And where are the executive alchemists who created the fairy dust to make Citigroup seem like so much more than it was? These royal princes of the kingdom, who were paid millions for their magical creations, all retired in riches, but you still might find some of them at the bank.

Take Charles Prince, who was CEO of Citigroup until retiring a year and a half ago—just as the fairy dust went poof. Prince Prince, who'd been paid $67 million for his first three years of overseeing the kingdom, was graced with a $10 million bonus in his last year, even though the empire was collapsing around him. But Prince wasn't sent away. He continues to enjoy a well-appointed office at the bank, an executive assistant, a limo, and a chauffeur.

Even though Citigroup is now on a financial death watch, several other of its former executives continue to draw millions of dollars in personal perks. Sandy Weill, for example, not only has kept an office, staff, and his limo since retiring three years ago, but he's also paid a consulting fee of $3,800 a day.

You'd hope that at least one of these guys would have the integrity to say, "You know, this is a ripoff, and I don't deserve it." Rather than wait for that magical moment, however, Congress should step up now and pull the plug on these pampered princes of greed.

"Bank executives might leave, but perks often linger," www.statesman.com, February 22, 2009.

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3/04/2009 12:47:00 PM 0 comments links to this post

 

File Under 'Have They No Shame?'

by Dollars and Sense

Two items from today's New York Times to file under "Have They No Shame?".

  • This gem about a company that does debt collection for dead people, i.e., calling up the next of kin to get them to pay their recently departed relatives' $500 Discover bill or whatever. What they don't tell them (unless asked) is that they are often under no obligation to pay. The company's staff are trained in grief counseling so that they can sound sympathetic and thereby maximize collection. It also helps to know the psychology of grief: people often feel better about paying that $500 Discover card bill to ensure Aunt Betty's eternal rest. Here's one tidbit, from a thank you note (!!) that one person sent to the company: "One widow wrote that a collector 'was so nice to me, even when I could only pay $5 a month a few times.' Saying that money was 'so tight' after her husband died, she added: 'It was very hard for me, and to get a job at my age. Thank you.'"

  • This one about a new company, PennyMac, that former Countrywide executives have formed. The company has been "buying up delinquent home mortgages that the government took over from other failed banks, sometimes for pennies on the dollar. They get a piece of what they can collect." The money quote:"'It has been very successful—very strong,' John Lawrence, the company's head of loan servicing, told Mr. Kurland one recent morning in a glass-walled boardroom here at PennyMac's spacious headquarters, o