Jobs and No Jobs in June of 2026, and Beyond

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ jobs and unemployment report for June showed a kind of tale of two cities. The unemployment rate fell a tenth of a percentage point to 4.2%. If this were a true indicator and this were all we had, we could celebrate. Anything around 4% seems close to real full employment.

But as is often the case, other numbers are not so positive, and some are downright scary. NJFAN’s Full Count shows that real unemployment was 10.1%; and even the official government rates for African Americans as a whole, African-American teens, and disabled workers were high at 6.6%, 26.8%, and 8.6%. If the economy were really booming, more people in these groups would be pulled into jobs.

Also, the government’s survey of non-farm employers showed that hiring is sagging, even after a couple of good months now and then. It is still a lowish-hire labor market. From December of 2024 through December of 2025, there were many negative months for hiring and the total job count. January and March of 2026 were a little better, but monthly additions have fallen since then. Total non-farm jobs rose by just 57,000 in June. Puny for a huge economy.

Also, official numbers and presentations do not give prominence to the fact that the labor force of people working or looking for work has been sinking. That means that job markets need to create fewer jobs to look good. And, last month, as the author of the site called ZeroHedge noted, the number of full-time workers fell by half a million. That’s a shocker and we should be watching to see if it is a long-term trend.

Negative indicators can be fashioned into a story of cultural gloom or doom, or they can be used to incentivize study of the facts and down-to-earth programs that create more good jobs. The negatives and their dramatization by commentators are especially notable in their impact on men, but they impact young women too. One story is that more young men have been dropping out of society and job markets and into dark psychic holes. Actually, the long-term decline in male labor force participation is partly due to the fact that more men are going to school, more young men (and women too) are having trouble finding work, and more men have retired. But according to Jeffrey A. Tucker, who has advised RFK, Jr. on medical policy, “a third of working-age men have slipped into a life of lethargy and nihilism.”  I have not read his book, so I do not know what his arguments are. I am guessing that you readers are the culprits. You liberals who have undermined the work ethic. And perhaps, really there is sometimes an element of irresponsibility and a false sense of privilege among some young men. But generally, in recent decades job markets have been sending out the message that you cannot create a comfortable life for yourself and your family. And in the last few years, we have had what even orthodox economists acknowledge are low-fire and low-hire labor markets. Not so many layoffs; not so many new jobs. That makes life hard for young men and women looking for their first real job.

There are many social and economic barriers to success. The 26.8% unemployment rate for African-American teens is real and it is horrendous. Are all these young people lying about having looked for a job? Doubt it. There are not enough jobs out there for young people who do not have superior skills and training, and especially if they are the wrong color. Average jobs that pay fairly well are rare today. For example, the manufacturing sector is small and it is not growing. The farming jobs that come with control, fulfillment, and decent pay are very few. Overall, average real pay has, over the last couple of decades, just crept back up to levels that were common in the 1970s. From the 1970s through the early 1990s, after-inflation pay sank for many groups. There has been some recovery. but still, there are so many lousy jobs.

And by the way, not all of those young people who are said by some commentators to be “disconnected” from the labor market are not disconnected from life, nor even always from work. Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank in St. Louis found that quite a few young non-workers are busy taking care of family members, sometimes looking for work, and sometimes doing informal income-generating jobs. Not all who cannot find good jobs sink into the abyss of self-pity and futility.

Always Look on the Bright Side

A surprise: real hourly earnings actually increased by .8% in June, after 11 months of declines or tiny increases. But in the long run, the history of remuneration hasn’t been very bright. Average wages are too low, and they have not risen much in recent years. Some things have turned up. According to an investment advisor at VettaFi, average real middle-class pay has increased a total of 12% over the last 20 years. That’s about half a percent a year.  Whoopee. But the VettaFi expert claims that for its middle class, real annual earnings in the last few years are still lower than they were in the late 60s and early 70s!

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Two takes on the debate about the long-term drop in labor force participation by young people:

Jeffrey A. Tucker, “Where Have the Men Gone,” 5/19/2026, ZeroHedge, originally from Epoch Times.

Lauren Kaori Gurley and Federica Cocco, “Why Young and Old Men Are Leaving the Labor Force at Record Rates,” Yahoo!Finance, originally from Washington Post, May 8, 2026.