Who Will Work in a Warming World?

“I remember that day. The temperature was about 115 degrees Fahrenheit. They fired me for giving my crew a break.” These are the words of 56-year-old Arizona farmworker Elizabeth Talamante. In 2024, Talamante was fired for giving her farm crew a break to cool down from the unbearable heat. “The bosses, the foreman, the last thing they want you to do is to stop working. It’s hot and they are inhumane.” Talamante’s story is a part of the United Farm Workers mini-documentary series highlighting farmworkers’ experiences with extreme temperatures and climate change. As the UFW emphasizes throughout the series, this experience is unfortunately all too common for farm-workers, and is only getting worse as extreme temperatures spike. Meanwhile, Talamante’s story barely received any news coverage outside one AZ Central article. Her story is just one of many that go unnoticed despite the dependence we have on farmers for our collective survival.

Extreme heat has been one of the most important themes for rallying workers against the climate crisis. Whether it is construction workers directly exposed to extreme temperatures or teachers whose school buildings get so hot that students and staff are unable to learn and teach, many workers are on the frontlines of global warming. Such exposure has seen the labor movement organize on a variety of levels to protect workers, whether it is campaigns to pass better heat protections on the state and federal level in the United States or “Heat Strikes” in the United Kingdom where workers refuse, en masse, to work past a temperature threshold.

The impacts of climate change on workers, especially outdoor workers, are having global consequences as a result. According to a March 2025 report by The Lancet, a record 639 billion work hours were lost around the world in 2024 because of heat exposure. In 2024, nearly twice as many work hours were lost compared to the 1990s average, leading to an estimated $1.09 trillion in economic losses—about 1% of the global economy. Extreme heat is much worse than just the loss of work or some percentage of GDP lost, however. Heat kills. In one study, the researchers estimated that roughly 489,000 heat-related deaths occur each year, with the majority happening in Asia and Europe.

The problem shows no signs of slowing down anytime soon as warming accelerates. Projections of extreme heat are hard to pin down, but the more we learn about how warming will impact the population the more dire it appears. According to a March 2026 article published in The Lancet, the world could see an additional 700,000 premature deaths a year just due to physical inactivity as a result of extreme heat. Deaths from increased physical inactivity, along with other consequences of warming, will largely be concentrated in the Global South, thereby exacerbating already existing inequities and power imbalances between and within countries.

These deaths, loss of working hours, and economic impacts come in a world of climate change that has only reached the still relatively “safe” temperature rise of 1.2 degrees Celsius in global heating since 1850. We are headed toward a much more deadly 3 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of the century. No one knows exactly what will happen if the world warms to 3 degrees or more, but it is a safe assumption that deaths from extreme heat will rise dramatically. One 2024 study published in The Lancet shows that heat-related mortality in Europe could triple by the end of the century if we hit the 3 degrees mark, while deaths in the United States could increase fivefold. Countries in the Global South are even more vulnerable. While these numbers are in the aggregate for the general population, outdoor workers, especially those in construction and agriculture, will make up a significant portion of future mortalities from climate change.

Thus far, a variety of solutions have been advocated for and implemented. Passing heat protection regulations are the most sought-after measures by politicians and labor organizations. So far, only seven states have adopted occupational health and safety standards, but many of them remain weak. These standards set the rules for which specific actions (or measures) are taken—like setting up a shaded area (a measure) once a certain temperature threshold is reached (the standard). At least 18 U.S. states introduced heat protection measures in 2025, doubling the amount introduced from just 2023.

California is known as having some of the strongest outdoor worker protections in the world. After certain temperature thresholds are reached, employers are required to provide workers with a variety of safety measures. For instance, at 80 degrees Fahrenheit, shade and water must be accessible. At 95 degrees Fahrenheit, more frequent breaks and strict monitoring for worker illness become enforceable. So far, this has shown to be somewhat successful. A recent study in Health Affairs found that increased enforcement of these laws was associated with a 33% reduction in worker deaths (2010–2014), followed by an additional 51% decline after policy revisions (2015–2020). This ranges from things like bilingual publication education and awareness-raising to mandated shade and water breaks. As this problem becomes more pronounced, California will serve as a global model for the design and implementation of heat enforcement mechanisms.

Age and Heat

While there is growing recognition of workers’ vulnerability to extreme temperatures and increased implementation of protections, major problems still remain. Age is one of the most underexplored and increasingly concerning factors related to heat in the workplace.

As the body ages, it becomes less able to deal with extreme heat for many reasons. Older bodies hold more heat than younger ones. An elderly heart does not circulate blood as well. Sweat gland volume decreases with aging. Add the fact that older folks have more cardiovascular, arthritis, and respiratory problems, which heighten in extreme temperatures, and the problems of age and heat compound.

To make matters more complicated, the outdoor workforce is largely an older one as well. The median age for an American farmer is 58 years old and over a third of American farm owners are 65 and older, making it one of the oldest occupations in the country. (However, there are signs that more young people are becoming farm owners, even if their numbers remain relatively limited overall.) Although the average age of farmworkers—those who raise and harvest crops—is still relatively young at 40, the workforce is still aging, especially those who are foreign-born workers in the United States. Construction is another occupation with a growing share of older workers. These numbers largely track globally as well. Not enough young people are entering into careers as farm owners, farmworkers, or in the trades more broadly. This has resulted in shortages of workers and a lack of skills for workers across these sectors that are vital for a climate transition.

The risks here, especially in agriculture, cannot be overstated. Not having enough new farmworkers puts global food production in danger. The increased corporate consolidation of farmland makes the prospect of farm ownership out of reach for many young people who might want to be farm owners, but neoliberal social and political conditions are also working against them. And thus far both the climate and labor movement have treated agricultural transformation as the boogeyman the right-wing wants it to be. Agriculture represents roughly one-fifth to one-third of global greenhouse gas emissions, mostly from livestock. According to a 2025 United Nations report, these emissions are projected to increase by 6% over the coming decade based on the path we’re on. More emissions make the collapse of food systems a possibility as we approach dangerous climate tipping points.

Agriculture is one of the main drivers of biodiversity loss and a major source of water pollution, and the meat packing industry is among the most exploitative for workers, animals, and local ecosystems. How we navigate our current relationship to the land will determine our future.

Capital’s Solution:
Technology, Unemployment, and Child Labor

Agricultural companies and government entities are well aware of the risks that food systems face. Some have noted technological changes like indoor farming or robotics as the way capital will approach the convergence of an aging workforce, global heating, and the risk of decreasing food production.

But something more pernicious is beginning to bubble under the surface. Over the last several years we have seen a growing trend among governments and right-wing movements trying to weaken child labor laws. Twenty-eight states across the country have introduced bills to weaken child labor laws, even as child labor violations have increased by a dramatic 283% from 2015 to 2023. These policies have been explicitly introduced as a way to deal with worker shortages—including those expected to worsen as the current workforce retires and the incoming younger generation lacks the necessary skills, especially in agriculture and construction. On a global scale, child labor has been somewhat in flux since the Covid-19 pandemic. Shortly after the pandemic, the number of children in child labor increased to a high of 160 million (compared to around 152 million in 2017), but as of 2025 has decreased to somewhere around 138 million, according to UNICEF’s most recent study. Still, we are nowhere near eliminating child labor. As the report notes, “current rates [of progress] remain too slow, and the world has fallen short of reaching the 2025 global elimination target. To end it within the next five years, current rates of progress would need to be 11 times faster.”

Child labor is especially concerning in agriculture, where it is more common than in any other industry. Sixty-one percent of all child laborers throughout the world work in agriculture, including farming, fishing, aquaculture, forestry, and livestock. A significant portion also work in other outdoor industries like mining and construction. Most often, these are kids who are unpaid and the children of adults who already work in these industries. As a result of entering the workforce so early on in life, children lose access to an education, experience impaired physical development, and face a significantly higher risk of disability or premature death as adults. By maintaining and supporting the system of child labor, capital prioritizes short-term profits over the development of a healthy, long-term workforce.

Only recently have research institutions and international entities like the International Labor Organization and the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization started to call out the warning signs of the current and worsening problem of child labor, extreme heat, and the aging outdoor workforce. What makes climate change unique compared to other issues confronting humanity is its ability to present new problems while exacerbating preexisting ones. For example, a family living in poverty already has to make difficult decisions regarding how they will make an income and sustain themselves. Then a climate disaster hits their region, making them even more vulnerable and potentially poorer. In order to supplement an already desperate income, or reach productivity quotas, a family will consider introducing one or more of their children into the workforce, despite the risks and dangers associated with it. The poor get poorer and the vulnerable become yet more vulnerable in a warming world.

You would be hard pressed to find companies or governments suggesting that child labor is something they are considering as a remedy to increased warming and an aging outdoor workforce. Nestlé and other major international companies have always condemned child labor in rhetoric while letting it happen within their supply chains, for instance. The trends suggest that, while neither companies nor governments will advocate for the use of child labor, child labor is likely to grow in a warming world because worsening conditions will make it easier to exploit vulnerable children.

Scholars and activists in this field recognize that the data on relationships between climate change and child labor are sparse. Nonetheless, things seem to be pointing toward an increase in child labor as the world warms, whether it is as a result of already weak systems to support labor and children or something more deliberate. One study of four countries responding to increased warming and climate disasters found that while “available data does not suggest that climatic shocks will generally lead to either an increase or a decrease in child labour…where shocks and slow on-set events are identified to affect child labour, they are more likely to increase its incidence rather than decrease it.” In a 2025 survey of Nepalese brick workers, researchers found that 35% of adult brick and carpet workers—including parents of child laborers—said climate events influenced their decision to have their families work in these sectors, which are highly vulnerable to forced labor. How pronounced the increase in child labor may become will depend on a variety of factors rather than just a simple causal relationship in which rising temperatures or more frequent climate disasters inevitably lead to more child labor in certain regions. Already existing child labor laws, the strength of youth and labor movements in certain countries, and what kinds of major industries exist in these geographies, are among the elements that will influence how likely child labor will increase as a result of warming. In order to know what the greater predictors will be, we first need to be attentive to the problem. And we are only just beginning to be attentive. Nonetheless, the conditions are ripe for increased child labor to become a “solution” in the face of worker shortages, an aging workforce, and the potential collapse of global food systems as a result of global heating.

What Is to Be Done?

These are difficult problems but there is much that can be done. To begin with, in order to prevent the problem from getting worse (or becoming uncontrollable) emissions in outdoor industries such as agriculture and construction need to halt and come as close to zero as possible. Unfortunately, these are two industries where emissions are expected to rise in the coming decades.

This makes organizing workers one of the most important things we can do for climate politics and the prospects of more child labor in a rapidly heating world. Worker-led climate policy, in any sector, offers much better prospects for binding and sustained climate policy. This does not mean the work will be easy. Union leaders in the agriculture and construction sectors are some of the most conservative on climate politics. It’s unlikely that an enlightened trade union leadership will become climate champions. A rank-and-file approach is more likely to succeed and actually provide us with the comprehensive vision we need for building a climate-safe world. As I have written elsewhere, getting climate conscious young people to salt and pepper workplaces—entering key industries and unions to organize them and make them more militant—is one underexplored option with a lot of potential. Farming, construction industries, and unions would especially benefit from this strategy.

Ultimately, a militant, radicalized, and climate-conscious young working class will have to use the leverage of strikes to change social, economic, and climate conditions, compelling businesses and the state to concede—or better, to be appropriated by workers and communities themselves. We have seen what power farmers in particular have when climate policy is imposed upon them. Governments in several cases across the world have had to retreat from efforts to curb agricultural emissions due to popular protest mobilizations by farmers. For example, France’s 2020 farmers’ protest saw the reversal of key green regulations and increased pressure on the European Union to backtrack on a variety of farming measures. Dutch farmers have engaged in similar mobilizations as well.

But this is not because all farmers are “anti-environment” or do not care about climate change. Discontent with environmental policies imposed on farmers is often driven less by the policies themselves than by broader concerns such as the cost of living, lax trade rules on imports, and fears that farmers will lose access to their land. This means that successful climate policies need to not just focus on emissions or technological capability, but on enabling a kind of politics focused on people’s fundamental needs, including the right to clean air, water, and the atmosphere.

A basic-needs-first approach to climate policy is not just good for building political power or limiting “greenlash” against climate policy. As noted, one of the major drivers of child labor is the economic conditions that families face. Income and poverty remain the highest determinant for whether a child or teenager will enter into the workforce. But something spoken about less is the relationship between childcare, health care, and farming. The lack of childcare is one of the biggest issues at play here. Most farming happens in rural areas which often lack access to childcare facilities and the income to pay for such care. According to a recent survey of U.S. farmers, “74% of farm families experienced childcare challenges within the last five years, most often due to cost and availability, followed by distance to childcare and quality of childcare.” This lack of childcare availability puts children at risk in both a non-labor and labored sense: children are more susceptible to bodily harm by being exposed to the conditions of farms just by being on site, and prone to laboring with their families since off-site childcare is often unattainable. Childcare is a preventative climate policy.

Once one thread on the knot of child labor, the future of work, and climatic conditions are pulled, one can see how structural the problem is. Child labor is often the result of poverty, which is a result of power imbalances and inequities in global capitalism. The system’s drive for endless growth and resource extraction has been a primary cause of the climate crisis, which has exacerbated the problem of child labor and made the existing workforce more vulnerable to exploitation. Any analysis or policy solution that does not account for the fact that one “issue area” is inevitably connected to another is bound to fail.

Unfortunately, the problem is going to get worse before it gets better, especially in an era of growing nationalism, anti-immigrant sentiment, and increasing youth unemployment. What is beginning to emerge with our vulnerable outdoor workforce offers the sharpest example of what a warming world portends for us and our children. Thus far governments and corporations have been inept at best or inflamed an already terrible situation at worst. The only way forward is to connect our shared struggle, stand in international solidarity with one another, and build the power necessary to change the world. Anything less is not up to the task.

Sources: Ava UFW Foundation, “Elizabeth Talamante,” UFW Foundation, April 22, 2024 (ufwfoundation.org); UFW Foundation, “Farm Worker Voices,” Farm Worker Voices, April 22, 2024 (farmworkervoices.org); Clara Migoya, “Arizona’s heat puts outdoor workers at risk of illness, death,” AZ Central, June 7, 2024 (azcentral.com); “Record 639 billion work hours lost to heat in 2024,” The Guardian, October 30, 2025 (theguardian.com); “The 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change,” The Lancet, October 28, 2025 (thelancet.com); Fenit Nirappil, “Inactivity in a warming world could spur hundreds of thousands of deaths,” Washington Post, March 16, 2026 (washingtonpost.com); Adam Dean and Jamie McCallum, “California’s Heat Standard And Heat-Related Deaths Among Outdoor Workers,” Health Affairs, December 2, 2025 (healthaffairs.org); United Nations, “Projected 6% increase in global livestock emissions,” United Nations, July 15, 2025 (un.org); “Bills to weaken child labor laws introduced in 28 states,” Economic Policy Institute, May 14, 2024 (epi.org); UNICEF, “Child Labour: Global estimates 2024, trends and the road forward,” UNICEF, June 12, 2025 (unicef.org); Florence Becot and Shoshanah Inwood, “Childcare in Agriculture: Key for Children’s Safety and the Economic Viability of Farm Businesses,” Marshfield Clinic Research Institute, May 1, 2023 (marshfieldresearch.org).