No Matter How You Look at It, the Big Beautiful Bill is a Monstrosity
Here are three views of the bill's horrific distributional consequences.
U.S. July existing home sales pace fastest in two years. But, as this Bloomberg article says, "The number of previously-owned unsold homes on the market jumped 7.3 percent to 4.09 million in July, a "notable" increase, according to Lawrence Yun, the Realtors' chief economist. At the current sales pace, it would take 9.4 months to sell those houses, the same as in June." And much of this is foreclosure-driven.
Also, oil prices have reached their higheest leevels this year. As more and more people argue that the old relationship between risk and the US dollar (more risky investing means a lower dollar) is breaking down, it's interesting to see some commodities (which gain on dollar weakness) maintaining this movement.
Meanwhile, more worries (courtesy of Economist's View) on commercial property. This, as well as the fact that prime lending is now failing at a greater rate than subprime, and will continue to do so as unemployment remains very high, must be considered when evaluating the state of the property market. There's a real chance that a dive in prime home lending or commercial property lending--or both--may take the whole sector back down, and with it, prospects for economic recovery.