Trump’s Midterm Rebuke and Economic Hardship

Let me start by recognizing that the economy is not the only reason the electorate turned against Trump and his Republican Party in the November 2 midterm elections.   

Can I earn your indulgence by stipulating that the war with Iran, the growing disillusionment with politicians’ failure to improve people’s lives, the brazen, in-your-face corruption of the Trump administration, and the unspeakable cruelty of ICE’s enforcement of repressive immigration policies all played crucial roles in the electoral rebuke of President Donald Trump and his party?

That said, the negative economic impacts of the Trump administration’s policies, together with the punishing inequality that has persisted for decades, surely played a key role in the midterm election results.

Let’s tote up these negative impacts by answering the following question: Are most people better off now than they were two years ago, when Trump began his second term? Then I’ll turn to the generational economic decline that has affected most of us.

Let Me Count the Ways Your Economic Conditions Have Gotten Worse

Wages 
Despite the Trump White House welcoming you to a “GOLDEN AGE” (caps in the original Truth Social post), your paycheck doesn’t go any further at the Cheesecake Factory—or most other places—than it did when Trump took office. In September 2026, average hourly earnings for private-sector workers, adjusted for inflation, were identical to what they had been in January 2025: $11.24 per hour. Rising consumer prices had wiped out any gains in purchasing power from larger paychecks. That figure was also lower than the $11.38 (adjusted for inflation) hourly wage in February 2026, before Trump’s war with Iran pushed inflation rates even higher. The Trump administration also claimed that mass deportations of immigrants would mean “higher wages” for U.S.-born workers. But in 2025, the median usual weekly earnings for U.S.-born workers grew more slowly than those of foreign-born workers.

Inflation and How It Affected the Cost of Living
Over the last year (from September 2025 to September 2026), prices rose 3.6%, well above the 2.9% inflation rate recorded in 2024, the last full year of the Biden administration. Pushed higher by Trump’s war with Iran, the price of a gallon of gasoline on the eve of the midterm election was $1.06 higher than when Trump took office, a 34% increase. Diesel cost $2.57 more per gallon, a 69% increase, while home heating oil  rose $2.20 per gallon, a 56% increase. From January 2025 to late 2026, electricity prices increased by 12.5%, beef prices by 17.9%, ground coffee prices by 32.9% and motor vehicle and maintenance costs by 11.7%. On top of that, labor shortages in industries dependent on immigrant labor have driven up prices. For instance, the price of Red Delicious apples increased 21.3% in the last year (from September 2025 to September 2026).  

All these price increases surely constitute an affordability crisis. Contrary to what Trump claims, it’s no hoax. Then, of course, there’s the spike in health care costs, which has been especially devastating. In 2026, workers’ contributions to employer-provided health insurance plans increased by an average of 16% for single coverage and 9% for family coverage, as reported by KFF, a health policy research organization. Meanwhile, without the enhanced subsidies that the Republican-controlled Congress failed to renew, premiums for people who rely on the Affordable Care Act for health insurance doubled on average. Many people won’t be able to pay the higher premiums and will just go without health insurance. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that eight million more people will be uninsured by 2035. And that says nothing of the millions who will lose Medicaid coverage due to cuts imposed by Trump’s 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

Jobs
Trump’s job creation record is tarnished as well. The economy has created an average of 47,300 jobs a month since Trump took office. But that’s only about one-quarter of the 186,000 monthly average in 2024, the last year of the Biden administration. On top of that, nearly all the job growth has been concentrated in just one sector: health care and social assistance, which includes counseling, caregiving, childcare, and vocational support jobs. Without job gains in this sector, the economy would have lost jobs during Trump’s second term.  Finally, Trump’s promise that his tariffs would revitalize U.S. manufacturing has fallen flat. In October 2026, manufacturing accounted for just 8% of U.S. employment, which was no higher than when Trump took office in January 2025 and below the 8.5% share when his first term began in January 2017. 

Trump’s immigration and deportation policies have also constrained labor force growth, which in turn has helped keep the overall unemployment rate from rising. Nonetheless, the share of unemployed workers who had been out of work for more than six months reached 27.6% in October 2026, the highest level since February 2016. New entrants to the labor force, typically recent high school and college graduates, are having an especially tough time finding their first jobs. In October 2026, they made up 11.1% of the unemployed, up from 9.6% in January 2025. 

A Golden Age for the Rich

Trump has presided over a golden age for those at the top, not a golden age for most people. The ever-worsening inequality behind this gold-plated economy for the rich began decades ago.

Comparing economic conditions in 1970 with those today throws into sharp relief the costs that decades of rising inequality have imposed on most of us.  In 1970, about one-fifth of U.S. income (21.1%) went to the bottom 50% of households. That was a far cry from equality, but the bottom half of the population received roughly twice the share of income going to the richest 1% of households (10.7%). By 2025, however, the income share of the bottom 50% had fallen to just 13.3%, while the share going to the top 1% had nearly doubled to 20.5%.

In 1970, 92% of 30-year-olds (who were born in 1940) had higher household incomes (corrected for inflation) than their parents had at the same age. By 2014, that figure had dropped to barely half. Only 50.3% of children born in 1984 earned more than their parents had at age 30.

 In 1970, labor compensation (wages and benefits) accounted for 58.2% of the nation’s gross domestic income, while corporate profits accounted for 7.1%. By the first quarter of 2026, labor’s share of gross domestic income had fallen to 51%, its lowest level on record with data going back to 1947. Meanwhile, the share going to corporate profits had climbed to 12.1%, its highest level since 1950.

No wonder, as the Wall Street Journal columnist Greg Ip put it, “people are so miserable about the economy.” Donald Trump saw things differently. Addressing a Georgia campaign rally amid high gas prices, he told the crowd, “We’re making a freaking fortune.”

Trump’s “we” didn’t include most of the electorate, and voters rebelled. Thank goodness.

John Miller is a professor emeritus of economics at Wheaton College and a member of the Dollars & Sense collective.